Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Could be wrong, but looking at hour 75 on the GFS, I think it is going to cave to the Euro with the faster energy transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 hahaha true...gfs is looking just like it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol...ok. The GFS is a mess. It does a quicker transfer, but transfer the energy to central Virginia. I doubt that is a realistic scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This storm is a mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This storm is a mess! I imagine the models all getting together for a meeting and basically saying at the end "**** if I know, what does MAG think?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 lol jamie you keep me coming back haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Anybody have a dartboard? I'm calling Miss Cleo, she'll know what's up with this. In any event, time to be a little productive and go Christmas shopping. Intentionally, I wait until the "last minute" because I like going shopping to get into the "Christmas spirit" and the only real way you can achieve full-spirit is to beat the everloving shiat out of a few thousand morons in a mall. Maybe while I'm gone, we can get the Blizzard of 96 or somethin. Or something that doesn't just end in rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 I've got a Wheel of Fortune if anyone wants to borrow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I wish I could go back to the late 1970's when I was a teen-ager and I would listen to the forecast on the radio and then I would look out the window all day and see if the storm would start as rain, sleet or snow. I remember being out with my friends in the slop and then the excitement when it changed to snow at any time. I am sure it was more fun not knowing what a model was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Upcoming Winter Storm! GFS Ensembles Euro Ensembles GEM NAM Quite a bit of model consensus agreement in the storm track, with the outlier being the NAM currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS at least has a transfer this run, so it comes down to the the timing. If the Euro still shows something similar to last night I will actually feel confident in a more snowy outcome. <weenie> We are getting into the Euro's wheelhouse as they say, but they also say its only wrong when it shows snow for your back yard. lol </weenie> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS is a little better than last night, looks like a late bloomer secondary wise. Probably underestimating CAD some but still drives a pretty strong low into the Ohio Valley. Would likely be a snow to mix/rain and perhaps back to snow type deal. Hopefully Euro holds out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO WET-BULB TEMPS AT 925 AND 850 MB WILL DRIFT AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 80 AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...LIGHTER PRECIP RATES... AND TEMPS EDGING BACK BELOW THE FREEZING MARK WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SOME SLICK LANDING CONDITIONS FOR SANTA`S SLEIGH EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF ONLY 24-30 HOURS FROM LATER CHRISTMAS MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE MISS VALLEY. OPERATIONAL U.S. AND EURO MODEL RUNS /AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES/ WAVERED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PROJECTED STORM TRACK ON THEIR 22/12Z AND 18Z RUNS...BUT HAVE TRENDED BACK TOWARD TO THE EAST AGAIN WITH THE MEAN SFC LOW TRACK AND LIKELIHOOD OF A MILLER-B TYPE EVENT AS A WEAKENING OHIO VALLEY LOW EXPERIENCES A TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET /ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH/ AIMS AT THE VA/MID ATLANTIC COAST. INTRODUCED SOME LAYER-CAKE PRECIP TYPES /FROM NW TO SE/ FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT PERIOD AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A RATHER NARROW LAYER OF NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING AIR TO SURGE NWD INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL AND SRN PENN AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW COULD KEEP THE PRECIP MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF KAOO...KUNV AND KBGM FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM. A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...WHILE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET IMPACT THE SUSQ VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS. AS A RESULT OF THE PLUS 3-4 SIGMA SERLY 850 MB JET AND 1-2 SIGMA PWATS ACCOMPANYING THIS STORM...LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.75-1.00 RANGE ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES...AND 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY /ABOUT 20 PERCENT/ FOR STORM TOTAL PRECIP OF 2 INCHES IN OUR FAR SERN ZONES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE 6-9 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...SEVERAL INCHES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND ANYWHERE FROM 1-6 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SWRN POCONOS . COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM THU AND FRI WITH CENTRAL AND SERN PENN FLURRIES AND SCTD SNOW SHOWERS...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW AND LES IMPACTING THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. ANOTHER WEAKER STORM PROGGED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 HPC Clusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS missing the transfer is not a new GFS feature, remember. Wasn't the 09-10 wintry full of GFS transfer nonsense 48-86 hours out? It also makes not much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Canadian precip type loop for both events. