skiier04 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hey guys!!! Just found this forum-- recognize some of you from the old EUSwx forum days!! Glad to find an active place for some CPA weather discussion... this upcoming event has brought my inner weenie back out Of course, I knew our big-dog all snow solutions from a few days ago would change. I'll take anything at this point though-- if there's anything I've learned over the past few years its not to get too excited until the storm is on your doorstep-- and if you live in CPA it still might bust Thanks for the info on the Euro MAG!! Sounds like a sloppy but wintry solution still. Lets hope for a colder trend asap!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hey guys!!! Just found this forum-- recognize some of you from the old EUSwx forum days!! Glad to find an active place for some CPA weather discussion... this upcoming event has brought my inner weenie back out Of course, I knew our big-dog all snow solutions from a few days ago would change. I'll take anything at this point though-- if there's anything I've learned over the past few years its not to get too excited until the storm is on your doorstep-- and if you live in CPA it still might bust Thanks for the info on the Euro MAG!! Sounds like a sloppy but wintry solution still. Lets hope for a colder trend asap!!! glad to see you found the forum...welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I wish I could go back to the late 1970's when I was a teen-ager and I would listen to the forecast on the radio and then I would look out the window all day and see if the storm would start as rain, sleet or snow. I remember being out with my friends in the slop and then the excitement when it changed to snow at any time. I am sure it was more fun not knowing what a model was. It was, and I made a post about it in either this thread or one of the Philly threads. Back then, before even the weather channel, all we had was the weather radio, the TV weather segment, and the front or back window of the house. No models, no radar, no message boards. It was a simpler, and sometimes more pleasureable way, to enjoy our hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It was, and I made a post about it in either this thread or one of the Philly threads. Back then, before even the weather channel, all we had was the weather radio, the TV weather segment, and the front or back window of the house. No models, no radar, no message boards. It was a simpler, and sometimes more pleasureable way, to enjoy our hobby. not me...i couldnt stand not having any up to date info. the radio just kept repeating the same thing over and over...it would drive me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 But you live in Clearfield, you can build snowmen Oct-April. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ensembles look fantastic. Will be interesting to see what the 00Z GFS say tonight. I have my doubts on high amounts still, we have seen this song and dance way to many times before. The WAA is almost always the winner in anything that decides to cut west of the apps even during a transfer. It just seems like the trend in the last 10 years has been for more mixing events with a cutting low. Just hope that 1030mb HP can do some work in keeping in the CAD for at least some good front end thump. I always worry about sleet killing the totals, it sucks that the sleet ratios eat up all the QPF amounts at 1-3:1 . Even with a juicy system like this, I always try to keep totals on the low end of 4-8" , especially towards the north central mtns, where the cold air always hangs on the longest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 But you live in Clearfield, you can build snowmen Oct-April. Right? yeah i wish.. its been a little while since we have had a good c-pa winter. i rode my snowmobile 1 time last winter and that was in 5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 After looking at some of the other models, I think the GFS is pretty out to lunch with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 After looking at some of the other models, I think the GFS is pretty out to lunch with the storm. The GFS, out to lunch? Wow, surely that never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hey guys!!! Just found this forum-- recognize some of you from the old EUSwx forum days!! Glad to find an active place for some CPA weather discussion... this upcoming event has brought my inner weenie back out Of course, I knew our big-dog all snow solutions from a few days ago would change. I'll take anything at this point though-- if there's anything I've learned over the past few years its not to get too excited until the storm is on your doorstep-- and if you live in CPA it still might bust Thanks for the info on the Euro MAG!! Sounds like a sloppy but wintry solution still. Lets hope for a colder trend asap!!! Hey, Skiier welcome back. Picked a good time to show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The GFS, out to lunch? Wow, surely that never happens. The NAM is even more loltastic. Transfers the low from Cincy to Western NC. I have never seen that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well, fer wut it werth the 18Z nam has the transfer to another low now and its a better run. It does have a bit more qpf for Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The NAM is even more loltastic. Transfers the low from Cincy to Western NC. I have never seen that happen. That's one strange run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That's one strange run. Someone in the Central thread made a good point. It looks like the NAM is stuck between strictly one strong primary