JonClaw Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Woke up to one big rumble of thunder around 4am this morning. Nothing after that (or I slept through it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Poured all night with frequent lightning. 1.17" before 7pm last night, another 2.96" from 7pm to 7am this morning for a storm total of 4.13". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The loud claps of thunder woke me up as well, around 2:30 am. What a light show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The nam had most of the rain falling overnight and now the gfs and euro are also basically dry for this afternoon. Upton still going with numerous showers and 70% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The nam had most of the rain falling overnight and now the gfs and euro are also basically dry for this afternoon. Upton still going with numerous showers and 70% chance The 6z 4k NAM has scattered storms in the area around 00z tonight. The 00z GGEM also had numerous scattered storms and showers for late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The 06z GFS also keeps the front stalled out along the coast and develops a wave of low pressure for tomorrow night which brings another chance of rain, especially to coastal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 We may put in the low temperature for July early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The 12z 4k NAM is pretty dry for today but pretty wet for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Getting some heating now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 The vort triggering storms over NE PA should move across the area this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The vort triggering storms over NE PA should move across the area this afternoon. gfsNE_500_avort_006.gif Yeah I'm kind of puzzled why Mt. Holly dropped the FFW for its northern counties. Storms are firing now over NE PA and will move eastward. SPC meso shows that storms will have some decent CAPE and shear profiles to work with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Yeah I'm kind of puzzled why Mt. Holly dropped the FFW for its northern counties. Storms are firing now over NE PA and will move eastward. SPC meso shows that storms will have some decent CAPE and shear profiles to work with today. Lapse Rates are decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The 12z GGEM takes a short wave currently located over Mississippi, sends it off the NE FL coast by Thursday morning and develops it into a wave of low pressure that then tracks straight up the coast brining the entire region rains on Saturday and especially Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 the 12z GFS, the 12z NAM and the GEFS keep it off shore and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 the 12z GFS, the 12z NAM and the GEFS keep it off shore and weak. The 00z Euro has it sitting right off the NJ coast at 96 hours albeit not as strong as what the GGEM is advertising. We'll have to see what the 12z Euro brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Could this low be a tropical system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Could this low be a tropical system? Its not tropical in oragin. It's a short wave that's currently over the deep south that rounds the base of the trough and amplifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 87/74 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 Could this low be a tropical system? The CMC still hasn't upgraded their convective scheme, so it still has a ton of fantasy TC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Its not tropical in oragin. It's a short wave that's currently over the deep south that rounds the base of the trough and amplifies. Oh ok, I'm sure it could still bring in a ton of moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The CMC still hasn't upgraded their convective scheme, so it still has a ton of fantasy TC's. Say what you want about the CMC but this isn't a fantasy TC. It's not a TC at all, its a purley non tropical low that rounds the base of the trough and amplifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The CMC still hasn't upgraded their convective scheme, so it still has a ton of fantasy TC's. Euro is the only model showing a coastal storm for Friday and has been showing it for several runs. It's own ensembles are well east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Oh ok, I'm sure it could still bring in a ton of moisture though. Yeah it would have a direct feed to work with from the tropics. The GGEM also takes 98L into SE FL in ten days as a minimal TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Euro is the only model showing a coastal storm for Friday and has been showing it for several runs. It's own ensembles are well east though. The 12z GGEM has this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 Say what you want about the CMC but this isn't a fantasy TC. It's not a TC at all, its a purley non tropical low that rounds the base of the trough and amplifies. But it is the same idea here with it lowering pressures too much due to convective feedback. The low will be weaker than the CMC is showing. More along the line of the Euro and GFS which aren't contaminated by feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The euro continues to struggle in this pattern and has lost the Fri-Sat coastal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Very heavy rain in Ramsey, no thunder Lasted about 3 minutes, sun coming out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The euro continues to struggle in this pattern and has lost the Fri-Sat coastal again. The data assimilation will kick back in gear come December. They're just taking a little break while only a few 's are looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 The euro continues to struggle in this pattern and has lost the Fri-Sat coastal again. It's just a little east of earlier runs, but it continues with the weak wave inverted trough idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.