bluewave Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With a shortwave digging that far south on the gfs we won't be getting a clipper. It's unlikely that the GFS solution will verify given the upper pattern. But the Euro and ensembles could shift a little further south, but not like the GFS is showing. Still someone could get a 1-3 or 2-4 if the Euro comes on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 160 hrs ? I'm still pissing on sparkplugs my prostate is screaming I'm hitting Broward county next week i hope everyone shares the wealth.peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 At the very least the pattern set up is goin to where we thought it would go . So these chances are goin to pop up from model run to model run . Can`t say for sure which solution I would buy right now , but when you have all this ammo its more than likely the atmosphere produces " something " . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's unlikely that the GFS solution will verify given the upper pattern. But the Euro and ensembles could shift a little further south, but not like the GFS is showing. Still someone could get a 1-3 or 2-4 if the Euro comes on board. Not sure if I agree here just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's unlikely that the GFS solution will verify given the upper pattern. But the Euro and ensembles could shift a little further south, but not like the GFS is showing. Still someone could get a 1-3 or 2-4 if the Euro comes on board. Assuming the Euro is correct in its H5 depiction for the event. It's quite possible that the synoptic evolution as progged is not entirely accurate given we're beyond 5 days from this potential. Euro ensembles are superior in skill to the GFS but their highest scores are in the medium range. If the Euro/ensembles maintain the northern idea over the next couple days then it will become more believable to me. As it stands, the GFS solution is certainly on the table as a conceivable option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Assuming the Euro is correct in its H5 depiction for the event. It's quite possible that the synoptic evolution as progged is not entirely accurate given we're beyond 5 days from this potential. Euro ensembles are superior in skill to the GFS but their highest scores are in the medium range. If the Euro/ensembles maintain the northern idea over the next couple days then it will become more believable to me. As it stands, the GFS solution is certainly on the table as a conceivable option.Very well put. I love the detail you put into this stuff. I agree completely. The Euro Control run had something big yesterday, the Canadian this afternoon, now the GFS. The potential is definitely there. At day 8 right now the GFS actually has a slight advantage right now and at day 10 the GFS has an even larger advantage. The higher resolution only really helps when you get down closer to 6 days, as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What someone with some skill might want to do is to try and extrapolate the 144hr UKMET because it currently has the highest accuracy in that range, and I am not good enough to be able to do that. I can't really see anything there, but like I said, I really don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 By the way, the JMA also has a similar track to the Canadian and the GFS with the low next Tuesday, taking it to the Delmarva, but does not bomb it out. It still manages to produce a high ratio .20-.25 for us though. I only have access to the pay images after 144 hrs, but here is the 144 hr image from a free site. You can at least extrapolate from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ensemble member P008 is nearly identical in placement, timing, and strength to the Euro Control run of yesterday. A whole bunch of other interesting possibilities in there as well. I think we may just be in business here. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 While we are all nowcasting tonight's event, and paying attention to next week......the NAM just came much further north wiith thursday night's event......precip into south jersey now, decent shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes nam try's to get snow into the area Thursday night. Too bad it's the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06_county054.gif While we are all nowcasting tonight's event, and paying attention to next week......the NAM just came much further north wiith thursday night's event......precip into south jersey now, decent shift north wow...close for alot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes nam try's to get snow into the area Thursday night. Too bad it's the nam lol Srefs do as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes nam try's to get snow into the area Thursday night. Too bad it's the nam lol The NAM at 54 hours though is alot more believable than the NAM at 84...I'll tend to give it some say when its different than the other models at that range vs. 84 though not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM at 54 hours though is alot more believable than the NAM at 84...I'll tend to give it some say when its different than the other models at that range vs. 84 though not much. Outside the 29th storm, it's performance this winter had left alot to be desired. I for one hope it scores a coop. But I'm not dancing with her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With such an extensive ridge out on the west coast , it should agrue for more troughiness in the east thru the FRI period . We will hav confluence to deal with but at only 54 hrs its not like its a nothing look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Rgem is way north an west for Friday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A little more phasing with the northern branch and the Thursday storm would make it up to NYC. It will take a couple of more runs to see if this is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A little more phasing with the northern branch and the Thursday storm would make it up to NYC. It will take a couple of more runs to see if this is a possibility. This is as nasty a northward trend with every storm we've seen since probably the 03-04 or 04-05 winter, everything seems to come more north and west inside 3 days. We probably need to see the storm over North Carolina at day 5 to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A little more phasing with the northern branch and the Thursday storm would make it up to NYC. It will take a couple of more runs to see if this is a possibility. it has been a NW trend winter so far. just not sure how much the deep south ULL can phase, as the northern branch doesnt really have any pieces breaking off to accomplish this. but the fact the ULL in the deep south doesnt shear out as it heads E, as guidance had it doing the previous couple days, might bode well for future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0z gfs has the miller b next week. a little late for most of us, SNE esp the cape gets hit good....but its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NYC east still manages about 0.25+ with low thicknesses could easily be a 3-6 type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS also came north for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS also came north for Friday yea its matching up with tonights nam run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Snowgoose what's your gut tell you about Fridays event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Snowgoose what's your gut tell you about Fridays event? Probably misses for the most part...the pattern to me is just too unfavorable for it to get much more north....may be some snow though, especially for LI and parts of coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 00z GFS is ripe with storm chances. Including Fridays event I count 5 threats all of which at least deliver some snow between now and January 30th. Interesting pattern unfolding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I thought I was the only one going crazy, the Friday event has been shown by the models, but now it's really making itself known. Could it be one of those surprise snowfall events? I find those that sneak up on us much more memorable than something we track Day 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The best chances of snow will emerge between the 20th-25th. The PNA will skyrocket and the NAO will slither towards neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ggem nails us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.