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Blizzard of 2013 Forecast Discussion Part II


forkyfork

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I gotta say, the GFS won this storm. We've had about 1.2" total water equiv today, .5" of it snow at a paltry 8:1 ratio, the length of non-frozen precip, the sharp cutoff west of the city, and the weaker northern stream influence all point towards what the GFS has showed since 6z yesterday. I still think we can see a good 2-4" if the snow wraps through later on, but as for the position and strength of the storm, and mid-level dynamics, GFS had it.

Huh? No one has seen nearly that much liquid. JFK, NYC, LGA, and EWR have all seen from .45-.75" of precipitation. 

 

The initial burst of precipitation (WAA) was always supposed to have a sharp cut-off. It's the deformation band and the phasing that creates the backbuilding where even PHL gets decent snows. We haven't seen that part of the storm yet.

 

Guys, we've got a 980mb low south of LI. This show is just getting started. 

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Dude, most people have only seen .6" QPF...the forecast is for 1.5-2.0" of QPF from most of the models. We haven't seen the CCB line up, and all the news/radio stations were saying the heaviest part of this system was going to be 8pm on for the NYC metro area.

 

I wish we could eliminate the pessimism/trolling in this thread and just let the storm play out. There's a list of people who need to be suspended or banned, and moderators should be getting stricter during a large event and not tolerate this garbage. 

 

 

he says the storm is collapsing on itself, the bands in PA might bring 1-2 inches...he says New England storm...yeah LI too, remember he is a Jersey forecaster so yes obviously you guys into NY state and LI get more but this guy basically wrapped this storm up as run of the mill and all but over.

 

I do not know his name...its Dave something but he talked like he knew something about weather.

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People need to relax. This freak out is ridiculous. The models showed this, the models actually even showed this as rain even. We will be ok, we still have almost 12 more hours to go. When we get into the 2-3" per hour bands later we will all end up doing ok. Chill with the bust comments until the storm is over

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Mod snow, 32F, everything white in SE PA. Get ready you NYC guys - the dry-slot over NJ will fill in soon.

 

i cant remember the exact storm.... it was a long time ago...... somewhere around 2000, give or take,,,.. (my brain is shot)....

but there was significant subsidence in the entire eastern half of NJ, while the western half had hours and hours of snow.... the line finally drifted east and simply fell apart in doing so...... leaving good snow west, little snow east.   this thing tonight looks like that.

 

simply an observation. not whining. 

 

okay.... whining... whatevs.  lol

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i cant remember the exact storm.... it was a long time ago...... somewhere around 2000, give or take,,,.. (my brain is shot)....

but there was significant subsidence in the entire eastern half of NJ, while the western half had hours and hours of snow.... the line finally drifted east and simply fell apart in doing so...... leaving good snow west, little snow east.   this thing tonight looks like that.

 

simply an observation. not whining. 

 

okay.... whining... whatevs.

Jan  2000? 

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i cant remember the exact storm.... it was a long time ago...... somewhere around 2000, give or take,,,.. (my brain is shot)....

but there was significant subsidence in the entire eastern half of NJ, while the western half had hours and hours of snow.... the line finally drifted east and simply fell apart in doing so...... leaving good snow west, little snow east.   this thing tonight looks like that.

 

Yeah, I remember that one vividly.  I think it was Jan. 25th 2000.  Not sure I see that fully happening here.  That was a bit of a different animal.

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Hours of snow of varying intensity coming.  Grab a brew and enjoy it , Dogfish Head 120 in hand.

120? Well done sir, well done indeed! 90 minute in hand over here, doing it's job.

Really hoping we can ditch some of this dry air in Morris County. Would be nice for locations that have been sitting in the dryslot to pick up at least a few more inches before she kicks out of here tomorrow morning.

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120? Well done sir, well done indeed! 90 minute in hand over here, doing it's job.

Really hoping we can ditch some of this dry air in Morris County. Would be nice for locations that have been sitting in the dryslot to pick up at least a few more inches before she kicks out of here tomorrow morning.

 

90 is nice, but 120 was required for the dryslot!

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Radar out of Mt. Holly is showing the main band splitting right down the middle almost on the Nassau/Sufolk County line. Western PA band is expanding into Western NJ more than the actual band moving East itself which is really great news. Also precip is making it all the way now down towards Atlantic City. I suspect that the entire thing is filling in. It won't be what New England is getting but the wrap around snows look like they will come in as advertised. I'm predicting a major screw zone for Central Long Island where the bands are splitting.

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