EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Hello folks. Looks like weather action is about to pick up. We got severe storms possible Saturday and Sunday and then models showing tropical system being drawn into a trough next week could provide severe weather and heavy rain. Lets get this baby rolling. Hope everyone joins me over at our FB page. www.facebook.com/hwpcwx we are up to over 4,000 fans now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif To be in the 30% area at day 3 is impressive... though it always feels like when we are given a high % chance it winds up a bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_0730.gif To be in the 30% area at day 3 is impressive... though it always feels like when we are given a high % chance it winds up a bust... Seems like the kind of setup that is most impressive for the Lower Susquehanna Valley...SPC says: ..NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... A MID/HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ARE PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS STORMS MATURE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY AS MUCH AS 35-50 KT BETWEEN 2-6 KM...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 30% risk continues at day two...meanwhile, this is probably the warmest day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 Another 90* day in Bellefonte, marking our first heat wave of the year already. Loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 This morning we had a 100% chance of severe storms. It won't even rain now apparently. Why the major bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 This morning we had a 100% chance of severe storms. It won't even rain now apparently. Why the major bust? Did you notice that SPC shifted the slight risk to the east at 1630Z? We ended up with some decent rain from a discrete that popped up, and some brief gusts, but not much more. BTW, KCCX has been down since about 1830 last night due to hardware failure. It's expected to be back up sometime today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Same here canderson, we had a 90 percent chance of storms and it was sunny out most of the day. No way to explain it other than a failed forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Same here canderson, we had a 90 percent chance of storms and it was sunny out most of the day. No way to explain it other than a failed forecast. This morning we had a 100% chance of severe storms. It won't even rain now apparently. Why the major bust? We really need the rain. Looks good for later this week, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Did you notice that SPC shifted the slight risk to the east at 1630Z? We ended up with some decent rain from a discrete that popped up, and some brief gusts, but not much more. BTW, KCCX has been down since about 1830 last night due to hardware failure. It's expected to be back up sometime today. Looks like there's a bit more of a significant issue with the radar by the sounds of the AFD: .EQUIPMENT... THE STATE COLLEGE PA WSR-88D (KCCX) WILL REMAIN IN STANDBY MODE UNTIL WEDNESDAY; NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT CAN BE BROUGHT ONLINE IF NEEDED. FORTUNATELY... ACT IVE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL PA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THU RSDAY. A DAMAGED PART IN THE PEDESTAL ASSEMBLY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS OUTAGE...AND MUST BE REPLACED FOR ROUTINE OPERATIONS TO RESUME. A BEST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS FOR THE PART TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND BE INSTALLED BY WEDNESDAY N IGHT. IF ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPS BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WFO STATE COLLEGE METE OROLOGISTS ARE ABLE TO BRING WSR-88D KCCX ONLINE AT A MOMENT/S NOTICE TO INTERROGATE STORMS. HOWEVER... SINCE A PEDESTAL FAILURE WILL INEVITABLY RECUR IN THIS SC ENARIO (UNTIL THE PART IS REPLACED)...THE RADAR WILL REMAIN IN STANDBY MODE AND ONLY USED AS NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 This morning we had a 100% chance of severe storms. It won't even rain now apparently. Why the major bust? Rain is coming. Tropical disturbance going to ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Looks like there's a bit more of a significant issue with the radar by the sounds of the AFD: Yeah, seems that the pedestal (mechanical assembly that physically positions the dish/feed horn) died and they're waiting for a replacement to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 We really need the rain. Looks good for later this week, though. i would rather have a Tuesday/Wednesday rain, but the plants really need a good soaking drink and it looks like Friday/Saturday may give it to us. So i'll give up a nice weekend for the cause! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Looks like there's a bit more of a significant issue with the radar by the sounds of the AFD: Hopefully we get this fixed in time for the rain Thursday -> Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 El Reno, OK tornado from Friday has been upgraded to an EF5 with max width at 2.6 miles and apparently there is data that recorded 296mph winds! 2.6 miles makes it the widest documented tornado in US history! Some even saying it went from 1 mile width to the 2.6 miles in 30 seconds... no wonder so many chasers got in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 CTP must have the Yugo of weather radars. It's constantly breaking down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 El Reno, OK tornado from Friday has been upgraded to an EF5 with max width at 2.6 miles and apparently there is data that recorded 296mph winds! 2.6 miles makes it the widest documented tornado in US history! Some even saying it went from 1 mile width to the 2.6 miles in 30 seconds... no wonder so many chasers got in trouble Yeah, that's what I thought when I heard about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 CTP must have the Yugo of weather radars. It's constantly breaking down. This is the funniest thing I've read all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 CTP must have the Yugo of weather radars. It's constantly breaking down. I really havn't paid much attention to outside of the area, but I wonder if anywhere else has been having trouble with parts continuously breaking since upgrading to Dual-Pol like CTP has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 This is the funniest thing I've read all week. Heh, thanks. I really havn't paid much attention to outside of the area, but I wonder if anywhere else has been having trouble with parts continuously breaking since upgrading to Dual-Pol like CTP has No idea. It seems to happen so much. Not blaming them of course. It must stink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Wow all models are showing 2 or 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Wow all models are showing 2 or 3 inches. If this was snow there would be mass suicides. Quite a bust so far here in UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 If this was snow there would be mass suicides. Quite a bust so far here in UNV. Yea this is definitely favoring the Sus Valley in the early going with widespread moderate rain there. Given the projected track of T.S Andrea up the coast, the southeastern counties look to be the big winners in the rain dept. There's also the second area of heavier rain and thunderstorms developing west/southwest of the area associated with a bit of a secondary max of PWATs and some half decent CAPEs as especially WV has broken out of some of the cloud cover. I'd look for that stuff to eventually be what makes it rain in our parts as Andrea rides up the coast and interacts further with the frontal boundary. We're just sitting in between the action so far in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Yea this is definitely favoring the Sus Valley in the early going with widespread moderate rain there. Given the projected track of T.S Andrea up the coast, the southeastern counties look to be the big winners in the rain dept. There's also the second area of heavier rain and thunderstorms developing west/southwest of the area associated with a bit of a secondary max of PWATs and some half decent CAPEs as especially WV has broken out of some of the cloud cover. I'd look for that stuff to eventually be what makes it rain in our parts as Andrea rides up the coast and interacts further with the frontal boundary. We're just sitting in between the action so far in the meantime. Bust cancel - that second area got us up to 1.13" of much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Imagine if radar today was in January. Wmsptwx would be banned by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 It hasn't rained for a few hours now in HBG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I'm logging 1.38" so far, currently drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Imagine if radar today was in January. Wmsptwx would be banned by now. PSUHazletonWx too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 PSUHazletonWx too. Got 1.22" in Tamaqua. Not a bust by any stretch, and it was some much needed rain, but nowhere near what the SE areas got. Per the Philly thread, a lot of locations were in the 3-4 inch range, with a few reporting over 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Only .50 here for the entire event...well better then .00. Guess we'll have to wait till next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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