December 26th - 27th Winter Storm

[Harry]

so i'm showing a 996 (or 986 can't tell) low over central VA at 96 hrs.... exactly how far north does the primary get?

Eastern KY by the looks of it at 90hrs..

[snowstormcanuck]

A touch of but with the trough already going neg tilt at 72 and the models tending to dampen out primaries too quickly, I'm not totally buying into a dominant sfc low over VA at 96.

On the other hand, if that indeed happens to be the actually track, I can't see >0.75" QPF here at YYZ. Maybe March 4-5, 2001 comes close to being an analogue. But it's very rare coastal huggers throw that much juice this far west of the mountains.

[Chicago Storm]

0z ECMWF Text List

STL:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.7 -3.4 1015 69 65 0.01 546 534
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.5 -5.6 1018 64 18 0.01 547 533

PAH:

WED 00Z 26-DEC 4.0 0.8 1011 71 83 0.02 554 544
WED 06Z 26-DEC 1.2 0.7 1004 96 99 0.57 547 544
WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.0 -5.1 1005 88 95 0.38 541 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.4 -6.5 1013 80 84 0.14 545 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.5 -6.6 1018 77 21 0.01 550 535 

DEC:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.2 -4.6 1014 70 68 0.01 545 534
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.6 -5.3 1015 66 80 0.05 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.7 -6.7 1019 68 11 0.01 547 532

VPZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -5.0 1016 71 94 0.03 544 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.5 -6.2 1017 76 94 0.06 545 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.9 -5.2 1018 74 64 0.01 548 533

LAF:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.0 -2.9 1012 79 82 0.03 547 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.9 -4.3 1012 85 98 0.23 543 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -6.8 1016 83 81 0.09 545 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.5 -6.3 1018 83 38 0.01 549 535 

IND:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.2 -1.5 1008 85 100 0.28 546 539
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -6.8 1009 89 99 0.28 542 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.0 -8.2 1013 83 77 0.09 543 533

BMG:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 1.1 -0.7 1014 73 70 0.01 551 540
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -1.5 1006 86 100 0.43 544 539
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -6.1 1007 85 97 0.26 541 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -8.2 1014 83 72 0.07 544 533

OKK:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.7 -2.4 1011 81 85 0.06 548 539
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -6.4 1011 83 99 0.20 543 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.2 -8.2 1014 81 84 0.08 543 532

FWA:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -3.7 1015 78 86 0.03 548 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -7.0 1011 82 98 0.20 544 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.4 1013 82 93 0.15 543 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.5 -8.4 1015 82 63 0.02 545 533 

GRR:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -4.8 1018 75 99 0.04 544 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.1 -4.8 1019 73 97 0.01 545 530

BTL:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -5.7 1016 70 93 0.02 545 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.7 -6.7 1016 81 97 0.11 544 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.2 -5.8 1017 81 83 0.03 545 531

MOP:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.5 -5.5 1019 79 94 0.02 544 529
THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.1 -4.8 1019 82 98 0.02 544 529

PTK:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.1 -5.3 1017 70 91 0.02 546 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.5 -6.8 1015 85 98 0.23 543 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.4 -7.8 1014 87 91 0.17 543 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.2 -6.7 1017 86 69 0.02 544 531

DTW:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.7 -4.9 1015 76 100 0.09 546 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.1 -7.6 1013 85 97 0.31 542 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.1 -8.5 1013 86 90 0.14 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.6 -6.9 1016 85 62 0.02 545 532

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.3 -4.9 1015 73 99 0.07 546 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.1 -7.3 1013 85 99 0.35 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.9 -8.5 1013 86 94 0.16 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.4 -7.1 1016 86 66 0.03 544 532

TDZ:

WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.5 -4.2 1018 72 68 0.01 550 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.0 -5.7 1011 85 98 0.26 546 537
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.4 -8.5 1011 87 96 0.37 542 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.2 -8.6 1013 87 90 0.10 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.5 1016 85 56 0.02 546 533

DAY:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.2 -0.9 1010 89 99 0.32 549 541
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.3 1004 89 84 0.39 543 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -5.4 1006 91 95 0.11 541 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.8 -8.3 1013 88 75 0.02 544 534
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.5 -8.9 1018 88 43 0.01 550 536

HAO:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 1.3 -0.8 1016 77 64 0.01 554 541
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.2 -1.2 1008 90 98 0.49 548 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.0 -1.6 1002 88 61 0.25 542 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.0 -5.5 1007 89 98 0.12 541 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.0 -8.4 1014 83 69 0.03 545 534

CMH:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.2 -0.4 1011 89 100 0.36 551 543
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.2 -1.5 1004 88 42 0.49 544 541
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.6 -3.2 1004 89 99 0.11 541 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.9 -7.1 1008 91 82 0.04 543 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.3 -8.5 1016 88 68 0.01 547 535
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.4 -6.1 1020 79 20 0.01 552 536

