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Is it possible for DCA to get 40'' of snow and its inner suburbs to approach 48''?

Subtropics

By Subtropics,
in Mid Atlantic

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Subtropics

Subtropics

Posted
Posted

All of this coming from a single snow storm. Is this meteorologically possible? 

 

What would have to happen? (set-up wise)

 

If it isn't, what do you think is the absolute maximum possible snow total for DCA, and then closer suburbs such as Montgomery and Howard?

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TUweathermanDD

TUweathermanDD

Posted
Posted

All of this coming from a single snow storm? Is this meteorologically possible? 

 

What would have to happen? (set-up wise)

 

If it isn't, what do you think is the absolute maximum possible snow total for DCA, and then closer suburbs such as Montgomery and Howard?

Well I'm not gonna comment on the impossible, because it probably could happen, but places did receive almost 40" as Elkridge reportedly had 38" in 2/5-6/10 and places me-north of me had 33-37" in PDII

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AvantHiatus

AvantHiatus

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Strong greenland blocking would be required to allow for a slow movement of the coastal storm, whether it be a miller A or miller B. I imagine the only way to get a 40" event would be from a stationary cutoff low that somehow gets strong enough......high pressures and 50/50 low needs to be setup perfectly or you could end up with occlusion and warming, changing over to rain, light precip,etc.

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Posted
Posted

All of this coming from a single snow storm. Is this meteorologically possible? 

 

What would have to happen? (set-up wise)

 

If it isn't, what do you think is the absolute maximum possible snow total for DCA, and then closer suburbs such as Montgomery and Howard?

 

no

 

30" for DCA would be a 1 in 300 year event........I think around 22" is the cap for DCA and it would take a long duration high QPF event that doesn't mix...something like PD2 w/o the sleet....PD1 had 18.7"....anything over 20" would be a 1 in 150 year event.....personally I would be stunned if I see an event with more than 20" at DCA in my lifetime...

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

no

 

30" for DCA would be a 1 in 300 year event........I think around 22" is the cap for DCA and it would take a long duration high QPF event that doesn't mix...something like PD2 w/o the sleet....PD1 had 18.7"....anything over 20" would be a 1 in 150 year event.....personally I would be stunned if I see an event with more than 20" at DCA in my lifetime...

Or, 2/5-6/10 about five degrees F colder from the start. I think 20" would have been reached at DCA if the late-morning through mid-afternoon precip had accumulated well-- that was probably 1.5-2" of "wasted snow" at least--- and If the snow the rest of the 5th was drier/more powdery.

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TUweathermanDD

TUweathermanDD

Posted
Posted

Dca has no topography for orographic enhancement. It would be all synoptic / dynamic driven. That's like 4-5" liquid falling entirely as snow. I say virtually impossible in a single event.

Yea 40" around the metros, idk about that like I said. Would have to be once in many lifetimes. Maybe localized areas get the best rates under bands which models can't really be called. 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

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no

 

30" for DCA would be a 1 in 300 year event........I think around 22" is the cap for DCA and it would take a long duration high QPF event that doesn't mix...something like PD2 w/o the sleet....PD1 had 18.7"....anything over 20" would be a 1 in 150 year event.....personally I would be stunned if I see an event with more than 20" at DCA in my lifetime...

Pretty much agree. To get 40 inches with our usual 10:1 rations you'd need precip that was basically tropical in nature, like what we see with TS remnants around here. With that you bring the warmth up. Too cold of an airmass and you won't get the monster precip required. There is a reason the atmosphere works the way it does... physics.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

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Posted

Some possibilities that will easily give DC metro 30+ easy (with DCA well over 20")

1993 superstorm with a track 150 miles SE.

1996 blizzard without the lull

Knickerbocker

A colder Feb 5-6, 2010

A slower moving 1983, PDI 1979, 12/19/09

PDII that stays all snow

Don't know about 40 inches. I see 40 inches+ possible in the N & W suburbs but not in the city.

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Deck Pic

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Posted

I say no.

We could in theory top 30" but even that seems unlikely at that location.

