Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Has to be the first event this winter with the 70% prob line for 4" in part of the LOT CWA. Maybe even the 40% line too? Which is most of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Has to be the first event this winter with the 70% prob line for 4" in part of the LOT CWA. Maybe even the 40% line too? Which is most of the CWA. day3_psnow_gt_04.gif I may have snuck under the 70% line. It's close. I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'll take a 50-60% chance of 4"! Let's see what the NAM is cooking up on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Low on the NAM is near the Red River Valley at 45 hours. Takes the low towards the DVN cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 A bit wetter, a bit colder at 850 for LAF with the 0z NAM. Too bad it's a POS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Too bad it's the NAM as it's over 48 hours away. T-snow and Schaumburg Stormer get like 7" on this map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z GFS gives MSN 0.45" liquid, temps are gonna be quite cold throughout the column for the duration of the storm, so an average ratio around 15:1 wouldn't surprise me. So we're talking 5-7" if that came true, not accounting for compaction. Phasing between the polar and subtropical jet looks better on the GFS than yesterday's runs... maybe it'll revert back to the old solution ( ). Seems like the mid-range is the least reliable, and I can think of several times where a long range solution dissapeared in the mid range only to come back in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z GFS gives MSN 0.45" liquid, temps are gonna be quite cold throughout the column for the duration of the storm, so an average ratio around 15:1 wouldn't surprise me. So we're talking 5-7" if that came true, not accounting for compaction. Phasing between the polar and subtropical jet looks better on the GFS than yesterday's runs... maybe it'll revert back to the old solution ( ). Seems like the mid-range is the least reliable, and I can think of several times where a long range solution dissapeared in the mid range only to come back in the short range. All it would take is probably a later intensification and occlusion, so it could happen. However, I will be guarded, and am still going with 1-3" here. I'm still worried dry air will be a ***** as usual. Chicago will probably see 4-6" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Also don't let the weak sfc pressure reflection on the GFS fool you, this storm will basically riding up and over the cold dome situated across the Midwest. Since sfc pressure is an integration of all the mass in the vertical, the cold dome and the low pressure negate themselves. Alot more vigorous at 700 mb http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_c700_flash.html Couldn't ask for better temperature profiles across Wisconsin, at least we don't have precip type issues, and surfaces will be very cold at the start so no melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 21z SREF mean snowfall totals, through 12z Feb 23 (second number). The first number is the 15z run totals, so you can see if you gained or lost. All gained, except for CMI, DTW, IND, and LAF. Usual caveats apply. BTL: 2.6"...3.0" CID: 8.1"...8.9" CMI: 2.2"...2.1" DBQ: 8.1"...8.8" DKB: 5.9"...6.5" DSM: 9.8"...11.2" DTW: 1.6"...1.5" DVN: 7.4"...8.0" FWA: 1.2"...1.3" GRR: 3.2"...3.7" IKK: 3.7"...3.9" IND: 0.7"...0.5" JOT: 5.1"...5.8" LAF: 1.4"...1.3" LSE: 7.2"...7.3" MCI: 11.6"...13.0" MKE: 5.7"...5.7" MKG: 3.5"...4.2" MLI: 7.2"...7.8" MSN: 6.4"...6.7" ORD: 5.3"...5.7" PIA: 5.4"...6.4" RFD: 6.2"...6.8" STL: 2.4"...2.9" UGN: 5.4"...5.7" UIN: 7.3"...9.0" VPZ: 2.9"...3.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Also don't let the weak sfc pressure reflection on the GFS fool you, this storm will basically riding up and over the cold dome situated across the Midwest. Since sfc pressure is an integration of all the mass in the vertical, the cold dome and the low pressure negate themselves. Alot more vigorous at 700 mb http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_c700_flash.html Couldn't ask for better temperature profiles across Wisconsin, at least we don't have precip type issues, and surfaces will be very cold at the start so no melting. Good point, and logically explained. I think you'd be a good teacher/professor some day, if you choose that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Too bad it's the NAM as it's over 48 hours away. T-snow and Schaumburg Stormer get like 7" on this map! Locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 0Z GFS hits Cycloneville goooooood. Even has the Mt. Geos Bullseye!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Low on GFS goes over or just south of Chicago on this run. Snowfall map looks good for the western section of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 0z GFS slices QPF for western IN...but ups for the QC and STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 2.8" 3.5" for ORD sounds about right. I am sure the Lakefront heater will come up with 2.0" 2.5" adjusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That there is the LAF sucker hole on the 0z GFS clown map. Red dot marks the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Accounting for all the backlash snow showers this is the final tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 FWIW the new RGEM looks like it may do good for LAF. The snow/mix line looks to threaten, but it wouldn't take much more than a few tweaks south to make that a non-issue. At least the moisture looks less of a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Accounting for all the backlash snow showers this is the final tally. 96snowb.png I already posted that map above ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we're in for some gresil mixed with neige. And then light freezing verglas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That there is the LAF sucker hole on the 0z GFS clown map. Red dot marks the spot. LAF Sucker Hole.png LOL. I definitely could not handle your climate. Kudos to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 0z GFS with .45" liquid at ORD, nice little bump up from the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I already posted that map above ^ Didn't even see that. Took it a step further and took the GFS snowfall map and georeferenced it with the Google Earth globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 First call FWA: 1.5" IND: 0.2" (mix) LAF: 0.5" (mix) MKE: 4.0" MLI: 5.5" MSN: 5.7" ORD: 4.0" STL: 2.0" (mix) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Didn't even see that. Took it a step further and took the GFS snowfall map and georeferenced it with the Google Earth globe. ILMIIN_closein.png That's above and beyond the strict call of duty right there. Well done sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah, pretty cool Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we're in for some gresil mixed with neige. And then light freezing verglas. lol, I was like 'what the heck is he talking about' and then I saw the RGEM. 12z Euro/00z NAM look similar for us in terms of qpf. Hopefully the 00z Euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'll bump my call up to 3.6" at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 lol, I was like 'what the heck is he talking about' and then I saw the RGEM. 12z Euro/00z NAM look similar for us in terms of qpf. Hopefully the 00z Euro holds. Oui, oui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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