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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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I'm going to go with a prelim call of 6-8" for Toronto. I'd was going to go with some local 10"+ amounts near lake Ontario due to LES but I'm worried any additional amounts received via LES will be offset by that potential dryslot lurking to the south.

 

I think NE lower + the thumb will be the biggest winners in our subforum. Looks like they get some persistent WAA snow ahead of the main pcpn shield + enhancement off Lk Huron as the low departs. Foot and change sound outlandish?

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In Dec lots of game time left.  We're in the 4th with 5 min left.

 

That's it. On air met out of Buffalo was saying forecasts for a certain oscillation (he didn't specify, maybe MJO?) were hinting that we torch later this month into early March. So it's at least possible that this will be my last threat for siggy snow this season.

 

Anyway, there's lots of time for sleep in the spring.  

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...MORE SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY HEAVY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN....SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEEWITH SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSUREAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE SEVERALINCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHEASTWISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. LIGHT ICEACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTWISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.WIZ059-060-065-066-070>072-061815-/O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0003.130207T1200Z-130208T0000Z/WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA409 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNINGTHROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT BECOME HEAVIER ON  THURSDAY. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW TONIGHT  FROM WAUKESHA TO MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH TO THE ILLINOIS BORDER.  LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES MAINLY ON THURSDAY.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

I'll take this.

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The chances we stay as all snow look better and better. Now the question is how much will fall.

MKX

 

 

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SETUPON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLING ALOFT DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGLIFT WILL PROBABLY HELP THINGS COOL EVEN MORE. EVEN THE MILD NAMWOULD BE ALL SNOW AT MILWAUKEE THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THINK THEREWILL BE A LINGERING SLEET AND MAYBE FREEZING RAIN CHANCE IN THESOUTHWEST...PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. COLDER ECMWF AND GFS WOULDBE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH. BEST OVERLAP OF HIGHER QPF AND COLDER TEMPSLOOKS TO BE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO OPTED TOGO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD. KEPT OUTTHE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...AS BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL SETUPFARTHER SOUTH. WILL BE A MUCH WETTER SNOW THAN THE LAST FEWEVENTS...WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY.
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I'm going to go with 6" for Toronto, with us getting 8" if we're lucky. It should be a cold storm too, if the east/northeast wind kicks in with Ottawa, for example, expecting a high in the low single digets on Thursday with snow. So much for the "it's too cold to snow" nonsence that I hear all too often, especially from non weather enthusiasts in Toronto.

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