Guest Pamela Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Departures from Normal (Temp.)NYC Central ParkJanuary thru May2010: +2.742011: +0.502012: +4.642013: -0.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Late this week looks rather backdoorish to me - sfc high pressure slipping off the coast of New England should induce an onshore flow for the Thurs-Sat period. Additionally, the mean ridge position will remain in the SW/Central US IMO, with a continued NWLY flow in the Northeast. We'll probably approach our warmest temps of the month, or at least what we saw on June 1st, in the June 24-30th period. However, any spike to 90F will rapidly be cut back to near normal once again w/ mean troughiness in the Northeast. I expect June to finish near normal for most Northeast sites, maybe slightly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Late this week looks rather backdoorish to me - sfc high pressure slipping off the coast of New England should induce an onshore flow for the Thurs-Sat period. Additionally, the mean ridge position will remain in the SW/Central US IMO, with a continued NWLY flow in the Northeast. We'll probably approach our warmest temps of the month, or at least what we saw on June 1st, in the June 24-30th period. However, any spike to 90F will rapidly be cut back to near normal once again w/ mean troughiness in the Northeast. I expect June to finish near normal for most Northeast sites, maybe slightly below. I'm driving to Florida on the 30th if the weather cooperates...I won't drive if there's going to be a front along the east coast...I hate driving in the rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I'm driving to Florida on the 30th if the weather cooperates...I won't drive if there's going to be a front along the east coast...I hate driving in the rain... Slap some Rain-X on your car's windshield, it makes a world of difference, especially on the highway. I always make sure my car's windows are covered with Rain-X every month or so, as it really helps visability, especially in heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Slap some Rain-X on your car's windshield, it makes a world of difference, especially on the highway. I always make sure my car's windows are covered with Rain-X every month or so, as it really helps visability, especially in heavy rains. I drove a year with rainX and no wipers...later I found out it was only a loose conection but that's another story...rain slows people down and the road becomes slippery...There hasn't been many rides where I didn't get some rain along the way...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 NYC only needs 0.68" of rain for the new June record.If we don't close the deal with rain chances the next few days, then we will probably do it during the 7-10 day period with ring of fire convection. There shoud be the chance for MCS activity to begin in a week as the ridge to our west amplifies and storms roll east from Chicago. So the last week to ten days of the month look like we will return to a wetter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 NYC only needs 0.68" of rain for the new June record.If we don't close the deal with rain chances the next few days, then we will probably do it during the 7-10 day period with ring of fire convection. There shoud be the chance for MCS activity to begin in a week as the ridge to our west amplifies and storms roll east from Chicago. So the last week to ten days of the month look like we will return to a wetter pattern. I don't think we had an active ring of for a few summers now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I don't think we had an active ring of for for a few summers now We had numerous MCS complexes race east from the MW the last few years. We just had one the other day. The model signal is often when 20C temps at 850 mb surge toward Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Pretty decent increase in temps over the past hour or so over LI. Not sure what's causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Temp now up to 78 here in Merrick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Pretty decent increase in temps over the past hour or so over LI. Not sure what's causing it. Southerly winds turned more westerly..the NAM has 2m temperatures increasing from 68 to 73 on parts of Long Island by 03z with W/NW winds overnight. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/f15.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Boo hoo I can see disapointment on a few posters face about us not getting more rain The relief from the rain is welcome. Hopefully, it will last for awhile so that things dry out from the current highly saturated state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 12z NAM is spitting out some pretty good rain activity over the next two days. Looks to be hit or miss but where it does rain it could be heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 The GEFS, as well as the Euro are hinting at a warmer pattern as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 The GEFS, as well as the Euro are hinting at a warmer pattern as we go forward. Yup, rising heights out west and a trough displaced to our north over northeastern Canada. We should stay in a SW flow with lots of storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Surprise severe chance today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Surprise severe chance today? Yeah...in Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Small storm trying to pop already just to the north of me in Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 yea any chance we get a storm this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 12z Nam and Rgem shows some rain for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 1PM roundup TEB: 83 NYC: 81 EWR: 85 LGA: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 83 New Bnswk: 85 TTN: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Upgrade to slight risk just north of us and upgrade to 5% for wind and hail for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Just had a nice Florida like downpour in Vernon for 5 min. Love this type of day. Sun back out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 WOUS64 KWNS 171712 WOU1 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-180100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.130617T1715Z-130618T0100Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-180100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.130617T1715Z-130618T0100Z/ MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-011-013-015-019-180100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.130617T1715Z-130618T0100Z/ NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM SULLIVAN NYC001-007-017-021-025-027-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-071-077- 079-083-087-091-093-095-105-111-113-115-119-180100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.130617T1715Z-130618T0100Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO COLUMBIA DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM RENSSELAER ROCKLAND SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON WESTCHESTER RIC001-003-005-007-009-180100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.130617T1715Z-130618T0100Z/ RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT PROVIDENCE WASHINGTON VTC003-025-180100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.130617T1715Z-130618T0100Z/ VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON WINDHAM ANZ230-236-237-250-251-180100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0321.130617T1715Z-130618T0100Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BOSTON HARBOR NARRAGANSETT BAY BLOCK ISLAND SOUND COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...BGM...GYX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 We have SBCAPE exceeding 2000 K/JK across a large portion of the area, 45kts of effective shear, decent mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level lapse rates. Only thing missing is a bit more of a trigger, excpet storms are already firing in NJ and PA moving in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for SW CT and the Lower HV until 9PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong, but everything except mid-level lapse rates look good for NYC storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 12z SPC WRF is quite bullish for multiple rounds of storms today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 T-storms have fired up over NNJ and are moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 T-storms have fired up over NNJ and are moving east. Yea nothing too severe yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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