Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Looking forward to this after the milddown TEMPS WILL MODERATE OUT BY MID WEEK AND LOOKS AS IF ATHERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWINGFOR TEMPS TO BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S POSSIBLY 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 GFS has -5 850s 0900 z for NCT, Euro -4, should be a 30-38 low depending on rad cooling and elevation-5C at H85 and clear/calm will lead to scraping of windshields for all except the hilltops. But the hilltops will get to experience a few chilly afternoons in the 57-64 range Sun-Wed like the forecast posted from Brad at NBC (as we've all been told countless times in the winter, the hills run 4-8F colder than BDL in the afternoon). With that forecast link from Twitter (thanks Blizz) showing 66, 61, 66, 69 for BDL...well chop the usual 4-8F off for the hills (probably even some upslope cooling from the "windy" conditions) and that's some beautiful mid-May weather.Low dews and breezy CAA conditions under puffy fair weather cumulous should make for a couple nice days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Those numbers are my normal highs , not Bradley's. Brad's 7-day high temps are for Mt. Tolland now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Looking forward to this after the milddown TEMPS WILL MODERATE OUT BY MID WEEK AND LOOKS AS IF A THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S POSSIBLY 80S. Hmm..I don't think so re 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Not one 80F + reading in the extended forecast, nor should there be on for this time of year: Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Monday Sunny, with a high near 61. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 63. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 74 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.82454867985505&lon=-72.38685607910156 Monday night's low temperature could be trouble with a frost/freeze a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Not one 80F + reading in the extended forecast, nor should there be on for this time of year: Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Monday Sunny, with a high near 61. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 63. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 74 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.82454867985505&lon=-72.38685607910156 Monday night's low temperature could be trouble with a frost/freeze a possibility. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Last mention of snow for the season? TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-MAY STANDARDS...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN FACT WITH SUMMIT-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 This mornings very precise Directv\Weather Channel forecast for my zip (13739) had a high of 44 on Monday. NWS saying 50 currently. Looks like it will be a wee bit chilly either way with both calling for lows around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 I'm looking forward to a seasonal cold snap but like others have said, nothing too unusual for this neck of the woods. If we could repeat this (save the freezing temps) next month and July, I'd be happy. For the record, here's some stats for this period at my station over the past 29 years: Normal Max/Min: 67/44 on 5/12 and 68/45 by the 15th Record Low Max/Mins for the period: 5/12: 49 in 1998/28 in 2010 5/13: 48 in 2010/27 in 2005 5/14: 50 in 2002/29 in 1996 5/15: 48 in 1995/31 in 1996 I'm thinking that the record low max's will stand but I stand a chance at breaking the record lows on the 14th & 15th. FWIW, average date of last 28° temp has been April 27th and 32° has been May 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 I'm looking forward to a seasonal cold snap but like others have said, nothing too unusual for this neck of the woods. If we could repeat this (save the freezing temps) next month and July, I'd be happy. For the record, here's some stats for this period at my station over the past 29 years: Normal Max/Min: 67/44 on 5/12 and 68/45 by the 15th Record Low Max/Mins for the period: 5/12: 49 in 1998/28 in 2010 5/13: 48 in 2010/27 in 2005 5/14: 50 in 2002/29 in 1996 5/15: 48 in 1995/31 in 1996 I'm thinking that the record low max's will stand but I stand a chance at breaking the record lows on the 14th & 15th. FWIW, average date of last 28° temp has been April 27th and 32° has been May 12th. Record low maxes in May have close to zero chance under sunny skies. I believe all of them are some sort of onshore flow/precip event...at least here. Maybe there is an exception or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Record low maxes in May have close to zero chance under sunny skies. I believe all of them are some sort of onshore flow/precip event...at least here. Maybe there is an exception or two. Yeah, that's telling in my record. On the 12th the low max was 49 and the low that day was 46°. It must have been cloudy because I recorded 0.7" of rain. All the other days had rain as well. The 2002 one on the 14th was in the middle of a three day rain even when we had around 2.5" of rain. A week later I had sleet mixed in, though I think places north of me had a little more. All that after a full blown heatwave and mild winter - one of the reasons why you can never give up on good weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 I'm looking forward to a seasonal cold snap but like others have said, nothing too unusual for this neck of the woods. If we could repeat this (save the freezing temps) next month and July, I'd be happy. For the record, here's some stats for this period at my station over the past 29 years: Normal Max/Min: 67/44 on 5/12 and 68/45 by the 15th Record Low Max/Mins for the period: 5/12: 49 in 1998/28 in 2010 5/13: 48 in 2010/27 in 2005 5/14: 50 in 2002/29 in 1996 5/15: 48 in 1995/31 in 1996 I'm thinking that the record low max's will stand but I stand a chance at breaking the record lows on the 14th & 15th. FWIW, average date of last 28° temp has been April 27th and 32° has been May 12th. Awesome stats dude...impressive record keeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 The 2000s had some cold max's that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Awesome stats dude...impressive record keeping. Thanks man. I started in high school when I knew I wanted to go to school for meteorology and it was all paper back then. Sometime in the 90s I converted to Excel which allows me to "massage" the data a lot more and automate a lot of things. Once you have it all in it's easy to see the data but it took a lot of work to put 15 years of data in and create all the stats. Now it takes about 20 minutes a month to setup the next month and everything is automatic from there - records, rankings, totals, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Thanks man. I started in high school when I knew I