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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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True, but we're used to the GFS fantasy storms and the CMC bombs; they're not showing up. It's just boring as far as the eye -- and computer model -- can see.

To my untrained brain, this smells a bit like 2011-2012, with promised pattern changes that never materialize.

And then I think back to last year where so many people -- including myself -- said the same thing and I get confused.

I might try to do some reverse psychology on the atmosphere. Who's with me?

Sent from my iPad

11-12 was just surreal. There was non stop promises of major pattern changes coming and stratospheric warmings from literally mid November on and the models kept showing it at the end of their runs all winter long, it was believable for awhile then before we knew it, it was March and NYC was almost 90 degrees the last week of that month
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LC, Steve D and Joe Cioffi loves what they see on the models in regards to the PV. They think a change is coming next month.

..true,but waiting for them to start 'caving'..i'll take what LC has to say to heart..the others are bigger 

weenies then all of us combined..looking forward to LC's newsletter today and while we are at it,lets

see what JB has to say in his saturday update.

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..true,but waiting for them to start 'caving'..i'll take what LC has to say to heart..the others are bigger 

weenies then all of us combined..looking forward to LC's newsletter today and while we are at it,lets

see what JB has to say in his saturday update.

Just watched JB's video on Wxbell

 

He said that the EL Nino is starting to weaken and this winter is looking similiar to 1957-1958. He is also saying how things are probabl y going to change right near the New Year or just after the New Year.

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Just watched JB's video on Wxbell

He said that the EL Nino is starting to weaken and this winter is looking similiar to 1957-1958. He is also saying how things are probabl y going to change right near the New Year or just after the New Year.

Well he can add that to his terrible track record. Nothing is changing that early. He's just trying to suck back all his beloved weenies back.

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Well he can add that to his terrible track record. Nothing is changing that early. He's just trying to suck back all his beloved weenies back.

It's slowly changing and he's not alone in his thinking about the 2nd half of January pattern change. It seems like a lot of people on here are warm bias.

 

The 12/19 update? I don't see it on the website yet.

It's on there.

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Well he can add that to his terrible track record. Nothing is changing that early. He's just trying to suck back all his beloved weenies back.

Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER

You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December.

Noted.

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Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER

You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December.

Noted.

It's not just him, it's a lot of other people on here.

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Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER

You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December.

Yes possible but I'm not favoring a snowless winter and yes the rest is correct and noted.

You thought the same last winter and look what happened? What makes you think the pattern is not going to change? Every model shows a stratospheric warming event coming up which  weakens the PV. The Euro ensembles towards the New Year has a better pattern that we are in now.

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Dude 2 more weeks of this and the torch is over. OVER

You are now on record believing this pattern doesn't change til February and think it's possible that we have a snowless winter because of a warm December.

Yes possible but I'm not favoring a snowless winter and yes the rest is correct and noted.

 

I opined a few pages back in the banter thread I am plus 3 in January and I think you opined you are plus 6 is that correct ? 

 

You can see how the models are trending away from the big anomalies and back towards N . So as many of us have opined you will look for this to turn between the 10th and 15th and not Feb .

 

You can see the height rises on the WC on both the GFS and Euro ensembles .  850 anomalies are plus 1  by day 15 and the plus 10s are gone and the bigger anomalies look to be shifting out west as a result of the increase heights on the WC . 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_61.png

post-7472-0-36901700-1450543189_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-88417000-1450543250_thumb.pn

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A lot of mets are on board for the 2nd week.

I have been reading a bit about Judah Cohen, he predicted a mild winter in 13-14 I think and it was anything but, and I think this year he expected a harsh one, due to Siberian snow cover? Tried to find out more about his outlook for this year but if anyone can elaborate I'm interested....

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I have been reading a bit about Judah Cohen, he predicted a mild winter in 13-14 I think and it was anything but, and I think this year he expected a harsh one, due to Siberian snow cover? Tried to find out more about his outlook for this year but if anyone can elaborate I'm interested....

I think his idea is interesting, but it might prove the old statistical axiom that correlation does not infer causation.

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I think his idea is interesting, but it might prove the old statistical axiom that correlation does not infer causation.

Sent from my iPad

True, but that doesn't mean correlation isn't a useful tool. In medicine a correlation can alert docs to look for things even if there is no clear causation. People use analogs here all the time and how predictive are they? Serious question.

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True, but that doesn't mean correlation isn't a useful tool. In medicine a correlation can alert docs to look for things even if there is no clear causation. People use analogs here all the time and how predictive are they? Serious question.

True. I think the difference here, though, is the data set being used. I don't have his info in front of me, but I think he only examined 30 or so winters. In the grand scheme of North American winters that's less than a drop in the bucket. I think that's why this El Niño is also throwing forecasters for a loop.

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