January 28-30 Severe threat. S Plains to TN valley to SE

[David Reimer]

SWODY1 at 12Z greatly expands the MDT Risk to include S IN, W KY, most of SE MO, SE OK, NE TX, and N LA.

I am thinking that this is a borderline-High Risk case.

 

I am thinking that is purely speculative and doesn't really matter. Even if they upgraded to High Risk at 20Z (not that I see that happening), watches will already be out and the event underway. Whether it is Moderate Risk or High Risk makes no difference at this point.

[SouthernNJ]

The storm SW of Nevada MO is close to TOR criteria.

 

[JoMo]

I'm wanting the line to make it here already, it has slowed down. Once the line is here and pushes through, that huge knot in my stomach will go away, lol

[Srain]

If we are going to see a significant outbreak, my hunch would be to watch E Arkansas/NE Louisiana/W Mississippi later today. Gravity waves are suggested across those regions via the latest visible imagery and may allow for some discrete development later this afternoon into the overnight hours. We will see.

[Ground Scouring]

Conditions are really ripening for tornado-producing supercell development over E OK / W AR in the next hour.

[Indystorm]

I'm wanting the line to make it here already, it has slowed down. Once the line is here and pushes through, that huge knot in my stomach will go away, lol

Cheers for the best in the most positive sense for you and Joplin residents.  But goodness, this is only January!

[JoMo]

Tornado warning a few counties north of here in MO

 

 

TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

  SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

 

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

 

* AT 1057 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY...AND MOVING

  NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

[Ozarkwx]

Pre-frontal band alluded to in the most recent Day 1, beginning to take shape.  

 

 

From a purely subjective perspective, the atmosphere has a bit of a ominous feel to it as this band approaches from the NW.  

[Indystorm]

Moderate risk of EF 2+ tornado probs in the newly issued watch for TX, OK, and AR.

[JoMo]

Cheers for the best in the most positive sense for you and Joplin residents.  But goodness, this is only January!

 

Thanks, pretty sure we're good here now. Temps just tanked to 63 from 70 on a west wind. Storms seem to be outflow dominated. At least here.

[NavarreDon]

Thanks, pretty sure we're good here now. Temps just tanked to 63 from 70 on a west wind. Storms seem to be outflow dominated. At least here.

 

Temp in Joplin @ 11:19 am 70° @ 12:07 pm 54°!

[blackjack123]

I am thinking that is purely speculative and doesn't really matter. Even if they upgraded to High Risk at 20Z (not that I see that happening), watches will already be out and the event underway. Whether it is Moderate Risk or High Risk makes no difference at this point.

   I agree with you but like you said it may not matter at this point. Some historical solid moderate risk days have outperformed some historical high risk days. March 1, 1997, November 23-24, 2001, May 22, 2011 and the recent Christmas outbreak are some of the moderate risks days that well overperformed and many others that have as well.

[Ed Lizard]

SPC RAP analyzed SigTorn and current radar suggest FSM area next in line for potentially significant severe.

[Ground Scouring]

Mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive due to the outflow boundary undercutting the rich boundary layer even as temperatures cool...this seems to be keeping more of a lid on severe activity in E OK / W AR than I anticipated.

[Indystorm]

There seem to be a string of short wave mesovortices in the general flow rather than one consolidated center, although I now see a lower pressure of 998 mb over central MO.  Much of the expectation in prior discussions has focused on this evening and tonight when the LLJ ramps up and mid levels cool.  I am still thinking eastern AR and se MO will be prime areas to watch.

[Ground Scouring]

Some fairly persistent rotation is showing up in the cell near Muskogee, OK...we might see a brief TOR Warning in some minutes.

[Indystorm]

I would expect a svr warning on the cell west of Rolla MO at 2.m. CST.

