EasternUSWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I will take Gfs Euro combo all day. All snow event looks to be in big trouble. Ya just like they were over ND a few days ago? You'll see it shift back and forth but with the blocking it'll end east. We seen it with the past storm it kept transferring quicker and quicker as the event neared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hearing less confluence and weaker first storm allowing it to cut west of mtns...as per red taggers in other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ahhh yes... storm today / gone tomorrow. It's winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I wouldn't live and die on every model run. Still a 4 day event with many more runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 "A measurement of how much wind has passed a given point in a period of time. A wind blowing at three miles per hour for an entire hour would give a wind run of three miles. Cumulus calculates wind run by noting the average wind speed every minute, and adding in a minute's worth of 'distance' corresponding to that speed. So the wind run for a particular period is effectively an indication of the average wind speed over that period. A wind run of 240 miles over the course of a day, for example, means that the average wind speed over the day was 10 mph." It basically allows one to measure how windy a given period is, at least, that's what I use it for. You can divide wind run by the measurement period and determine average wind speed, including gusts, for said period: Today (so far): 105 miles/ 13.5 hours = 7.8 mph 10/29/2012 (Period which registered Sandy's lowest pressure): 97.4 miles/24 hours = 4.05 mph Mets might have another use, or might not use it at all. I had never heard of it until I started using Cumulus software for my PWS. thanks for the explanation...I never heard that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18Z Nam = Scrooge for a white christmas. Will GFS follow suit and destroy our White Christmas hopes? Bing......Bing......where are you?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lol everyone goes to rain on xmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 wow torch on 18z bahh humbug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lol everyone goes to rain on xmas storm. No, we go to freezing drizzle. Please don't post bad model info. You got in trouble a lot for that the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z was crap but it's 18z we will see what 0z suite holds. Not freaking out over one run. This crap happens all the time. Fact is we had cmc, ukmet, jma east and gfs and euro west. Things could easily keep jumping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Dont even look at 0z nam lol. Xmas storm is a mess. Done with work at least for the year sent out last progress report today haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Plenty of time Yeah one run we will be high fives. Next run jumping ship and then don't forget the we need a wiggle east or west. Jamie do you have a link for the euro totals you would care to share. I don't have many bookmarks for the Euro. Thanks Just what I said the other night. Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z worse than 12z....and we are within 90 hours of start time. Storm tracks up ohio valley on gfs..torching most of PA with soaking rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I am leaving this board. Had a good run with you guys but, I feel it's bad luck and too much negative fibe on here. Have a good one everyone. If you'd like to chat with me FB friend me. Forecaster Zak Brisko. Peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Later bud, merry christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Also Im out for awhile...have some stuff to get done and this model stuff is killing me. Prob. a healthy idea to take a breather with this stuff for awhile. Have a safe, happy Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Bahaha first two frames of the post XMas storm for UNV as Euro text data just starting to roll. 850 temps in blue, precip in green. WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.6 -4.2 1017 88 99 0.38 555 542 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -3.8 1007 90 91 0.68 548 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is all snow for JST, AOO, UNV, IPT, AVP and about 1.1-1.2" QPF. MDT looks like some snow to mix/rain. York/Lancaster looks like a little snow over to rain. Just judging from text data for now till i see maps at 2am. Essentially back to where we were impact wise last night except maybe a bit warmer in York/Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Thanks Mag Looks like the Euro and GFS are some what in agreement with the low. Just not temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Euro gets the secondary rolling better than the GFS, already having reflection on the other side of the Apps in NC while primary is only up to eastern KY. The GFS actually doesn't really have a secondary with its solution, instead taking the low up west and eventually floating northeast right over the middle of PA, hence the eventual torch and rain. Typically this setup likes to fire up a secondary low, GFS and Euro do both have 1030 or so highs to our north. My opinion several days ago was that this system was going to try to cut, but eventually form a secondary and create a mess for central PA. By a mess i meant a long duration, snow to ice/sleet to rain type deal for a lot of people. I was actually rather surprised models obliged even further and have had all snow solutions for a good part of the area the last couple days up until Saturday's runs. If we can force the secondary to pop early enough, we'll be good to go. Even if the primary hangs on longer, I believe a much icier scenario would be in the cards instead of any easy change to rain. The Lower Sus Valley is probably not going to get away from mixing issues either way, as the NAO (now forecast to swing positive for this storm) probably means any secondary low is going to be in real close (most likely a coastal plain runner). We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This pattern is so dynamic that I don't think the models will nail anything down with certainty before 24 hours. We have had some extreme flip flops lately that have caused everyone to jump off the cliff. I still think significant winter weather is possible here and we can still end up with a decent plowable snow albeit with ptype issues. With the Euro coming east the question is will the GFS follow and will there be another minor or dramatic shift? Who knows, but it will be interesting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yesterday's wind run ended up at 189 miles, which worked out to an average of 7.8 mph. One of the windier days on record here. Not too concerned about the upcoming weather events, either it happens or it doesn't. Nothing gained, nothing lost and there isn't anything anyone can do about it anyway. I don't understand the extreme emotions present at times, especially when considering that meteorology is a scientific field. Oh well, to each his own Edit: MAG, thanks for continuing to provide detailed discussion, I enjoy reading your posts quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Also Im out for awhile...have some stuff to get done and this model stuff is killing me. Prob. a healthy idea to take a breather with this stuff for awhile. Have a safe, happy Christmas everyone! Just when the Euro starts to **** with us, you leave. You can't miss this. It's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I am leaving this board. Had a good run with you guys but, I feel it's bad luck and too much negative fibe on here. Have a good one everyone. If you'd like to chat with me FB friend me. Forecaster Zak Brisko. Peace. WTF!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The Euro gets the secondary rolling better than the GFS, already having reflection on the other side of the Apps in NC while primary is only up to eastern KY. The GFS actually doesn't really have a secondary with its solution, instead taking the low up west and eventually floating northeast right over the middle of PA, hence the eventual torch and rain. Typically this setup likes to fire up a secondary low, GFS and Euro do both have 1030 or so highs to our north. My opinion several days ago was that this system was going to try to cut, but eventually form a secondary and create a mess for central PA. By a mess i meant a long duration, snow to ice/sleet to rain type deal for a lot of people. I was actually rather surprised models obliged even further and have had all snow solutions for a good part of the area the last couple days up until Saturday's runs. If we can force the secondary to pop early enough, we'll be good to go. Even if the primary hangs on longer, I believe a much icier scenario would be in the cards instead of any easy change to rain. The Lower Sus Valley is probably not going to get away from mixing issues either way, as the NAO (now forecast to swing positive for this storm) probably means any secondary low is going to be in real close (most likely a coastal plain runner). We'll see. FWIW the NAM has a primary only going up to our west but then again it's the NAM in lol range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol Im still watching but lol this thing has cutter written all over it, nam has rain in cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FWIW the NAM has a primary only going up to our west but then again it's the NAM in lol range. Yea the NAM/SREF's first looks at this event haven't been pretty, thats for sure. We need the Euro's quicker transfer over the mountains. Still think a solution similar to the 0z Euro seems the most viable given 1030-1032mb high up north. I mean NAM has the single primary rolling up into a 1032 high.. would have to think there'd be at least more reflection to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If his leaving gives us THIS, than let him be gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What the hell happened last night? Not to models but our members?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol Im still watching but lol this thing has cutter written all over it, nam has rain in cleveland. 84 hour NAM lol...the only use the model has at that range is to support one's delusion, whether that's being a wishcaster weenie or a negative little puss weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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