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12Z run def looks a little better for a snowier solution. I think at best what will happen is something along these lines. Strong HP to the north gets the CAD rolling early and starts thing off as snow/mix even if the main LP doesn't spawn a secondary near the coast. EVEN if the primary LP doesn't produce a secondary, I think this storm is going to cause a lot of problems in the icing department. Whether that means a more prominant sleet storm vs ZR is way to early to be determined however. My guess right now if I had to make a forecast would be something very similar to what is progged on the 12Z run this afternoon with the GFS. I still think this storm tries to cut a little bit towards the Ohio Valley, BUT I do believe that with stronger blocking this go around, it should cause an earlier transfer of energy a little earlier than most cutters. I'm thinking snow totals at current thinking will range from 4-8" with the totals being held down by the influx of WAA at the height of the storm. Depending on how quick the transfer happens, I could see totals being 6-12" if the transfer happens quicker. I feel alot more confident in the north central mnts acheiving this forecast than other areas in PA. I will have a map out explaining more later haha bored at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro text output just getting to the big storm.. will have an idea on things shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro text output just getting to the big storm.. will have an idea on things shortly. Looks like a nailbiter for here like the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 its west tracks through pa and ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro text output just getting to the big storm.. will have an idea on things shortly. Looks a tad warmer, cutting righ over PHL it appears. Looking forward to your thoughts.Us here around MDT might see a sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like a nailbiter for here like the Canadian. Yea UNV just barely stays below zero at 850. Total QPF for central looks about the same.. a litte over an inch. QPF more towards 1.5" or so in the east. Altoona, Williamsport, and Scranton/WB see a good snowfall before what looks like a significant mix. MDT a little snow before alot of rain most likely and mostly rain for York/Lancaster. 2001kx looks like the C-PA winner this run, with KFIG looking to stay all snow without too much drama. The Pittsburgh gang does pretty well, with PIT seeing 0.73" before 850s top out right at 0... and then getting a few more tenths after they start dropping. Basically looks like mainly snow, perhaps a brief period of mixing and then back to snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 2 to 4 for ipt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Sounds like 3-6 before things get icy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 During and after the storm can we expect wind similar to what we experienced yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yea UNV just barely stays below zero at 850. Total QPF for central looks about the same.. a litte over an inch. QPF more towards 1.5" or so in the east. Altoona, Williamsport, and Scranton/WB see a good snowfall before what looks like a significant mix. MDT a little snow before alot of rain most likely and mostly rain for York/Lancaster. 2001kx looks like the C-PA winner this run, with KFIG looking to stay all snow without too much drama. The Pittsburgh gang does pretty well, with PIT seeing 0.73" before 850s top out right at 0... and then getting a few more tenths after they start dropping. Basically looks like mainly snow, perhaps a brief period of mixing and then back to snow there. Thanks. THe thing that I have noticed is that the 850 line is always under modeled in our area as to how far north it pushes. I remember plenty of times that all models were showing no change over, or a short changeover, and then KPIT saw hours of sleet and freezing rain. If the 0 line is right on us, I would expect some extended icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 2 to 4 for ipt? Probably twice that much, at least. About 0.9" QPF as snow before the 6 hour frame that shows possible mixing, and you only top out at 0.3ºC at 850 in that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Probably twice that much, at least. About 0.9" QPF as snow before the 6 hour frame that shows possible mixing, and you only top out at 0.3ºC at 850 in that frame. So you would say 8-12 for KPIT, verbatim I am guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yea UNV just barely stays below zero at 850. Total QPF for central looks about the same.. a litte over an inch. QPF more towards 1.5" or so in the east. Altoona, Williamsport, and Scranton/WB see a good snowfall before what looks like a significant mix. MDT a little snow before alot of rain most likely and mostly rain for York/Lancaster. 2001kx looks like the C-PA winner this run, with KFIG looking to stay all snow without too much drama. The Pittsburgh gang does pretty well, with PIT seeing 0.73" before 850s top out right at 0... and then getting a few more tenths after they start dropping. Basically looks like mainly snow, perhaps a brief period of mixing and then back to snow there. well then we know that solution is wrong thanks for the info.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So you would say 8-12 for KPIT, verbatim I am guessing? Yea somethin like that. I should see the full Euro here in a few minutes. On your other point about the 850 line, yea I would be a bit leery with the setup. Those Ohio Valley lows do like to find a way to get mixing or even rain up into Pittsburgh if you don't have an early enough transfer to a secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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