CLE:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -2.8 -2.2 1018 79 74 0.01 552 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -3.4 1011 87 100 0.35 548 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.7 -6.4 1007 88 99 0.43 542 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.3 -7.3 1008 86 96 0.11 541 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.4 -8.8 1013 84 69 0.05 543 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.8 -7.5 1018 80 52 0.02 548 534
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.6 -5.8 1021 82 16 0.01 552 535
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -3.7 -3.5 1023 85 7 0.01 553 536

YKF:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.9 -5.6 1016 65 100 0.10 546 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -7.3 -6.7 1013 84 100 0.37 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.8 -8.8 1014 82 91 0.16 541 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.5 -8.1 1016 74 76 0.03 542 529

YYZ:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.3 -5.9 1018 69 98 0.05 547 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.9 -6.5 1014 86 98 0.40 542 531
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.6 -8.8 1014 85 94 0.26 541 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.8 -9.0 1015 78 84 0.03 541 529
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -5.7 -7.1 1019 84 64 0.01 543 529

[buckeye]

http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Wunderground always helps

hey thanks...

so it looks like it gets to charleston WV at it's closest and the 850 0 line crosses into southern OH briefly...hard to tell

I'll take it

[KokomoWX]

Those QPF numbers are not what I would like to see.

[snowstormcanuck]

http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Wunderground always helps

Out quickly. Just seems to be a nice CCB associated with the H5/7 low. Meh, I guess it's possible but obviously I'd like the sfc low to get further north

[kab2791]

Actually kind of surprised with the totals for DET/DTW with that track, I wasn't expecting such decent amounts. Hopefully this is the worst track possible (and thus most confluence possible). Still, Aside for a couple Euro runs of more significant amounts, the Euro has been consistent with a 4"+ event for Detroit.

[snowstormcanuck]

If this doesn't work out, looks like another shot at some fun on the 29th-30th.

[Chicago WX]

Those QPF numbers are not what I would like to see.

1-3" for me, 2-4" for you may be a better bet right now. Let's hope it doesn't trend even farther east, though I don't like our chances...

[BowMeHunter]

Ofcourse this would be the time the blocking works out. Oh well.

I have had concern about the blocking but the hope was the models are too fast/strong with it again. They could still be but yeah hope is fading fast.

My fault for looking so far out in fantasy land and thinking to much blocking wouldn't be a problem.

what have we had now... 5 misses to the west since thanksgiving.. and now we go the other direction for at least a couple.. You win some but lose a lot more.. The heartaches of snow weenies and gamblers.

At least it hasn't been dry I'm closing in on 4" of rain for the month.. Rivals June and July combined.

[dmc76]

Actually kind of surprised with the totals for DET/DTW with that track, I wasn't expecting such decent amounts. Hopefully this is the worst track possible (and thus most confluence possible). Still, Aside for a couple Euro runs of more significant amounts, the Euro has been consistent with a 4"+ event for Detroit.

3-5" south of 94. 2-3" north of it. Is the way I see it right now. I wonder if the ratios will be higher

[Minnesota Meso]

How does the EURO look for Southern/South Central indiana?

looks like the Euro wants to start out with rain changing to snow for the 26-27th system, however it brings a dozy into your area on the 29-30th which I thought was a good possibility last night looking at it's telleconections , ie: -EPO, a strong west based -NAO ( centered over eastern Canada,) and a likely positive PNA, it all depends where the eastern ridge sets up as to the final track. And it has good support from the FIM model as well.

[snowlord81]

1-3" for me, 2-4" for you may be a better bet right now. Let's hope it doesn't trend even farther east, though I don't like our chances...

I like where we are right now because earlier it looked like things may trend towards Chitown. With this small SE trend, were ripe for a last second jog NW in a day or 2 which would put us in the bullseye. Maybe Im to optimistic but I like our chances. And the winds look respectable, possibly gusting to 45mph on all the models so what may fall wil blow around. I plan to be under a winter storm watch by monday pm. lol Wish me luck.

[BowMeHunter]

If this doesn't work out, looks like another shot at some fun on the 29th-30th.

lol.. we are two peas in a pod.. Shame on me for getting excited for the next baby (this storm) down the road before the first abortion even started.

[Ji]

Euro gives Columbus 10 inches

[Harry]

My fault for looking so far out in fantasy land and thinking to much blocking would be a problem.

what have we had now... 5 misses to the west since thanksgiving.. and now we go the other direction for at least a couple.. You win some but lose a lot more.. The heartaches of snow weenies and gamblers.

At least it hasn't been dry I'm closing in on 4" of rain for the month.. Rivals June and July combined.

Yes.. The rains are a very good thing and thus much needed. I hate droughts more then anything.

