Subtropics Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 All of this coming from a single snow storm. Is this meteorologically possible? What would have to happen? (set-up wise) If it isn't, what do you think is the absolute maximum possible snow total for DCA, and then closer suburbs such as Montgomery and Howard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 All of this coming from a single snow storm? Is this meteorologically possible? What would have to happen? (set-up wise) If it isn't, what do you think is the absolute maximum possible snow total for DCA, and then closer suburbs such as Montgomery and Howard? Well I'm not gonna comment on the impossible, because it probably could happen, but places did receive almost 40" as Elkridge reportedly had 38" in 2/5-6/10 and places me-north of me had 33-37" in PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 thread Not really. Just a question. More interested in the set-up, should it even be considered possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Strong greenland blocking would be required to allow for a slow movement of the coastal storm, whether it be a miller A or miller B. I imagine the only way to get a 40" event would be from a stationary cutoff low that somehow gets strong enough......high pressures and 50/50 low needs to be setup perfectly or you could end up with occlusion and warming, changing over to rain, light precip,etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Rumored to have been possible for the 3/4/01 debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 All of this coming from a single snow storm. Is this meteorologically possible? What would have to happen? (set-up wise) If it isn't, what do you think is the absolute maximum possible snow total for DCA, and then closer suburbs such as Montgomery and Howard? no 30" for DCA would be a 1 in 300 year event........I think around 22" is the cap for DCA and it would take a long duration high QPF event that doesn't mix...something like PD2 w/o the sleet....PD1 had 18.7"....anything over 20" would be a 1 in 150 year event.....personally I would be stunned if I see an event with more than 20" at DCA in my lifetime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 no 30" for DCA would be a 1 in 300 year event........I think around 22" is the cap for DCA and it would take a long duration high QPF event that doesn't mix...something like PD2 w/o the sleet....PD1 had 18.7"....anything over 20" would be a 1 in 150 year event.....personally I would be stunned if I see an event with more than 20" at DCA in my lifetime... Or, 2/5-6/10 about five degrees F colder from the start. I think 20" would have been reached at DCA if the late-morning through mid-afternoon precip had accumulated well-- that was probably 1.5-2" of "wasted snow" at least--- and If the snow the rest of the 5th was drier/more powdery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DCA itself, maybe not. But its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Dca has no topography for orographic enhancement. It would be all synoptic / dynamic driven. That's like 4-5" liquid falling entirely as snow. I say virtually impossible in a single event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Dca has no topography for orographic enhancement. It would be all synoptic / dynamic driven. That's like 4-5" liquid falling entirely as snow. I say virtually impossible in a single event. Yea 40" around the metros, idk about that like I said. Would have to be once in many lifetimes. Maybe localized areas get the best rates under bands which models can't really be called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 no 30" for DCA would be a 1 in 300 year event........I think around 22" is the cap for DCA and it would take a long duration high QPF event that doesn't mix...something like PD2 w/o the sleet....PD1 had 18.7"....anything over 20" would be a 1 in 150 year event.....personally I would be stunned if I see an event with more than 20" at DCA in my lifetime... Pretty much agree. To get 40 inches with our usual 10:1 rations you'd need precip that was basically tropical in nature, like what we see with TS remnants around here. With that you bring the warmth up. Too cold of an airmass and you won't get the monster precip required. There is a reason the atmosphere works the way it does... physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If DCA itself ever recorded 30 inches someone else close by would have 50 inches. It is a terrible spot to measure snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Some possibilities that will easily give DC metro 30+ easy (with DCA well over 20") 1993 superstorm with a track 150 miles SE. 1996 blizzard without the lull Knickerbocker A colder Feb 5-6, 2010 A slower moving 1983, PDI 1979, 12/19/09 PDII that stays all snow Don't know about 40 inches. I see 40 inches+ possible in the N & W suburbs but not in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I say no. We could in theory top 30" but even that seems unlikely at that location. Washington Jefferson is a question but something tells me it was not quite as history recalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I say no. We could in theory top 30" but even that seems unlikely at that location. Washington Jefferson is a question but something tells me it was not quite as history recalls. even so, it was probably a 1 in 200 or 1 in 300 year storm.....I can't see DCA doing better than 22" in our lives...we have had every type of setup and have topped 20" once..and knickerbocker is probably 22-25" at a modern DCA even with 3" QPF... we have had every type of setup at DCA since they started measuring snow and we have a cap....I think