A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 looks as model advertised to me for the most part. It's much tamer than the NAM/hi-res NAM solutions some are riding but yeah. You look locked and loaded for 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's much tamer than the NAM/hi-res NAM solutions some are riding but yeah. You look locked and loaded for 1-2" yeah NAM is still in catchup mode for awhile yet. Pretty much going as planned since the downfall of this one started.. 4-6 hr wall of snow light to light + 1-2" for me and you.. if we're lucky 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 yeah NAM is still in catchup mode for awhile yet. Pretty much going as planned since the downfall of this one started.. 4-6 hr wall of snow light to light + 1-2" for me and you.. if we're lucky 3-4" agree...looks like the NAM will be taking another step towards the drier runs at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 agree...looks like the NAM will be taking another step towards the drier runs at 12z bad call...weaker at 850/700 but wetter...maybe waiting a little longer to peak? EDIT: wetter in MO but ****s the bed aggressively over N. IL cuts back totals for most. QC/Cyclone should like this run...big weenie band incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 bad call...weaker at 850/700 but wetter...maybe waiting a little longer to peak? QC/Cyclone should like this run...big weenie band incoming I'll take some of that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 yeah you're in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 4km NAM going full weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 MKX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO EASTERN NE/KS ON THURSDAY...AND INTO SOUTHERN MN BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...THE NOSE OF AN 850MB JET...700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT OMEGA...ALONG WITH STRONG AND DEEP Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THAT BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THU EVENING AND EXIT EAST CENTRAL WI EARLY FRI MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRI WITH THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS WI. EXPECTING ABOUT A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THAT 12 HOUR PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A QUARTER INCH. ANOTHER HALF INCH UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD CENTRAL WI. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM THU EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 probably the closest thing to a spread the wealth system all year, even if slightly west of the meat of the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z NAM has 0.42" for LAF. Dry air is impressive though, we go from 11% RH at 850 at 36 hours, to 100% at 42 hours. Also that small but pesky warm initially, but verbatim we take care of that with relative ease. Still leaning low on snowfall for here...but we'll see. If the band that swings through is "spotty" heavy, that may make the difference in what we get. Duration also lowers the stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z NAM has 0.42" for LAF. Dry air is impressive though, we go from 11% RH at 850 at 36 hours, to 100% at 42 hours. Also that small but pesky warm initially, but verbatim we take care of that with relative ease. Still leaning low on snowfall for here...but we'll see. If the band that swings through is "spotty" heavy, that may make the difference in what we get. It is impressive...the 12z NAM and 4km NAM were both even wetter over MO but dry air just slaughters what looks like a classic winter storm as it heads into our area. Minor off topic point, but it looks like we might finally get the kind of expansive plains snowpack that will play a role in future baroclinic zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Intensifying, yet narrowing, band that swings through here and IL and northern IN? Yellows in northern IN on the 42 hour image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It is impressive...the 12z NAM and 4km NAM were both even wetter over MO but dry air just slaughters what looks like a classic winter storm as it heads into our area. Minor off topic point, but it looks like we might finally get the kind of expansive plains snowpack that will play a role in future baroclinic zones. Yeah, impressively bad for us. And yes, it'll be interesting to see what effect that has. Euro last night went south with the follow up system, making for an interesting front end situation for N IL. Where have we seen that before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Nice quick saturation for Wichita. 