HM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 we never had blocking, tough to loose it when you never had it. We didn't lose the blocking. The reason our nads froze off last week because of blocking and the stratosphere. Quit perpetuating garbage. Ne subforum is a tough read these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 We didn't lose the blocking. The reason our nads froze off last week because of blocking and the stratosphere. Quit perpetuating garbage. Ne subforum is a tough read these days. He's the biggest troll going. We've had blocking near and north of AK for what...2+ weeks? Like you said, that's why we had the week long cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 He's the biggest troll going. We've had blocking near and north of AK for what...2+ weeks? Like you said, that's why we had the week long cold shot. I read what he wrote as related to the blocking NE of us. If we go another week of ball scratching it's going to get even worse. Nice to see the OP GFS tilt the scales, SW to NE pattern after about day 8 or 9...let's hope it's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 we never had blocking, tough to loose it when you never had it. yeah we had blocking...just not in the NAO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 So again.. Is Sunday our next snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 When I said "lose" I meant in the sense of the modeling...and then tendency for early winter deep -AO to lead to strong blocking later in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I read what he wrote as related to the blocking NE of us. If we go another week of ball scratching it's going to get even worse. Nice to see the OP GFS tilt the scales, SW to NE pattern after about day 8 or 9...let's hope it's real. i think that was obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 yeah we had blocking...just not in the NAO region. This was the past week: Obviously we had tremendous blocking up in the EPO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 noreaster is a troll...no need to defend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 meh few flurries So again.. Is Sunday our next snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 This was the past week: Obviously we had tremendous blocking up in the EPO region. okay...we had a temporary weak -NAO...cool. I hope we can have one again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I read what he wrote as related to the blocking NE of us. If we go another week of ball scratching it's going to get even worse. Nice to see the OP GFS tilt the scales, SW to NE pattern after about day 8 or 9...let's hope it's real. We'll get the srn stream fired up I think. If we can get that split flow look like the ensembles show...I think we'll be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 okay...we had a temporary weak -NAO...cool. I hope we can have one again. I didn't post the map to show NAO blocking. That anomaly there was just an extension of the PAC side block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I didn't post the map to show NAO blocking. That anomaly there was just an extension of the PAC side block. oh i was wondering lol. Yeah I am well aware of the -EPO blocking that we've had, along with a mostly -AO winter. But some of the long range modeling looks neither -AOish or -EPOish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 So again.. Is Sunday our next snow event? yes a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 yes a dusting.And what are you basing that on ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 And what are you basing that on ? Progressive pattern. I think we need to look further down the line. Maybe this weekend will drop some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 And what are you basing that on ? all available models including the JMA and DGEX, reading between the lines in this thread and most importantly recent Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Progressive pattern. I think we need to look further down the line. Maybe this weekend will drop some flurries. and that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 2/3 has had a few model runs here and there that give advisory totals, but most of them have been the typical coating to 2"....that's probably where you would want to start expectations on that system. As mentioned yesterday, I think the system behind it has more room to amplify...2/5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 2/3 has had a few model runs here and there that give advisory totals, but most of them have been the typical coating to 2"....that's probably where you would want to start expectations on that system. As mentioned yesterday, I think the system behind it has more room to amplify...2/5-6. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 2/3 has had a few model runs here and there that give advisory totals, but most of them have been the typical coating to 2"....that's probably where you would want to start expectations on that system. As mentioned yesterday, I think the system behind it has more room to amplify...2/5-6. Yeah agree as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The west coast of NAMR continues with split flow after 2/10. If there were to be a significant storm..it's after the 10th IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z GGEM today shows the potential. Miller B that just misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Anything intresting on the EURO for this weekend? