2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

[ORH_wxman]

Wouldn't that make 3 months of negative departure's in a row for Bradley?

 

 

Yes. I didn't think February was negative there but it was.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah that brutal first 10-14 days of April really ruined this month

[ORH_wxman]

The MOS thing is funny. It's statistical so if you have to bump the maxes up on every clear day then something is wrong with the product. Like Scoot said, there's times to go above it. Downslope dandies with anomalous warmth or March torches with no snowcover or wet ground are good times. Modelology FTL.

 

High pressures to our northeast are a bad time to bump MOS temps.

[Damage In Tolland]

You were around last summer right? Its just the normal flip to summer Blizz. Warmer in the summer with higher dews, while colder and snowier when in winter mode.

The last few weeks his temps have been running several degrees colder than all Tolland mesos. Some at higher els

[Typhoon Tip]

ORH today was 67F on both GFS/NAM MOS. High thus far is 64F and it is down to 63F last hour.

 

 

Bumping up temps when its sunny doesn't always work. The wind flow is wrong...that's what happens when we have a high almost on top of us and to the east.

 

 

Yeah this is true there.    We have south or SE winds here in the interior, and that's not really ideal for that rule of thumb.  

 

That really should only apply first of all to off-shore winds ... WSW to NNW part of the dial.  Anything else risks marine contamination so it won't work.    The issue is, a cold front moves off the coast over night and the wind is NW under blue bird blue skies and the MOS says 62  ... post April 1, that situation often enough will post a 64 or 65 on the 6-hourly maxes.   Same is true for warm sectors...  74 type deeply mixed warm sectors tend to put up a 76 ..77.   

 

But having a south wind with partial overcast  over the good old, sticks out into the N Atlantic Southern New England, not shocking to even be on the cool side.  

[Mr Torchey]

Hard to believe how perfect the last 6 days were. Could not buy any rain today and tomorrow we start another stretch of bse perfection Classico style. Not easy to do in April in New England.

Just wow!

[dendrite]

they did show a few more days of rain/drizzle than what is being forecast now

There was extremely light QPF in the mean from what I remember. I don't remember any precip making it NE of CT either. All it takes is a few members spitting out 0.10-0.25" to skew the mean to 0.05" too. I don't think anyone here truly expected days of miserable conditions NE of NYC. It has mostly been innocent trolling back and forth.

[Allsnow]

3 of the 4 sites for BOX may finish below normal.

I thought all of them where going to finish above?

Where's the torch?

[Quincy]

BDl/IJD can probably do a 71-72 today and 74-75 tomorrow.

 

 

Like I said to Will earlier, Sat -Tuesday looks great and right on. Your numbers this weekend in mid 60's are too cool. All local stations have low 70's minimum

 

 

Add at least 3-5 degrees each day to those high temps with dry ground and April sun and mixing

 

 

I would go 73-76 at BDL every day starting Saturday. And 67-71 here and ORH

How are those verification numbers?

[forkyfork]

either way both the day 10 euro and its ens mean show a much better pattern for getting rain/convection to make it east of the midwest

[dendrite]

Quincy with the checkmate.

[weatherwiz]

What? I never said anything like that

 

You said 72-76 or something for BDL through Tuesday

[Allsnow]

Bdr -0.0 going into today. 3 months in a row below?

[Sugarloaf1989]

The last few weeks his temps have been running several degrees colder than all Tolland mesos. Some at higher els

 

 

Um, okay, you mean in the last few weeks since Jekyll cold switch to Hyde hot.

 

Weatherbug's in town must be in error as well I guess as well. High of 62F in town today, but their termo sensor is probably broken, in the sun, up someones @ss or otherwise incorrect:

 

http://weather.weatherbug.com/CT/Coventry-weather.html?zcode=z6286&zip=06238

[ORH_wxman]

I thought all of them where going to finish above?

Where's the torch?

 

I was trying to tell people it would be close...those who were spiking footballs 2 weeks ago.

 

This is my kind of weather though. These mid 60s have been awesome. I hate the 46F and sunny weather...useless to me, but this stuff is great for walking outdoors and grilling dinner on the back deck.

[Quincy]

I was trying to tell people it would be close...those who were spiking footballs 2 weeks ago.

 

This is my kind of weather though. These mid 60s have been awesome. I hate the 46F and sunny weather...useless to me, but this stuff is great for walking outdoors and grilling dinner on the back deck.

Pleasant for golf as well. Sprinkle in some showers in May and we'll be golden, so we can avoid Kev's end of the world drought.

[Sugarloaf1989]

People are really watering their lawns in April? Smdh

 

Primarily only in dustbowl Tolland where it's obviously much hotter and dryer than anywhere else in Northeastern Connecticut.

[Allsnow]

I was trying to tell people it would be close...those who were spiking footballs 2 weeks ago.

This is my kind of weather though. These mid 60s have been awesome. I hate the 46F and sunny weather...useless to me, but this stuff is great for walking outdoors and grilling dinner on the back deck.

Agree 100% with you. The last few days have been wonderful.

[ORH_wxman]

Pleasant for golf as well. Sprinkle in some showers in May and we'll be golden, so we can avoid Kev's end of the world drought.

 

 

Yeah still havent hit the course yet...but this is exactly the type of weather I like for golf. Usually 60s and 70s. Hopefully this week I can sneak out for a round or two.