7:53am: 29º/10º/45% overcast 8:53am: 25º/23º/92% moderate snow http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KICT/2013/02/20/DailyHistory.html'>http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KICT/2013/02/20/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 How much snow are they expecting in Kansas City? Will it be close to at 24 hr snowfall records? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 How much snow are they expecting in Kansas City? Will it be close to at 24 hr snowfall records? about 5-8" 1 1912 March 22-24 24.2 Inches 20.5 Inches (23rd) 2 1894 Feb 11-12 15.8 Inches 8.7 Inches (12th) 3 1958 January 20-21 14.6 Inches 10.5 Inches (21st) 4 1962 January 18-19 14.0 Inches 11.8 Inches (18th) 5 1960 March 14-15 13.8 Inches 8.0 Inches (15th) 6 1930 January 8-9 13.7 Inches 12.8 Inches (8th) 7 1900 February 27-28 13.0 Inches 11.8 Inches (27th) 8 1926 March 29.31 12.3 Inches 7.5 Inches (30th) 9 1918 December 23-24 12.2 Inches 9.5 Inches (24th) 10 1915 March 3-5 11.9 Inches 10.4 Inches (4th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 How much snow are they expecting in Kansas City? Will it be close to at 24 hr snowfall records? 6-10" per the WSW text. Won't threaten any records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 After juicing up yesterday as the system was coming ashore, the newer runs are backing down with the qpf across Iowa. The 00z Euro dropped way down to about 0.33", the GFS is back down to near 0.40", and of course the NAM is coming back closer to reality by dropping from 0.95" to 0.60(and should continue falling today. Yesterday I was thinking 6 inches for Cedar Rapids, but now I'm going with 4 inches for my prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z RGEM p-type maps are fun. We ride the line here in the LAF, but verbatim, it's mainly snow...while the getting is good. A couple of thumps in there to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Just like its American cousin, much too wet, but one can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 SREF ensemble mean snow totals (best I can estimate in some cases). 2/19 15z, 2/19 21z, 2/20 3z, and 2/20 9z runs below...in chronological order. BTL: 2.6"...3.0"...3.0"...2.7" CID: 8.1"...8.9"...9.1"...8.5" CMI: 2.2"...2.1"...2.2"...1.8" DBQ: 8.1"...8.8"...8.8"...7.5" DKB: 5.9"...6.5"...6.4"...5.5" DSM: 9.8"...11.2"...10.9"...10.1" DTW: 1.6"...1.5"...1.4"...1.2" DVN: 7.4"...8.0"...8.0"...7.5" FWA: 1.2"...1.3"...1.1"...1.1" GRR: 3.2"...3.7"...3.6"...3.0" IKK: 3.7"...3.9"...4.1"...3.2" IND: 0.7"...0.5"...0.8"...0.6" JOT: 5.1"...5.8"...5.7"...5.0" LAF: 1.4"...1.3"...1.5"...1.2" LSE: 7.2"...7.3"...6.8"...6.5" MCI: 11.6"...13.0"...11.6"...11.3" MKE: 5.7"...5.7"...5.3"...5.0" MKG: 3.5"...4.2"...3.7"...3.5" MLI: 7.2"...7.8"...7.8"...7.4" MSN: 6.4"...6.7"...6.3"...5.8" ORD: 5.3"...5.7"...6.1"...5.1" PIA: 5.4"...6.4"...6.6"...5.5" RFD: 6.2"...6.8"...6.7"...5.9" STL: 2.4"...2.9"...2.1"...2.3" UGN: 5.4"...5.7"...5.6"...4.7" UIN: 7.3"...9.0"...8.0"...7.1" VPZ: 2.9"...3.0"...3.5"...2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 noticeable drying trend at 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z GFS says my 1.9" IMBY call will bust high, 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 noticeable drying trend at 9z To be expected. Amped weenie members/runs are dropping off/getting a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 First call FWA: 1.5" IND: 0.2" (mix) LAF: 0.5" (mix) MKE: 4.0" MLI: 5.5" MSN: 5.7" ORD: 4.0" STL: 2.0" (mix) No changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 No changes. You're going to bust two times too high on about half of your calls, but suit yourself. I like the optimism (though it never seems to do much for our region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 You're going to bust two times too high on about half of your calls, but suit yourself. I like the optimism (though it never seems to do much for our region). lol Make your own calls then genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z UK total QPF 7.5-10mm=0.30-0.40" 10-15mm=0.40-0.60" 15-20mm=0.60"-0.80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 lol times are tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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