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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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Thanks for starting this one, Bob C. And echo...please, novices (which includes me to be clear), lets leave the disco thread to red taggers, pro Mets, and extremely learned amateurs like Zwyts and others who know what they are doing (bobC, Ji, winterwx, mitch).

 

All other storm chatter/worries/IMBY weenieisms, this is our thread! 

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If you are weenie'ing out about rain/sleet/boundary worries, this is a great place to express those worries, and the ones who know what they are doing will often swing through and answer. Also a great place to ask questions about how you read maps, figure out what to look for in terms of the vort and the surface, and how to read a skew-T if you don't know.

 

Because, banter can also be educational!

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If you are weenie'ing out about rain/sleet/boundary worries, this is a great place to express those worries, and the ones who know what they are doing will often swing through and answer. Also a great place to ask questions about how you read maps, figure out what to look for in terms of the vort and the surface, and how to read a skew-T if you don't know.

 

Because, banter can also be educational!

 

I second this. I'd be glad to share any knowledge I have with questions about anything. 

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I don't think RVA is a great place to be for this.  Looks like our best chance is the backside stuff maybe? 

 

NOT an all -that -learned one...but...you may be a great spot if Euro is correct and this doesn't turn the corner is my read on things. I am positive that is what DT is seeing with his discos.

 

My general take from the last 72 hours of model runs is that DCA seems to do very well whether it is the Euro or GFS that wins out. 

 

For Balt City north, we appear to want the GFS to be more correct, as I wonder about if rates on the Euro up our way would be enough for good (any) accumulations.

 

For Richmond area, it appears that the Euro does much better for you, GFS not as much.

I think that is the general model dynamic as the day begins. Weird to have it so divegent this close in.

 

NAM last night flipped from Euro camp to GFS camp.

 

I have no idea which is right. My gut says Euro. That is based on nothing scientific - just that I would have expected the Euro to pick up on the GFS-up the coast solution by now if it were going to happen.

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If you are weenie'ing out about rain/sleet/boundary worries, this is a great place to express those worries, and the ones who know what they are doing will often swing through and answer. Also a great place to ask questions about how you read maps, figure out what to look for in terms of the vort and the surface, and how to read a skew-T if you don't know.

 

Because, banter can also be educational!

 

 

This is the sesame street of wx threads

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I asked yesterday, but not sure I ever got a response. Does anyone know what the March snowfall record is for DCA. I had thought DCA got a foot in the Blizzard of 93, but someone said DCA only recorded 6.6. According to this on LWX website, it looks like 8 inches may be the record, but not sure. 

 

lhttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/storm-pr.htm#OtherSnowfall

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NOT an all -that -learned one...but...you may be a great spot if Euro is correct and this doesn't turn the corner is my read on things. I am positive that is what DT is seeing with his discos.

Yeah, I read his stuff but I take his Euro man crush with a grain of salt.  I like looking at everything and it seems the lower level temps won't cooperate during our heaviest precip.  Just my amateur reading.

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I have a great excel template. I'll do it. When should I close it and how many/which cities?

I think close it tonight...maybe before the 0z runs come out?  I like when there's still a little disagreement in the forecasts.  I was thinking RIC/DCA/IAD/BWI and maybe even CHO or something like "biggest accum in VA/WV/MD/DC area". 

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I can say stupid stuff here with impunity?   :thumbsup:

 

I moved to DC from NC the summer after Snowmegeddon - the last few years before I moved every chance for snow moved north at the last minute, giving all my snow to VA and DC. Since I've been in DC all the storms have drifted south to NC and central VA. I feel due. 

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I think close it tonight...maybe before the 0z runs come out?  I like when there's still a little disagreement in the forecasts.  I was thinking RIC/DCA/IAD/BWI and maybe even CHO or something like "biggest accum in VA/WV/MD/DC area". 

 

Maybe I'll break it into 2 contests in one? Departure for 5 cities and then a jackpot one? Can't do location for jackpot of course. Just a wag #.

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It's time to keep it very clean in the storm thread. It's been awful the last couple of days. Please, no more useless comments and off topic discussion. All storm banter goes here along with clown and weird model runs like the YUMA and DLARM. 

 

 

I wish you all the best with your hopes that banter stays here and doesn't clutter up the storm thread.

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Maybe I'll break it into 2 contests in one? Departure for 5 cities and then a jackpot one? Can't do location for jackpot of course. Just a wag #.

My thoughts were (and you certainly don't have to do this) was:

 

Snow and total liquid for RIC, DCA, IAD and BWI.  Jackpot snowfall in LWX area (total number, not location prediction).  Maybe CHO.  Maybe something with winds.  

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I asked yesterday, but not sure I ever got a response. Does anyone know what the March snowfall record is for DCA. I had thought DCA got a foot in the Blizzard of 93, but someone said DCA only recorded 6.6. According to this on LWX website, it looks like 8 inches may be the record, but not sure. 

 

lhttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/storm-pr.htm#OtherSnowfall

 

For DCA, it's 11.5 on 

3/29/42

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