 

 

I agree with forky too that we may have a better shot at some rain around 5/7-5/12 or so. Somewhere during that 2nd week fo May the block looks to start breaking down...but still a logn ways out.

[Damage In Tolland]

How are those verification numbers?

How were yours? i believe you had 68 for BDL yesterday and rain showers today and tomorrow there

[Mr Torchey]

In the midst of a 13 out of 14 day stretch of pure perfection, its mind boggling really in sne in April okx says sunshine here starting tomorrow and every day after that for the next 7.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Thursday could really torch ahead of the weak backdoor on Friday

[weatherwiz]

I did 9 rounds of golfing for the first time last summer.  For the first holes I shot right handed and couldn't drive the ball for my life.  Finally, on the last hole, I tried lefty for haha's...I creamed the ball like 160 yards but just wasn't straight.  So when I played again a few weeks later I did lefty, which is what I naturally am and realized I can drive the ball pretty damn well and straight.  

 

I don't know why I thought I was righty...I'm a lefty in everything else but probably b/c I put right handed. 

[Mr Torchey]

Yeah still havent hit the course yet...but this is exactly the type of weather I like for golf. Usually 60s and 70s. Hopefully this week I can sneak out for a round or two.

 

 

I agree with forky too that we may have a better shot at some rain around 5/7-5/12 or so. Somewhere during that 2nd week fo May the block looks to start breaking down...but still a logn ways out.

Like the last week you should have plenty of chances to get out and enjoy the links, looks perfect up there Will, nothing but sunshine over the next 7 days and nws says 69 69 72 62 67 68 67.  Hello San Diego again.

 

Hit em well!

[Quincy]

How were yours? i believe you had 68 for BDL yesterday and rain showers today and tomorrow there

My forecasts are based off of a DXR/MMK/BDL/IJD blend. In my posts on Facebook and Twitter I said a few 70°F readings were possible. The graphic also mentioned the showers should stay confined to SW CT.

 

Forecast high for Saturday. Actual 67.

Day -5: 64

Day -4: 64

Day -3: 64

Day -2: 65

Day -1: 66

Day 0: 66 (error -1°F)

 

Forecast high for Sunday. Actual 68.

Day -5: 66

Day -4: 67

Day -3: 68

Day -2: 68

Day -1: 69

Day 0: 68 (error 0°F)

 

MAV MOS verification for MMK Saturday. Actual 67.

Day -5: 65

Day -4: 66

Day -3: 67

Day -2: 69

Day -1: 68

Day 0: 67 (error 0°F)

 

MAV MOS verification for MMK Sunday. Actual 67.

Day -5: 66

Day -4: 69

Day -3: 72

Day -2: 73

Day -1: 71

Day 0: 69 (error +2°F)

[Sugarloaf1989]

Hopefully we can continue the negative departures going into summer. I'll take a sunny, dry and cool summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

Thursday could really torch ahead of the weak backdoor on Friday

 

 

Spin doctor! 

 

Like we don't already know that could be a significant cold push, you think you're what ...succeeding at guiding us away from our veracious perceptions on the matter ??  

 

haha.   

 

Anyway, it will depend on the ridge axis late Thursday, sfc and aloft.   If the axis is over or just west of us, the feature will tug a potent cold pop into the CP that may flood RI/CT down to NYC and the NJ I95 corridors.  If the axis is right over east of us, the CAA on the backside of that feature might come to halt just shy/east of the region, but you'd still get on-shore diurnal wind switch.   

 

Looks to me like it's status quo through early mid day on Thurs, then a 12 to 18 hour chilly popcycle -- could almost see that surge coming in with strata scud, unlatched screen doors flopping open and flags pointed skyward at angle...   temps crash 20F immediately... 

 

But it's short lived.. The ridge is then bumping east and already Saturday is moderating.   

[Allsnow]

Hopefully we can continue the negative departures going into summer. I'll take a sunny, dry and cool summer.

Agree it's the new normal.

Where's the warmth where's the torch?

[Damage In Tolland]

Spin doctor!

Like we don't already know that could be a significant cold push, you think you're what ...succeeding at guiding us away from our veracious perceptions on the matter ??

haha.

Anyway, it will depend on the ridge axis late Thursday, sfc and aloft. If the axis is over or just west of us, the feature will tug a potent cold pop into the CP that may flood RI/CT down to NYC and the NJ I95 corridors. If the axis is right over east of us, the CAA on the backside of that feature might come to halt just shy/east of the region, but you'd still get on-shore diurnal wind switch.

Looks to me like it's status quo through early mid day on Thurs, then a 12 to 18 hour chilly popcycle -- could almost see that surge coming in with strata scud, unlatched screen doors flopping open and flags pointed skyward at angle... temps crash 20F immediately...

But it's short lived.. The ridge is then bumping east and already Saturday is moderating.

It looks fairly meh inland. Instead of the mid 70's we'll have Thursday , it looks like low- mid 60's Friday

[Typhoon Tip]

It looks fairly meh inland. Instead of the mid 70's we'll have Thursday , it looks like low- mid 60's Friday

 

Yeah...perhaps that high down where you are... But the CP of Mass looks vulnerable to a classic pulse of Harbor small craft advisory wind burst from the NE.  I used to live in Winchester Mass, and Waltham for that matter, and can see those places getting cool jolted.