Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 IND has 1-2" sleet/snow, around 0.10" ice for LAF...per the zone forecast. Not sure I see ice accumulation being a big deal here at all, only with the idea that it will be a pretty short duration "thump" of precipitation. I think it'll be 95% snow/sleet...with some freezing drizzle post big band. Then we torch Friday afternoon, and it's all a distant memory. I actually like Hoosier's call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Sorry Alek. Congrats Geos. Blue=2-4", pink=4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Sorry Alek. Congrats Geos. Blue=2-4", pink=4-6" LOT snowfall 254pm 2:20.png This is a bizarre map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This is a bizarre map. Yeah. It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This is a bizarre map. I really don't like the presentation of that map. Amounts up to 3.9" get you into the 2-4" range, while 4-4.1" gets you 4-6". That's why it looks so weird. When I did the graphical wxstory yesterday, I tried to roughly draw the contours that mark the 1" increment ranges, IMO that's a better presentation than our map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Sorry Alek. Congrats Geos. Blue=2-4", pink=4-6" LOT snowfall 254pm 2:20.png Someone's getting wild with MS paint. Our low is entering Arizona, looks decent but it's small. Already getting lots of clouds and some precip across the plains, jet circulation is sucking air northwards and it's condensing as it goes up and over the cold dome. http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8visflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I really don't like the presentation of that map. Amounts up to 3.9" get you into the 2-4" range, while 4-4.1" gets you 4-6". That's why it looks so weird. When I did the graphical wxstory yesterday, I tried to roughly draw the contours that mark the 1" increment ranges, IMO that's a better presentation than our map. That was a nice looking map you did. Kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 NWS is the best in the biz, no doubt about it. But sometimes the warning/advisory layouts look a little strange. Of course this storm is a huge PITA to forecast I'm sure. I guess the criteria may be different down there, from LSX to PAH...but it just looks, funny (northern part of image). Screen Shot 2013-02-20 at 1.49.37 PM.png I think ILX is just laughing at east central Illinois. I'm sitting in a doughnut of not even an advisory. Also, they reminded me like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 IND has 1-2" sleet/snow, around 0.10" ice for LAF...per the zone forecast. Not sure I see ice accumulation being a big deal here at all, only with the idea that it will be a pretty short duration "thump" of precipitation. I think it'll be 95% snow/sleet...with some freezing drizzle post big band. Then we torch Friday afternoon, and it's all a distant memory. I actually like Hoosier's call right now. 18z NAM seemed to be a tick colder for us with 3" or a little more verbatim. We need all the colder ticks we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 4km NAM going ape over MO tomorrow Good for MO, they deserve some love once and a while too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That was a nice looking map you did. Kudos. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z NAM seemed to be a tick colder for us with 3" or a little more verbatim. We need all the colder ticks we can get. Best run of our storm lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think ILX is just laughing at east central Illinois. I'm sitting in a doughnut of not even an advisory. Also, they reminded me like this: You're good to go now. WWA been given. And Olney FTW on that chart. Fun irrelevant fact, my current boss grew up in Olney. White squirrels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This is a bizarre map. Ditto. Never seen a map like that. Almost looks like a geological layer map! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Then you have the 18z GFS, just when I was getting all confident about LAF's prospects. Barely brings 0.10" to the hood, and all of it non-snow. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Then you have the 18z GFS, just when I was getting all confident about LAF's prospects. Barely brings 0.10" to the hood, and all of it non-snow. Good stuff. Outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Outlier We toss it in the garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 We toss it in the garbage. Kinda weird to see it on the warmer end of models. I do wonder if the wet runs may be just a little too aggressive with precip amounts given the mega dry layer that will need to be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Kinda weird to see it on the warmer end of models. I do wonder if the wet runs may be just a little too aggressive with precip amounts given the mega dry layer that will need to be overcome. Uh oh, you're backpedaling. Time to lower amounts? T-0.5"? BTW, we can hug the RGEM too...though barely. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=na Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Good for MO, they deserve some love once and a while too. I agree. Never a fan of seeing a storm hit elsewhere, but KS/MO are often left out. Should be a good winter storm there. Meanwhile, here the foreign models and NAM would tend to average a 2" snowfall for us (and a denser 2" snow, unlike the plentiful 2-3" fluffy snowfalls this month), but the GFS refuses to play ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. * TIMING...STEADY LIGHT...TO AT TIMES MODERATE...SNOW WILL BEGIN BY 9 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...TAPERING OFF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 4 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. * WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SNOW-COVERED ROADS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Fort Smith Arkansas getting hammered with snow http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=KFSM&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Mixed precip occurring across a large swath of AR, only a bit of freezing rain so far. Band of precip stretching from Colorado to Louisiana http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/sp3compflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Local office and mets are finally starting to back down on snow amounts. 2" or a tad more seems like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That looks pretty darn good between 9pm-3am. I got 2-5" in my forecast basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd trust the 18z Kenyan over the RPM/NAM duo lol. Good stuff. Of course the Kenyan runs every 1z because it runs a lot. I'm gonna bump my original 1-3" call to 3-5". Think we'll get a quick burst of heavy snow for a few hours tomorrow evening. That should get us to a quick 2-3". After that initial band we'll probably have light snow the rest of the night. NWS went with an advisory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 lol. Good stuff. Of course the Kenyan runs every 1z because it runs a lot. I'm gonna bump my original 1-3" call to 3-5". Think we'll get a quick burst of heavy snow for a few hours tomorrow evening. That should get us to a quick 2-3". After that initial band we'll probably have light snow the rest of the night. NWS went with an advisory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 1 foot for Hawkeye. EDIT: and of course we can't forget Dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 DVN mentions the quick hitting nature of this event. Looks like most of the snow falls in the first 3-4hrs, with just residuals after that. Looks like it will be rip city though for a little while... WHEN SNOW ARRIVES...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ROUGHLY3 TO 5 HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT SNOW ACCUMULATION RATESOF .75 TO 1.5 INCHES AN HOUR.THURSDAY NIGHT...SWATCH OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITHHEAVIEST SNOW NORTHEAST OF ENTIRE CWFA BY 1 TO 2 AM. CENTRAL ANDNORTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE 3 TO 4 HOURS OF MODERATETO HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATE RATES OF .75 TO 1.5 INCHES AN HOUR.THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF ADUBUQUE TO MUSCATINE TO KEOKUK IOWA LINE. SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTSWILL BE EAST OF THIS AXIS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS. ESSENTIALLY80-90 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT WILL FALLWITH THESE INITIAL BANDS OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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