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Here is a quick POP over the last few weeks. Thanks guys! I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between 1)Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east with a 2)short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for 3)Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving 4)Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a 5)second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half. Correction to forecast Jan 5 on warm for Jan 11-13 time frame.... Posted by QVectorman on 5 January 2013 - 03:11 PM in New England I had conflicting strat and GWO signals for the 10-13 time frame and I assumed that the strat signal for cold would over whelm the GWO signal for warmth and the cold air would dominate for that time frame. But the GFS seems to be hinting that the GWO will dominate instead for that time frame. 6)Which would change it to warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 which would put us back on track to a fall in 850 temps 1 or 2 days after that which lines up with the Jan 15-19 time cold pocket that I have forecasted previously. I still stand by a shortwave tracking through the central/eastern US although it may be weak Jan 10-11 as I stated last month. It appears the Jan 20-24 cold shot should be comparable in magnitude of the upcoming Jan 2-3 airmass. Also latest GWO numbers are currently trending towards an agreement of the Jan 20-24 date. I will have concrete confirmation or rejection of that assumption by Tues. Extending the outlook 7)Jan 24-26 show up as next pocket of cooler air...although I will say signals are mixed on this window date so I'm not too confident on this time frame producing a cooler airmass for the MW/NE. Although 8)Jan 26-30 looks very impressive and should out do the Jan 2-3 850mb cold air wrt temps. I will also say that it appears a lot of these dates are back to back and should mention that these forecasted chunks of cooler/colder air are cooler/colder relative to the air in place that they displace. So I don't claim to know the temperature range of the 850mb temps arriving...The concept can only forecast that it will be "colder" than the one that will be in place at the time of it's arrival and are associated with shortwaves so there will be brief time frames of southerly winds ahead of the short waves that will produce WAA ahead of waves and as a result might produce brief minor spikes in 850 temps and sfc temps in transition from time frame to time frame. When the signals are stronger an estimation of the temp of the air is possible such as the Jan. 2-3 and Jan 20-24 and Jan 26-30 episode. The other time frames are just hiccups in the stat. signal and coincide to minor dips in sfc temperatures relative to previous days' highs but I figure they are worth mentioning. Forecast of -33C temps along Canadian border...although I was about 4 days off and I adjusted the Jan 26-30 date to Jan 27-29 back on Jan 6.The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 15-19 range moving into the Jan 20-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 15-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border. With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too. 1)Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east 2)short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 3)Cooler Jan 10-13 -----CORRECTED in 6) 4)Cold Jan 15-19 time frame 5)second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24 6)warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 7)Jan 24-26 pocket of cooler air 8)Jan 26-30 cold or S/W-->Jan 27-29 I covered the S/W verification for event 2) for Jan 10-11 a couple weeks ago in my last POP post along with Event 1 so quick run down of the rest of these...I was off by about 1.5 days on the coldest temps, they settled in Jan 23 not the 24/25 like I expected. But we did see -33C at the MN/Can border on Jan 21. The Jan 27-29 cold shot didn't materialize the S/W is there but it didn't track far enough east to bring down any cold air so we have warmer temps east of the MS. Then on top of that we have another S/W right on it's heels that I spoke about back on Jan 18th which has strong southerly flow ahead of it that will spike temps for the 29 and 30th with just as strong cold blast behind it. This is one of those situations that I always had disclaimers about LOL. This is Albany's meteogram. 850 temps for Jan 21 SW for Jan 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Anything intresting on the EURO for this weekend? -skisheep No. Just need to get through the next 8-10 days, then it'll get much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Euro has weak low developing over CC Sunday aftn, Might be a 1-3 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Euro has weak low developing over CC Sunday aftn, Might be a 1-3 deal. Those systems at that range have been consistent on just about all the models. GGEM/Euro/GFS have done it what seems like countless times (usually with a bigger system) only to suppress. Not having much confidence in a weak solution being able to pull it off but who knows. 2 strong s/ws. Lets keep the roads salt free for awhile anyway. This is the DOT's biggest nightmare in CT, they've been pre-treating since Labor Day...about to all get washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Euro has weak low developing over CC Sunday aftn, Might be a 1-3 deal. given the way things have gone recently, that may be a good starting point (near CHH or ACK)...should end up about 50 miles SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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