DopplerWx Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Definitely a nice little low level swirl on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 In cases like this... perhaps the best model is use is actually the HRRR as it is the only model (to my knowledge) that attempts to assimilate radar reflectivity (by prescribing vertical velocity) into its data assimilation. Unfortunately, it doesn't do too much with the system with the convection fizzling after 12z tomorrow. Given that HRRR traditionally has a bias towards overdoing weak low-level vortices, that probably doesn't bode well for this fragile low-level vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 This is going to be only the sixth year since 1960 without a hurricane through August 31st. Here are the first dates and hurricanes those years: Gustav Sept. 11, 2002 • Erin, Sept. 9, 2001. • Debby, Sept. 2, 1988. • Diana, Sept. 10, 1984. • Arlene, Sept. 3, 1967. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 At some point by Sept. 10th I think we will see 18/8/3 (Dr. Gray's 8/1 forecast) looking pretty unlikely. There's nothing that looks H or MH ish for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 At some point by Sept. 10th I think we will see 18/8/3 (Dr. Gray's 8/1 forecast) looking pretty unlikely. There's nothing that looks H or MH ish for the next 10 days. The Klotzbach/Gray bi-monthly forecast with the second two weeks of August above normal ACE may not work out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Worthless for any true afficionado, but GFS and Canadian both suggest subtropical development way in the middle of nowhere, near 40ºN, developing on a frontal zone. Could get a sub-tropical T number high enough for a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Can't believe this. Every year there's always something brewing around this time, which is almost the historical peak. Looking at the GFS and EURO 12z's, there is not much there either. Could be a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 We're now in phase 1 of the MJO (the crowd cheers and is on its feet) and it is expected to get much stronger in amplitude the next few days. Also, it is forecasted to remain in phase 1 or 2 at 1.50+ amplitude for much of the period between now and 9/7. Let's see if we get some TC development between now and 9/7. I'll be surprised if a TC doesn't develop between now and 9/7 that later becomes a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Another mind blowing fact: at this rate, through 9/1 (and probably longer) we will not have had a single MH hour in our hemisphere. When was the last time (if ever) this has happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Another mind blowing fact: at this rate, through 9/1 (and probably longer) we will not have had a single MH hour in our hemisphere. When was the last time (if ever) this has happened? I assume you're talking about east of the dateline, since the WPAC has already had some major typhoons. But the last time the Atlantic and the East/Central Pacific went into September without a major hurricane was 1981. The first major hurricane that year (in either basin) was Hurricane Floyd in the Atlantic, on September 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 I assume you're talking about east of the dateline, since the WPAC has already had some major typhoons. But the last time the Atlantic and the East/Central Pacific went into September without a major hurricane was 1981. The first major hurricane that year (in either basin) was Hurricane Floyd in the Atlantic, on September 7. Yeah, east of the dateline. Thanks for the info. If we can't have any hurricanes, I sure do hope we can at least set a record. When you're at the bottom there's no way to go but up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 10% chance on wave still over land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 10% chance on wave still over land There is hope. That it will fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 This is just getting strange. Two African disturbances at the end of August that have unfavorable conditions ahead of them (according to the TWO). I guess it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 10% chance on wave still over land Disgusting. The only promising thing in that picture is the "Go to Eastern Pacific Outlook" link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 I'm currently in my hotel room in Las Vegas, decided to hit up a look at the tropics and I'm astounded by the lack of activity. This time last year I left for Vegas this same week with Hurricane Isaac and when I went to the NHC website a few days later we already had Joyce, Hurricane Kirk reach 90 kt and were working on Hurricane Leslie. This year...nothing. This thread should be titled Atlantic Tropical NON-Action 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 If something doesn't happen soon this season could go by without a single hurricane in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 If something doesn't happen soon this season could go by without a single hurricane in the Atlantic. I'll bet you $10,000 that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 I'll bet you $10,000 that doesn't happen. I'm sure they'll be at least one fish or maybe an October major in the Caribbean that kills thousands and then make me feel bad about being a tropics fan. I don't even remember the early 1980s, my only tropical information about 10 minutes before the hour with Dr. Hope, but despite the AMO and ENSO, looking like an early 80s cold AMO and warm ENSO kinds of year. Quick Wiki check, 79, 80 and 81 were actually decent seasons. OK, I just remember 1982, the year I went into boot camp in October, as an incredibly boring season. Or, this year is duller than most inactive phase hurricane seasons. ETA: I finally has internet for Hurricane Mitch, and was all excited, and sending e-mails to my friends, and then, well, I don't want Third World people getting majors. Just Mobile through Long Island, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 This is just getting strange. Two African disturbances at the end of August that have unfavorable conditions ahead of them (according to the TWO). I guess it is what it is. Yeah. I've gone from frustrated to concerned. Like, wtf is going on?? Disgusting. The only promising thing in that picture is the "Go to Eastern Pacific Outlook" link. I hear ya, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 00z GFS looks like barf. It does show a lot of rainfall in the BOC day7-15 so it's possible something could spin up there again. It shows a storm there around day 15 but thats the only interesting part of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 00z GFS looks like barf. It does show a lot of rainfall in the BOC day7-15 so it's possible something could spin up there again. It shows a storm there around day 15 but thats the only interesting part of the run. Actually, that BoC cyclone festering there in the BoC is vaguely interesting-- especially to me, since I have subzero interest in any of that African crap. Our hopes for an interesting scenario lie with homebrews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 The disturbance off the coast of Maine caught my eye. What do you think the chances are for subtropical development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Yeah. I've gone from frustrated to concerned. Like, wtf is going on?? I hear ya, dude. It's almost as if the tropics are in the Twilight Zone. I can almost see Rod Serling doing an episode on the strangely quiet behavior of the tropics near its peak. Well, the MJO is now over the amplitude of 1.50 (solid and rising) in phase 1, a very favorable phase . Let's see if the tropics will be turning over a new leaf over the next two weeks or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 The disturbance off the coast of Maine caught my eye. What do you think the chances are for subtropical development? The FSU phase space diagrams look less than enthusiastic, with the CMC the most aggressive in getting any kind of warm core going, but even then pretty shallow. Sea surface temperatures are crappy at around 21 C but juuuuust enough to sustain the kind of convection a SubTC needs. The thing is, it's just so far north, it probably has at most 12 hours to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Folks, Fwiw, which isn't much more than entertainment, the 0Z 8/29 CMC has a strengthening 976 mb hurricane at day 10 moving NW toward the US east coast trapped under a ridge after failing to recurve before then: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 This year is turning out to be an extreme version of the more suppressed tropical convection pattern that began after the 2005 season and intensified over the last several years. 2013 so far JAS 2005 JAS 2006-2012 JAS 1995-2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Folks, Fwiw, which isn't much more than entertainment, the 0Z 8/29 CMC has a strengthening 976 mb hurricane at day 10 moving NW toward the US east coast trapped under a ridge after failing to recurve before then: glb00_240_4pan.gif So we are down to 10 day CMC forecasts for hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 So we are down to 10 day CMC forecasts for hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 So we are down to 10 day CMC forecasts for hope? "Hope" is a strong word in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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