user13 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 That's some serious heavy rain down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 That's some serious heavy rain down there The question remains how far NW does it make it. Most of the modeling had that staying down towards the Delmarva region. Already off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Someone in Mercer County, NJ just reported 0.95" of rain in 15 minutes. A couple of folks in the Philly forum already reporting close to 2.0" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 forget about convection today if you live near nyc. the MCS to our south will rob us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 forget about convection today if you live near nyc. the MCS to our south will rob us So the severe warned cell in Monmouth County doesn't count? I find it hard to believe that we don't at least get clipped by the MCS. It's growing to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 So the severe warned cell in Monmouth County doesn't count? I find it hard to believe that we don't at least get clipped by the MCS. It's growing to the north. Monmouth isn't exactly near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Monmouth isn't exactly near NYC It's not? It borders Staten Island does it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Storms going up in NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Storms going up in NNJ Convection starting to ramp up now tot he North and West of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Beautiful cell with a TBSS just exploded to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 And it's stationary. Another cell going up by Caldwell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 forget about convection today if you live near nyc. the MCS to our south will rob us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Flash flood warnings going up all over the place and no flash flood watch in place. Seems like this caught a few off guard today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 The modeling wasn't terrible with this, it looks like the main batch of convection won't make it up here. Things appear to be falling apart somewhat as well. Maybe more convection will redevelop on the northern side of the main batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 You can see where the sagging front is, this storm is moving SE at 5MPH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNYC071-181915-/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0017.130618T1819Z-130618T1915Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY219 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...* UNTIL 315 PM EDT...* AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OTISVILLE...OR NEAR BLOOMINGBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIDDLETOWN...GOSHEN...FLORIDA AND CHESTERIN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TOGROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORSIMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BESTRUCK BY LIGHTNING.LAT...LON 4151 7448 4157 7442 4159 7438 4140 7410 4126 7448 4150 7463TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 326DEG 6KT 4150 7448$$JMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 gr2analyst 2013-06-18 14-11-52-65.png a few isolated cells. nyc is still in a relative hole compared to south jersey and the hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 a few isolated cells. nyc is still in a relative hole compared to south jersey and the hudson valley Yeah just teasing. The cell to my south already collapsed and provided a nice cool breeze. I agree that the NYC area shouldn't see more than a few heavy showers with thunder possible. Tenafly seems to have gotten hit pretty hard though. OKX OHP shows a nice area of 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 a few isolated cells. nyc is still in a relative hole compared to south jersey and the hudson valley Yeah the stuff moving in from PA to central NJ has mostly fallen apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Wow all that rain will stay to our south again? (Nyc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 impressive heat episode on the euro past day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Look like the rain will miss to our south. Great call forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Look like the rain will miss to our south. Great call forky I'm not so sure yet, the storms in NNJ might sag south if they can get together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Heavy rain here in freehold with occasional lightning..Im gonna go out on a limb and say the gfs is a little off for c/s NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Im in southern somerset. We have had a frw sprinkles thats all even though radar looked ominous at times just to the south. Right now we have a light rain shower but thankfully the rains are hitting a brickwall north of princeton and the heaviest stuff looks like it slready passed south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Radar starting to fill in and expand north Come on NYC record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Radar is filling rapdily over NNJ and NYC now. But our chances of any more strong convection have diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 It's thundering here in Western Nassau now. The convection is merging together under a very strong jet entrance region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Stronger t-storms are mostly over CT now. SW of there is just heavy rains, with some lighting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Pretty terrible for a nowcast from a convective model. Valid for one hour from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 That rain in Southern NJ is absolutely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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