Washington Jefferson is a question but something tells me it was not quite as history recalls.

 

even so, it was probably a 1 in 200 or 1 in 300 year storm.....I can't see DCA doing better than 22" in our lives...we have had every type of setup and have topped 20" once..and knickerbocker is probably 22-25" at a modern DCA even with 3" QPF...

 

we have had every type of setup at DCA since they started measuring snow and we have a cap....I think anything over say 22-24" at DCA would be a 1 in 200 year event

 

Cold Blizzard (1966)  - 14"

Prolonged semicold Blizzard (1996) - 17"

Warm prolonged STJ slow mover (2009, 2010) - 16" and 18"

very cold and quick-ish w/ monster rates (1979, 1983) - 19" and 17"

very cold and prolonged QPF dump (2003) - 17"

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  • 3 weeks later...
gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

DC's not *that* far behind NYC in terms of racking up top-10 storm totals during the past 20 years (6 for NYC, 4 for DC) and top 5 storm totals (3 for NYC, 2 for DC), but we have a big gap between #1 and #2 that the other cities don't have. We might beat 2/1899 sometime soon, but the gap between that storm and the Knickerbocker storm suggests the 1/22 was an enormous anomaly for DC.

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Subtropics

Subtropics

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DC's not *that* far behind NYC in terms of racking up top-10 storm totals during the past 20 years (6 for NYC, 4 for DC) and top 5 storm totals (3 for NYC, 2 for DC), but we have a big gap between #1 and #2 that the other cities don't have. We might beat 2/1899 sometime soon, but the gap between that storm and the Knickerbocker storm suggests the 1/22 was an enormous anomaly for DC.

Or a mis-measurement. I believe Ian has suggested they measured differently or at a difference location or something?

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Fozz

Fozz

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That doesn't matter for what I was talking about. 2/79, 2/83, 1/96, 2/03, 12/09, 2/10--- none of those would have been a 24" total at DCA no matter what the measuring technique was.

It's not the measurement technique, it's the fact that DCA is just a piece of turd of a spot to measure snow. The Knickerbocker storm happened before DCA existed and that was measured in the city, in a more "normal" spot that didn't have zero elevation in the middle of a river.

And I think Feb 2010 would've been similar, after all, American University reported 26" and was just a few miles from DCA

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gymengineer

gymengineer

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It's not the measurement technique, it's the fact that DCA is just a piece of turd of a spot to measure snow. The Knickerbocker storm happened before DCA existed and that was measured in the city, in a more "normal" spot that didn't have zero elevation in the middle of a river.

And I think Feb 2010 would've been similar, after all, American University reported 26" and was just a few miles from DCA

AU is in upper NW, among the highest spots in DC, and definitely higher in elevation than the old measuring spot. Take Matt's total for 2/5/10 for what is more representative for the city-- he got 22-23" IIRC.

We've all complained about DCA's location.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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AU is in upper NW, among the highest spots in DC, and definitely higher in elevation than the old measuring spot. Take Matt's total for 2/5/10 for what is more representative for the city-- he got 22-23" IIRC.

We've all complained about DCA's location.

I think this is right for the Feb. 5-6 storm for the District proper...around 22-23".  As I've said before, I used to live in the Capitol Hill neighborhood, not far from Eastern Market, and I regularly got more than DCA.  Sometimes notably so (a few to several inches).

 

You're right, there have been many complaints about DCA's location, and also their measurement quality.  Some warranted, some not.  I admittedly have chimed in on that a few times, even questioning how accurate they are.  But on reflection, I don't think it's necessarily a matter of lousy measurements, it's a lousy and very unrepresentative location for the "official" amount that falls in the District (even if it is the closest in terms of distance).

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It's not the measurement technique, it's the fact that DCA is just a piece of turd of a spot to measure snow. The Knickerbocker storm happened before DCA existed and that was measured in the city, in a more "normal" spot that didn't have zero elevation in the middle of a river.

And I think Feb 2010 would've been similar, after all, American University reported 26" and was just a few miles from DCA

 

AU is 8 mi NW and ~300' higher in elevation....it isnt that close

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