weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 i think last night's was better. Today's was more wound up but last nights may have been closer in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 To me it looks like a potential, note potential, sharp gradient system that's flying through. The GEFS shifted NW with the the 1" line but actually pulled the .25/.5 a bit SE. That to me is generally not the best sign of a pending more expansive/NW scenario. If I had to do a forecast for down here just based on what's available so far it'd be .2 or .3" QPF confined kind of tight to SE MA/Plymouth SW. More over the Cape itself. Not much (less than .2" NW of there). The UK and CMC moved or support better the GFS type solution. The GEFS being more amped is of course a red flag, but I think the op Euro from last night needs to be discarded at this point, it was too extreme (for now). JMHO I agree on the sharp gradient. Things look spread out and light on the approach, but once it gets cranking either you're in the money or you're completely left out in the cold, it seems. Sharp cutoff seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Today's was more wound up but last nights may have been closer in? I see now it had a bigger precip shield and deepened as it was near the Cape, todays deepens later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I will never forget being introduced to your daughter simply as "Zeus." No complaints, honestly. And what, you don't like mid 40's and wind-driven rain in late December? Tsk tsk. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that the Euro doesn't completely retract the bold statement it made at 00z. I, like many, do not expect anything close to consistency with such an amplified solution seeing as few of the other models have left room for it and it's really a standalone run, but I'd just like it to be a hit and not a whiff. Yeah I had a mega senior moment and it was taking too long to remember Brett so I defaulted to Zeus...lol. Hard to believe it was that long ago. I'm now old by all measures and my daughter is a comely teen. It snowed better in those days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 why? Last Night it's kind of splitting hairs but i think last night's was a bit sharper and got the comma head onto the coast...12z didn't look like it did that. at least based on the ewall site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I just keep looking at this and seeing Boxing Day 2010 only farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Indv 12z GFS Ensm. members. Looks like a solid hit on most. 60h 66h 72h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 it's kind of splitting hairs but i think last night's was a bit sharper and got the comma head onto the coast...12z didn't look like it did that. at least based on the ewall site. Yea I saw that after I posted. Euro should be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah I had a mega senior moment and it was taking too long to remember Brett so I defaulted to Zeus...lol. Hard to believe it was that long ago. I'm now old by all measures and my daughter is a comely teen. It snowed better in those days.... That's hilarious. Introduced as Zeus. That's something I'd do. Euro is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 UKMET link for those that don't have it. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I just keep looking at this and seeing Boxing Day 2010 only farther east didn't you say that about the last storm? It looks nothing like boxing day even if it ends up being a good hit. There was a massive 500mb cut-off over the SE and the Mid-Atlantic during Boxing Day. This is a relatively small but sharp shortwave deepening rapidly on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 UKMET link for those that don't have it. http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=060 Thanks. Euro already stretching the isobars at 36. Looks like it'll take the intensity down a few notches caving towards the GFS/weaker solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If the EURO holds, I'll be interested because despite the fact that it's thermal fields spit the bit with respect to this current system, it was dead on with regard to it's depiction of that precip s of LI exploding....was just a ton of rain here by that stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euros going to delight based on the 54 hour depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euros going to delight based on the 54 hour depiction. Talk dirty to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euros going to delight based on the 54 hour depiction. Looks a little further NW with the precip anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euros going to delight based on the 54 hour depiction. Yeah it may be strong. Well edit, it's not going to be like the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euros going to delight based on the 54 hour depiction. Spoke too fast. Looks cmc esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 should be flatter than 00z without a doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Feels good not to fear amplification for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's a few notches east and weaker by 60. Less early phasing. similar now to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Christ...fun for a moment. Looks like nuisance it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Jerry cteases us once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Small little iterations make big sensible wx differences for millions of folks. This is not a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Advisory level snowfall for coastal and eastern areas. Meh. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Small little iterations make big sensible wx differences for millions of folks. This is not a done deal. You ever work for a strip club? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still a plowable event for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Starts to go to town a little later this run just to the north around 40/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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