But yeah this is why i always tell people up this way to watch what they wish for when it concerns blocking. Blocking is never a good thing for snow lovers especially here where i am unless you get a 1,000yr event like Jan 78. lol

[The_Global_Warmer]

I am not trying to step on anyone's toes, but folks in East Central IL, LAF, STL to the SE. Don't give up on this yet.

[Chicago WX]

I like where we are right now because earlier it looked like things may trend towards Chitown. With this small SE trend, were ripe for a last second jog NW in a day or 2 which would put us in the bullseye. Maybe Im to optimistic but I like our chances. And the winds look respectable, possibly gusting to 45mph on all the models so what may fall wil blow around. I plan to be under a winter storm watch by monday pm. lol Wish me luck.

I hear you. Of course if the 0z Euro stayed the course, I'd probably be even more nervous/pessimistic (NW move, blah blah). But the consensus of the models is for a grazing for here...and it's hard to argue against that right now. I like your location much better than mine. Time will tell I guess.

[buckeye]

Yes.. The rains are a very good thing and thus much needed. I hate droughts more then anything.

But yeah this is why i always tell people up this way to watch what they wish for when it concerns blocking. Blocking is never a good thing for snow lovers especially here where i am unless you get a 1,000yr event like Jan 78. lol

wasn't it like 4 yrs ago that block from hell set up that pinwheeled every clipper and snow event around us.... Hoosier and the gang scored huge though

[Minnesota Meso]

The link to the FIM is below.....MPX has said in some of their AFD's that it has preformed fairly well.

http://fim.noaa.gov/... Dec 2010 - 00Z

Edit: its a bit warmer than the Euro, but overall idea is a match.

[Stebo]

A touch of but with the trough already going neg tilt at 72 and the models tending to dampen out primaries too quickly, I'm not totally buying into a dominant sfc low over VA at 96.

On the other hand, if that indeed happens to be the actually track, I can't see >0.75" QPF here at YYZ. Maybe March 4-5, 2001 comes close to being an analogue. But it's very rare coastal huggers throw that much juice this far west of the mountains.

I would agree with this completely, as hm8 quoted me earlier I think there are some convective feedback issues going on with respect to the low track. Not too surprising considering the prospects of severe weather down South that the model would have some convective issues.

[buckeye]

I am not trying to step on anyone's toes, but folks in East Central IL, LAF, STL to the SE. Don't give up on this yet.

I'd agree....tomorrow night's 00z will have this firmly in the euro 72 hr window, if it hold at that point, it's probably over....until then still likely it shifts in track or strength or both.

[buckeye]

The link to the FIM is below.....MPX has said in some of their AFD's that it has preformed fairly well.

http://fim.noaa.gov/... Dec 2010 - 00Z

Edit: its a bit warmer than the Euro, but overall idea is a match.

00z fim is almost identical to 00z euro

[nwohweather]

Euro gives Columbus 10 inches

No it does not. Look closely at the temp profiles, it's above freezing for .9" of that liquid

[PatrickSumner]

So let me get this straight...places like Bloomington, Seymour, and Louisville still get missed by the EURO snow wise?

[Harry]

wasn't it like 4 yrs ago that block from hell set up that pinwheeled every clipper and snow event around us.... Hoosier and the gang scored huge though

Ugh.. Good ole 2010-2011 i believe you are talking about? The winter of fringe events imby. Ofcourse GHD wasn't too bad imby but nothing like areas just to my west/nw got from it.

Could be 2009-2010 but this was not to shabby here. Ofcourse the lake saved the day in Dec with the Planes blizzard and then Feb was rocking here..

[Stebo]

No it does not. Look closely at the temp profiles, it's above freezing for .9" of that liquid

Don't pay attention to the useless trolls.

[snowlord81]

I hear you. Of course if the 0z Euro stayed the course, I'd probably be even more nervous/pessimistic (NW move, blah blah). But the consensus of the models is for a grazing for here...and it's hard to argue against that right now. I like your location much better than mine. Time will tell I guess.

I can recall so many events that trended NW and screwed me (and helped you) but I recall one storm in particular that actually helped me and that was late Jan 09 when Paducah got that huge ice storm. We were on the fringe for days and 48 hours before the NW trend set in and we ended up with 13 inches of snow. Of course this situation is different, but after getting slopfest so many times in the last 5 years I feel better with all the guidance SE this early in the game. Call me crazy though! Idk LOL

[Chicago WX]

So let me get this straight...places like Bloomington, Seymour, and Louisville still get missed by the EURO snow wise?

Bloomington gets 6"+.

[buckeye]

No it does not. Look closely at the temp profiles, it's above freezing for .9" of that liquid

I saw that earlier...which is a headscratcher considering the low only gets to charleston WV, I don't care what the text says, that's a classic snowstorm track for cmh.