SACRUS Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Clouds will make it a challenge to reach 90 for some areas around the city but EWR, JFK and a good chink of CNJ look good to continue the heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 21, 2013 Author Share Posted July 21, 2013 Clouds will make it a challenge to reach 90 for some areas around the city but EWR, JFK and a good chink of CNJ look good to continue the heatwave. It was was pretty cool to see how far west that cutoff was pushed by the WAR last week. http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2013/07/17/the-amazing-retrograding-low-all-the-forecasters-are-talking-about/ The raob weather balloon at Pittsburgh Monday night had to climb to 600 decameters (6 kilometers) to reach the 500 millibar pressure level (Pressure at the surface is around 1000 millibars, so 500mb is about halfway through the atmosphere). The hotter the atmosphere, the higher you have to go to reach 500 millibars, and a 600 DM height is very rare indeed, and almost unheard of that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Mostly Cloudy. 84/58. Feels cooler and definitely drier. <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Much more comfortable day out there, high of only 84.5F so far here with dew points in the mid 60s. Here's to not breaking a sweat within a minute of being outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 The back of the heat has been broken. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the mean trough shifting into the Lakes/northeast for the next couple weeks w/ the WAR displaced eastward. Looks like nights will remain on the mild side the next several days with cooler high temperatures, then we'll begin to see the drier pushes reaching the coastal Northeast by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Much more comfortable day out there, high of only 84.5F so far here with dew points in the mid 60s. Here's to not breaking a sweat within a minute of being outdoors. I'm loving this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 4PM Roundup (streak may be over unless some late surge as we clear out from nw to se. TEB: 87 (88 high so far) NYC: 88 (88 high so far) EWR: 86 (88 high so far) LGA: 86 (86 high so far) JFK: 84 (88 high so far) ISP: 83 New Bnswk: 87 (88 high so far tday) BLM: 80 TTN; 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 counting today NYC has averaged 81.2 over the last 30 days...That is one of the hottest 30 day periods on record...todays minimum could drop below the mornings low which could make the average a little lower...tomorrow could be warmer than June 22nd so it would need to be recalculated up...Hottest 30 day periods...82.5 in 198081.9 in 187681.9 in 199981.8 in 200581.8 in 201081.6 in 195581.2 in 2013 .81.2 in 199381.1 in 199581.1 in 198881.0 in 196681.0 in 201180.9 in 1983 decade average since 1930...1930's 78.31940's 77.71950's 78.01960's 77.01970's 77.81980's 78.71990's 78.62000's 77.42010's 80.9ave.... 78.0 2012...79.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 very interesting info, uncle. of course, the next question is...any correllation between this and the following winter weather? counting today NYC has averaged 81.2 over the last 30 days...That is one of the hottest 30 day periods on record...todays minimum could drop below the mornings low which could make the average a little lower...tomorrow could be warmer than June 22nd so it would need to be recalculated up...Hottest 30 day periods...82.5 in 198081.9 in 187681.9 in 199981.8 in 200581.8 in 201081.6 in 195581.2 in 2013 .81.2 in 199381.1 in 199581.1 in 198881.0 in 196681.0 in 201180.9 in 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 very interesting info, uncle. of course, the next question is...any correllation between this and the following winter weather? probably nothing but it puts the heat wave into prospective...there are some great analogs though especially 2010, 1966, 1993 and 1995...A few duds are listed also...1988 and 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 very interesting info, uncle. of course, the next question is...any correllation between this and the following winter weather? Right under 2013 on that list is 1993 and 1995 lol, one can only dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Right under 2013 on that list is 1993 and 1995 lol, one can only dream. If I'm not mistaken, the pattern the Atlantic Hurricane season has in August/September is more a "canary in the coal mine" for how the upcoming winter will be than any kind of heat wave will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 If I'm not mistaken, the pattern the Atlantic Hurricane season has in August/September is more a "canary in the coal mine" for how the upcoming winter will be than any kind of heat wave will be. Really? It seems pretty quiet for that. Maybe there could be a 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 I see the term 'numerous showers' in the KOKX ZFP today. Usually I see that term for the NWSFO's in tropical zones like Key West and San Juan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 I see the term 'numerous showers' in the KOKX ZFP today. Usually I see that term for the NWSFO's in tropical zones like Key West and San Juan. Very wet times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2013 Author Share Posted July 22, 2013 The ridge will shift a few degrees east as we head into early August with plenty of opportunities for convection. 600 dm+ is about as strong a ridge that you are going to see south of the Canadian Maritimes. There is quite a SST anomaly in the areas which have been under ridging since April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Going forward what days will be our best chance for rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Going forward what days will be our best chance for rain? Looks like diurnal convection this afternoon and evening given marginal instability. Decent chance tomorrow as upper level trough and weak low pressure area bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Both the 06z NAM and GFS were 1-2"+ over the next four days for the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Looks like diurnal convection this afternoon and evening given marginal instability. Decent chance tomorrow as upper level trough and weak low pressure area bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Euro is pretty wet going forward. Has 2 coastal lows effecting us Friday and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Both the 06z NAM and GFS were 1-2"+ over the next four days for the I-95 corridor. GFS is completely dry for Wednesday thru Friday. It has temps in the 50s Thursday morning and low 80s at best for a high. Rain should be confined to this afternoon thru Tuesday evening. Euro is also dry Wednesday and Thursday but very wet from Thursday night thru Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Euro is pretty wet going forward. Has 2 coastal lows effecting us Friday and next week. NAM just came on board for the Friday soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 NAM just came on board for the Friday soaker. Its only out to 0z friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Its only out to 0z friday? Sim radar, h7 and h5 maps show it. But either way, it's the NAM at 84 hours. Euro is on its own right now within the global model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 some places are going to get dumped on tomorrow. vort max, low and warm front nearby, rich moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 some places are going to get dumped on tomorrow. vort max, low and warm front nearby, rich moisture Yep, plenty of PVA and precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 some places are going to get dumped on tomorrow. vort max, low and warm front nearby, rich moisture PWAT levels are pretty high as well because of the conditions you mentioned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Small t-storm has popped near the sea-breeze front over Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Was gloomy all morning. Raining now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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