IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 It's just a little east of earlier runs, but it continues with the weak wave inverted trough idea. North32America_msl_72.gif North32America_msl_120.gif What a huge slug of moisture sitting just offshore. Let's get that onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Thunder now with clear blue sky overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Lol storms look to being north and south of nyc, whats new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Good amount of sun today, temps near 90... 89 here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Lol storms look to being north and south of nyc, whats new They don't like the smog so they go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 18z 4k NAM continues to advertise a wet start at least to Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 The warm SST's off the coast under the long duration ridging look the Atlantic version of an El Nino. 600 dm....no problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 counting today NYC has averaged 81.7 over the last 30 days...That is one of the hottest 30 day periods on record......sixth hottest on record... Hottest 30 day periods... 82.5 in 1980 81.9 in 1876 81.9 in 1999 81.8 in 2005 81.8 in 2010 81.7 in 2013 81.6 in 1955 81.2 in 1993 81.1 in 1995 81.1 in 1988 81.0 in 1966 81.0 in 2011 80.9 in 1983 decade average since 1930... 1930's 78.3 1940's 77.7 1950's 78.0 1960's 77.0 1970's 77.8 1980's 78.7 1990's 78.6 2000's 77.4 2010's 80.9 ave.... 78.0 2012...79.5 updated...from 6/24 to 7/23... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The Canadian and NAM do have a decent bonified low pressure wave moving up the coast towards the end of the weak. It's not common that you see a bombing out low in the summertime unless it's of tropical origin. Should be noted that the CMC is notoriously aggressive with TC genesis and it's way more likely to see a Euro/GFS solution verify with a much weaker wave. CMC phase diagrams for fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 Getting very dark to my west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Southern Nassau missed again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Rained for less than a minute, thunder in the distance. What a joke its been around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 Southern Nassau missed again.... Had a beautiful CB here, but the heaviest went just to my north. Some brief moderate to heavy rain here and distant thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Southern Nassau missed again.... This. No storms here so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Radar picked up brief rotation over the LI sound. Perhaps a brief water spout? That part of the cell is headed towards the North Fork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Sky looks ominous in Port Jeff at 6:35 PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Sky looks ominous in Port Jeff at 6:35 PM... The NWS cooperative at adjacent Mt. Sinai with 2.01 inches of rain over the past 5 days and more seems likely momentarily.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Lol the storm literally formed north and south of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The storm in Suffolk looks like it'll remain to the north of me. This isn't funny anymore, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The NWS cooperative at adjacent Mt. Sinai with 2.01 inches of rain over the past 5 days and more seems likely momentarily.. Torrential downpour in progress here....there is never a lack of rain in this town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Wow, literally missed me by a few blocks. But it's not like it was worth it anyway. Absolutely no thunder and it probably would have been a light rain that would have lasted 10 secs. LI screw zone FTL. EDIT: We did manage to get a few drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Omg, it's actually raining. No thunder or lightning though. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Lol storms look to being north and south of nyc, whats new it's the UHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 The NWS cooperative at adjacent Mt. Sinai with 2.01 inches of rain over the past 5 days and more seems likely momentarily.. Mt Sinai reporting 0.40" rain from the storms moving through so far. Edit: Now at 0.91". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 it's the UHI sort of "Analysis by Bornstein and LeRoy (1990) has shown that New York City (NYC) affects both summer daytime thunderstorm formation and movement. During conditions with nearly calm regional flows, the NYC UHI initiated convective activity, thus producing a radar echo frequency maximum over the City. Moving thunderstorms, however, bifurcated and moved around the city due to a building-barrier-induced divergence effect. During such conditions, radar echo maxima were thus produced on both lateral edges of the City and downwind of the city, while a minimum was located over the city itself. The downwind maximum associated with moving convective storms is consistent with results from the classic METROMEX field study, which also showed a precipitation maximum downwind of St. Louis (Changnon, 1981). It is also consistent with the convective precipitation study of Selover (1997), which showed that moving summer convective storms over Phoenix, Arizona produce a precipitation minimum over the city in conjunction with surrounding lateral and downwind maximum values." http://www.met.sjsu.edu/faculty/bornstein/old/ATLANTA/UHILIN-ATLANTA-2000.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 it's the UHI How far downwind of NYC are we talking about regarding the precipitation maximum? Is it just east of Manhattan such as Brooklyn and Queens or more like Nassau/Suffolk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 i couldn't find the cited article. it probably depends on wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Second round of storms is a swing and a miss for my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 I'll upload a Heaven and Hell video I just saw outside later. The contrast between the Full Moon and the Thunderstorms are pretty astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 0z 4k has an insane amount of moisture being aimed at the northeast this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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