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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2


Powerball

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18z GFS gives MSN 0.45" liquid, temps are gonna be quite cold throughout the column for the duration of the storm, so an average ratio around 15:1 wouldn't surprise me. So we're talking 5-7" if that came true, not accounting for compaction.

 

Phasing between the polar and subtropical jet looks better on the GFS than yesterday's runs... maybe it'll revert back to the old solution ( :weenie: ). Seems like the mid-range is the least reliable, and I can think of several times where a long range solution dissapeared in the mid range only to come back in the short range.

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18z GFS gives MSN 0.45" liquid, temps are gonna be quite cold throughout the column for the duration of the storm, so an average ratio around 15:1 wouldn't surprise me. So we're talking 5-7" if that came true, not accounting for compaction.

 

Phasing between the polar and subtropical jet looks better on the GFS than yesterday's runs... maybe it'll revert back to the old solution ( :weenie: ). Seems like the mid-range is the least reliable, and I can think of several times where a long range solution dissapeared in the mid range only to come back in the short range.

 

All it would take is probably a later intensification and occlusion, so it could happen.  However, I will be guarded, and am still going with 1-3" here.  I'm still worried dry air will be a ***** as usual.  Chicago will probably see 4-6" though.

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Also don't let the weak sfc pressure reflection on the GFS fool you, this storm will basically riding up and over the cold dome situated across the Midwest. Since sfc pressure is an integration of all the mass in the vertical, the cold dome and the low pressure negate themselves. Alot more vigorous at 700 mb http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_c700_flash.html

 

Couldn't ask for better temperature profiles across Wisconsin, at least we don't have precip type issues, and surfaces will be very cold at the start so no melting.

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21z SREF mean snowfall totals, through 12z Feb 23 (second number). The first number is the 15z run totals, so you can see if you gained or lost. All gained, except for CMI, DTW, IND, and LAF. :(  Usual caveats apply.

 

BTL: 2.6"...3.0"

CID: 8.1"...8.9"

CMI: 2.2"...2.1"

DBQ: 8.1"...8.8"

DKB: 5.9"...6.5"

DSM: 9.8"...11.2"

DTW: 1.6"...1.5"

DVN: 7.4"...8.0"

FWA: 1.2"...1.3"

GRR: 3.2"...3.7"

IKK: 3.7"...3.9"

IND: 0.7"...0.5"

JOT: 5.1"...5.8"

LAF: 1.4"...1.3"

LSE: 7.2"...7.3"

MCI: 11.6"...13.0"

MKE: 5.7"...5.7"

MKG: 3.5"...4.2"

MLI: 7.2"...7.8"

MSN: 6.4"...6.7"

ORD: 5.3"...5.7"

PIA: 5.4"...6.4"

RFD: 6.2"...6.8"

STL: 2.4"...2.9"

UGN: 5.4"...5.7"

UIN: 7.3"...9.0"

VPZ: 2.9"...3.0"

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Also don't let the weak sfc pressure reflection on the GFS fool you, this storm will basically riding up and over the cold dome situated across the Midwest. Since sfc pressure is an integration of all the mass in the vertical, the cold dome and the low pressure negate themselves. Alot more vigorous at 700 mb http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_c700_flash.html

 

Couldn't ask for better temperature profiles across Wisconsin, at least we don't have precip type issues, and surfaces will be very cold at the start so no melting.

Good point, and logically explained.  I think you'd be a good teacher/professor some day, if you choose that route. :)

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