[Ground Scouring]

Hatched TOR probabilities of 60% (30% EF2+) in the TOR Watch over NE TX / SE OK / SW AR will likely bust in part due to the very weak mid-level lapse rates. MD 73 acknowledges this by now only mentioning the possibility of a tornado or two without expecting a real increase in local instability. As a result, the storms in the area are gradually evolving into a messy, non-discrete, banding QLCS with only weak rotation and outflow-dominance.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL OK...IN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVER ERN OK AND WRN AR BUT FEW HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR REMAINS INTENSE...AND SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA AS POCKETS OF HEATING ARE OCCURRING UPSTREAM ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED ACROSS ERN OK AND AR...AND RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER ERN OK WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0073.html

I am also becoming more skeptical about the threat later tonight due to the strengthening outflow boundary ahead of the messy QLCS...so maybe my early expectations re: the tornado threat will bust there too.

[SquatchinNY]

Are descrete cells supposed to fire soon?

[Buckeye05]

The amount of junk/non-severe showers over Arkansas is not going help the severe threat by any means.

[Ground Scouring]

Are descrete cells supposed to fire soon?

Any discrete formation will be unlikely prior to 03Z...and that prospect is starting to look less plausible now. This goes to demonstrate that the kinematics will be of constrained import if the mid-level instability and temperatures are warm / unfavorable, even in the South in winter. The posters and mets on the Southeast side seemed to have a better grasp of the linear, non-tornado threat than I--and perhaps some others--did here.

[LouWX]

This was always a linear event based on what analysis I have done... I'd really watch the OH/TN valleys tonight for some wicked wind gusts if this QLCS really gets going like the models are progging.

[thewxmann]

Hatched TOR probabilities of 60% (30% EF2+) in the TOR Watch over NE TX / SE OK / SW AR will likely bust in part due to the very weak mid-level lapse rates. MD 73 acknowledges this by now only mentioning the possibility of a tornado or two without expecting a real increase in local instability. As a result, the storms in the area are gradually evolving into a messy, non-discrete, banding QLCS with only weak rotation and outflow-dominance.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0073.html

I am also becoming more skeptical about the threat later tonight due to the strengthening outflow boundary ahead of the messy QLCS...so maybe my early expectations re: the tornado threat will bust there too.

 

But wait, if there's a 30% chance of EF2+, that means there's 70% chance of no EF2+... so that means it wasn't a bust.

 

The key really will be later on tonight when temperatures aloft begin to cool and the cap erodes. The question then will be storm mode. But until then, most storms will be elevated. Maybe an isolated tornado or two for any cell that can root in the BL, but I'm not holding my breath.

[SluggerWx]

SVR Warning on the cell south of Cherry Tree, OK as it approaches AR. This has a very good chance of putting a TOG, IMO.

 

Edit: And there's the TOR.

 

 

:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A  * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS  * UNTIL 330 PM CST  * AT 246 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF SHORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.  * SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NATURAL DAM...LEE CREEK...STRICKLER...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...BLACKBURN AND WINSLOW.

[tornadotony]

Storm NW of Ft. Smith REALLY ramping up...will likely need a TOR soon.

[tornadotony]

But wait, if there's a 30% chance of EF2+, that means there's 70% chance of no EF2+... so that means it wasn't a bust.

 

The key really will be later on tonight when temperatures aloft begin to cool and the cap erodes. The question then will be storm mode. But until then, most storms will be elevated. Maybe an isolated tornado or two for any cell that can root in the BL, but I'm not holding my breath.

I really don't know about that.  You're not going to get any sort of near-sfc stabilization tonight simply because of mechanical overturning in the boundary layer.

 

I love how everyone's starting to talk down this event even though it wasn't expect to really get going until after 00z anyway.  It's the same people all the time, too.  How about we just sit back and watch how things evolve for once?  A lot can and will happen between now and 00z-03z.

[tornadotony]

BTW, in the mid-levels of that storm on the AR/OK border, 154.4kt max delta-V at 4100ft.  That thing may produce a monster.

[SluggerWx]

At work, so no GR imagery for me. Here's my wunderground cap. Pretty tight couplet at .5 tilt

[SquatchinNY]

BTW, in the mid-levels of that storm on the AR/OK border, 154.4kt max delta-V at 4100ft. That thing may produce a monster.

Couplet is tightening, no?

And strengthening..

[on_wx]

BTW, in the mid-levels of that storm on the AR/OK border, 154.4kt max delta-V at 4100ft.  That thing may produce a monster.

 

Looks like a small debris ball. Looking on sat it's a heavily wooded area not much else