anything over say 22-24" at DCA would be a 1 in 200 year event Cold Blizzard (1966) - 14" Prolonged semicold Blizzard (1996) - 17" Warm prolonged STJ slow mover (2009, 2010) - 16" and 18" very cold and quick-ish w/ monster rates (1979, 1983) - 19" and 17" very cold and prolonged QPF dump (2003) - 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 zwyts is right to think about this on time scales. A 40" snowstorm at DCA is theoretically possible, but might have a return period of once every 10,000 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DCA is unlikely not only to receive 40", but also 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 DCA is unlikely not only to receive 40", but also 2" I guess you saw the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DCA is unlikely not only to receive 40", but also 2" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I guess it is for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not with the way they do measurements. Suburbs within 3 miles reported 24" Feb 2010, they came in at like 17-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DC is the only KU city (DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia-NYC-Boston) that hasn't set its all-time single storm record within the last 20 years. We're more like Richmond in that regard, in that given where the current site is, it's really hard to imagine us hitting 28" (or 22" for Richmond from the 1/40 storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DC's not *that* far behind NYC in terms of racking up top-10 storm totals during the past 20 years (6 for NYC, 4 for DC) and top 5 storm totals (3 for NYC, 2 for DC), but we have a big gap between #1 and #2 that the other cities don't have. We might beat 2/1899 sometime soon, but the gap between that storm and the Knickerbocker storm suggests the 1/22 was an enormous anomaly for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 DC's not *that* far behind NYC in terms of racking up top-10 storm totals during the past 20 years (6 for NYC, 4 for DC) and top 5 storm totals (3 for NYC, 2 for DC), but we have a big gap between #1 and #2 that the other cities don't have. We might beat 2/1899 sometime soon, but the gap between that storm and the Knickerbocker storm suggests the 1/22 was an enormous anomaly for DC. Or a mis-measurement. I believe Ian has suggested they measured differently or at a difference location or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Or a mis-measurement. I believe Ian has suggested they measured differently or at a difference location or something? That doesn't matter for what I was talking about. 2/79, 2/83, 1/96, 2/03, 12/09, 2/10--- none of those would have been a 24" total at DCA no matter what the measuring technique was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 That doesn't matter for what I was talking about. 2/79, 2/83, 1/96, 2/03, 12/09, 2/10--- none of those would have been a 24" total at DCA no matter what the measuring technique was. It's not the measurement technique, it's the fact that DCA is just a piece of turd of a spot to measure snow. The Knickerbocker storm happened before DCA existed and that was measured in the city, in a more "normal" spot that didn't have zero elevation in the middle of a river. And I think Feb 2010 would've been similar, after all, American University reported 26" and was just a few miles from DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's not the measurement technique, it's the fact that DCA is just a piece of turd of a spot to measure snow. The Knickerbocker storm happened before DCA existed and that was measured in the city, in a more "normal" spot that didn't have zero elevation in the middle of a river. And I think Feb 2010 would've been similar, after all, American University reported 26" and was just a few miles from DCA AU is in upper NW, among the highest spots in DC, and definitely higher in elevation than the old measuring spot. Take Matt's total for 2/5/10 for what is more representative for the city-- he got 22-23" IIRC. We've all complained about DCA's location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 AU is in upper NW, among the highest spots in DC, and definitely higher in elevation than the old measuring spot. Take Matt's total for 2/5/10 for what is more representative for the city-- he got 22-23" IIRC. We've all complained about DCA's location. I think this is right for the Feb. 5-6 storm for the District proper...around 22-23". As I've said before, I used to live in the Capitol Hill neighborhood, not far from Eastern Market, and I regularly got more than DCA. Sometimes notably so (a few to several inches). You're right, there have been many complaints about DCA's location, and also their measurement quality. Some warranted, some not. I admittedly have chimed in on that a few times, even questioning how accurate they are. But on reflection, I don't think it's necessarily a matter of lousy measurements, it's a lousy and very unrepresentative location for the "official" amount that falls in the District (even if it is the closest in terms of distance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's not the measurement technique, it's the fact that DCA is just a piece of turd of a spot to measure snow. The Knickerbocker storm happened before DCA existed and that was measured in the city, in a more "normal" spot that didn't have zero elevation in the middle of a river. And I think Feb 2010 would've been similar, after all, American University reported 26" and was just a few miles from DCA AU is 8 mi NW and ~300' higher in elevation....it isnt that close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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