wanted to go to school for meteorology and it was all paper back then. Sometime in the 90s I converted to Excel which allows me to "massage" the data a lot more and automate a lot of things. Once you have it all in it's easy to see the data but it took a lot of work to put 15 years of data in and create all the stats. Now it takes about 20 minutes a month to setup the next month and everything is automatic from there - records, rankings, totals, etc. What date do you figure is your average last frost date? As near as I can estimate from various sources, it seems to be May 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 What date do you figure is your average last frost date? As near as I can estimate from various sources, it seems to be May 11th. If his average last 32F was May 12th, his average last frost would figure to be a bit later than that since frost can occur with 2m temps a bit above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 If his average last 32F was May 12th, his average last frost would figure to be a bit later than that since frost can occur with 2m temps a bit above freezing. The average last 37° temp is about two weeks May 27th but I've always used May 17th as the date after which it was safe to plant sensative stuff. We haven't come close to that in the past 3 years but in 2009 it was June 1st and in 2007 it was June 7th. I'm a relatively cold spot to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 It's even more amazing that Kevin's last avg frost is 4/15, but the avg first frost is 9/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 We need the average last hard freeze date, 1/2 hour of temps at 31F don't count. Amazing how mr heat and humidity is nearly absent from this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 It's even more amazing that Kevin's last avg frost is 4/15, but the avg first frost is 9/15. I thought the last frost date was 3/1 - that's when all winter weather of any kind ends here. I think that Lake Placid may have a 9/15 frost date, but certainly not anywhere in Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 We need the average last hard freeze date, 1/2 hour of temps at 31F don't count. Amazing how mr heat and humidity is nearly absent from this thread. Sorry I don't have that level of detail. A freeze is a freeze in my book. You could always start your own record.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 I'm looking forward to a seasonal cold snap but like others have said, nothing too unusual for this neck of the woods. If we could repeat this (save the freezing temps) next month and July, I'd be happy. For the record, here's some stats for this period at my station over the past 29 years: Normal Max/Min: 67/44 on 5/12 and 68/45 by the 15th Record Low Max/Mins for the period: 5/12: 49 in 1998/28 in 2010 5/13: 48 in 2010/27 in 2005 5/14: 50 in 2002/29 in 1996 5/15: 48 in 1995/31 in 1996 I'm thinking that the record low max's will stand but I stand a chance at breaking the record lows on the 14th & 15th. FWIW, average date of last 28° temp has been April 27th and 32° has been May 12th. Wow, it's awesome to have such detailed data just 2 or 3 miles away from where I live! Thanks for keeping and sharing such great stats. For the past few years that I've been keeping records, our snow and temperature numbers are nearly identical, which is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Sorry I don't have that level of detail. A freeze is a freeze in my book. You could always start your own record.... I'm joking, CT Blizz told me that 31F here last saturday does not count as a freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 I thought the last frost date was 3/1 - that's when all winter weather of any kind ends here. I think that Lake Placid may have a 9/15 frost date, but certainly not anywhere in Connecticut. Avg is 9/18 at my place (only 15 yr records) but that's even farther from CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 I think that Lake Placid may have a 9/15 frost date, but certainly not anywhere in Connecticut. Damn good guess...though its 9/14 and that's the freeze date not frost. SLK and Lake Placid seem like they can frost (36F) any month of the year. Just look at the fact that the earliest dates of 32F or lower of the Adirondacks sites is in July. Lake Placid had a freeze on July 2 in 1992 and SLK had a freeze on July 28, 2001. The Adirondacks are an icebox...but that's what you get when the "valleys" are situated at 1500-2200ft. Not many places in the east like the northern Adirondacks where you can be at 2000ft (Lake Placid town center) but also be the lowest elevation around, surrounded by 4-5,000ft peaks. Very short growing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 My point is that Tolland does not have an average frost date of 9/15, it's probably more like 10/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Damn good guess...though its 9/14 and that's the freeze date not frost. SLK and Lake Placid seem like they can frost (36F) any month of the year. Just look at the fact that the earliest dates of 32F or lower of the Adirondacks sites is in July. Lake Placid had a freeze on July 2 in 1992 and SLK had a freeze on July 28, 2001. The Adirondacks are an icebox...but that's what you get when the "valleys" are situated at 1500-2200ft. Not many places in the east like the northern Adirondacks where you can be at 2000ft (Lake Placid town center) but also be the lowest elevation around, surrounded by 4-5,000ft peaks. Very short growing season. HIE had 32F on 7/27/01 and 31F on 7/28/01. I'm sure BML will pull it off eventually too. First Ct Lake had 29F on that 7/2/92 date...not much of a growing season there that summer thanks to Pinatubo. They had a couple of below freezing lows in early July of 1962 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 My point is that Tolland does not have an average frost date of 9/15, it's probably more like 10/5. I think he was kidding. Ironically though, my average date of the first 37° temp is 9/15. That's really not a freeze or a hard freeze but under the right conditions frost is possible. The average 32° is 10/3 so you're not that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 I think he was kidding. Ironically though, my average date of the first 37° temp is 9/15. That's really not a freeze or a hard freeze but under the right conditions frost is possible. The average 32° is 10/3 so you're not that far off. Of course. Spring comes early and so do first frosts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 My first freeze is typical mid-late October...usually after Oct 20..though in 2012 it came the morning of the HFD Marathon. Not sure what anyone is talking about,,but I don't get frost here until winter..Just goes straight freeze. Anyone with one iota of wx knowledge knows hilltops don't get frosts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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