low, and a transfer towards the coast, and couldn't "make up it's mind." Makes sense given how convoluted that run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well least the NAM is now starting to transfer the low instead of keeping one primary low west of the mountains. Plethora of precip in central counties.. has a pretty long period of sleet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I suspect there will be a coastal.... and that the models are struggling with identifying the way it's going to work. -PNA argues for a cutter, but the Xmas eve storm provides a decent setup, and I don't think the models are able to balance these 2 items out. Coastal transfers are historically tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I suspect there will be a coastal.... and that the models are struggling with identifying the way it's going to work. -PNA argues for a cutter, but the Xmas eve storm provides a decent setup, and I don't think the models are able to balance these 2 items out. Coastal transfers are historically tricky Actually, not sure if this will ultimately affect the exact track but this storm is going to be occuring around this major upswing of the PNA finally heading positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gfs is very very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This is my best guess atm. I put the Pittsburgh area as Equal Chances because I think it will just depend on if this system transfers over to the secondary. If no transfer happens, or if it does later, I dont think the area labeled in black stands a chance for anything greater than 2" . The eastern plains could still receive a great storm, again it just depends if the secondary develops or if the primary LP doesnt cut so far west. My totals are fairly on the low side, I plan on a mix affecting the overall totals, but we will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So if I get 3" between now and Dec. 31 ill be ecstatic. Not looking like a big event here due to temp issues. Oh well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sooooooo... where we at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think this is basic gist... an inch or two late tomorrow...and mix to rain wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think this is basic gist... an inch or two late tomorrow...and mix to rain wednesday. If you're going to call the Wednesday-Thursday storm "mix to rain" for everyone, back it up with model data. Otherwise, you'll find your posts disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thank you, Maude. I was asking that hoping for a model run as the banter here sometimes makes things confusing to read. If "mis to rain for everyone" was true right now, than wunderground is trolling me. Hard. From wunderground for zipcode 12764 (Three Springs, Huntingdon county) Monday Overcast with a chance of snow, then ice pellets and snow in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 30F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 80% . Monday Night Overcast with ice pellets, then ice pellets after midnight. Fog overnight. Low of 21F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70% with accumulations up to 2 in. possible. Wednesday Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers, then snow in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 30F with a windchill as low as 7F. Breezy. Winds from the East at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80% with accumulations up to 10 in. possible. Wednesday Night Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers. Fog overnight. Low of 23F. Winds from the North at 10 to 15 mph shifting to the WNW after midnight. Chance of snow 70% with accumulations up to 6 in. possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Potter, your stomping grounds look decent. Come back home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty good improvements on the NAM. Energy transfer is further south, and the 850 line doesn't progress as far into PA. Still a weird transfer from just south of Cincy to the Western NC/VA border, but it is a pretty big change as far as how the transfer works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks better...but not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like a decent little storm for you guys! I hope everyone gets a chance to cash in this one, root for that quick transfer!! I wish I was back home, I miss the area, heck PA in general. I really really miss the weather and talking on the CPA forum. I dont get much of a chance to track weather anymore and it sucks! Texas weather is sooooo boring, always sunny! well except for the occasional hurricane and severe wx in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That region is boring, for the sx stuff you gotta go an hour and a half north toward Lufkin to get into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like a decent little storm for you guys! I hope everyone gets a chance to cash in this one, root for that quick transfer!! I wish I was back home, I miss the area, heck PA in general. I really really miss the weather and talking on the CPA forum. I dont get much of a chance to track weather anymore and it sucks! Texas weather is sooooo boring, always sunny! well except for the occasional hurricane and severe wx in the spring. Potter, I am heading to Wellsville, NY to see the relatives on Wednesday. Look to be in a pretty good spot. Trying to leave early from Pittsburgh on Wednesday to stay ahead of it. I will try to post from there because I know it is not too far North from your stomping ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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