SpartyOn Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 180-240hrs on the GFS 18z just froze my finger tips to my keyboard. Fairly decent set-up for some really chilly air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 CMC now on board with the Euro's big bomb on the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Do people still not understand you can't post images from pay sites lol Who did that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 gfs looks to have the stage set for a big one during this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 With good agreement on ridging towards Alaska supporting a falling EPO in the mid-range...a rising NAO and falling AO in the long range, things look set to get quite cold in the Plains in 6-7 days with potential for this cold to come east after mid-month with potential MJO help...forcing the PNA towards positive by around mid-month with a displaced PV over Canada...could get cooold In general think the op GFS is a bit too fast with this transition...we've had trouble getting good convection east of the dateline and don't want to try to rush things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 The closed low on the Euro moves slowly enough that the second, more powerful system almost catches it, and thus it kinda messes up the flow pattern in terms of getting the second one to amplify. The GFS strings the second system out SW to NE in the West (although some of its ensemble members go for the big one), and the GGEM still has the makings of a bigger storm it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 With good agreement on ridging towards Alaska supporting a falling EPO in the mid-range...a rising NAO and falling AO in the long range, things look set to get quite cold in the Plains in 6-7 days with potential for this cold to come east after mid-month with potential MJO help...forcing the PNA towards positive by around mid-month with a displaced PV over Canada...could get cooold MJO ecm-gfs.JPG In general think the op GFS is a bit too fast with this transition...we've had trouble getting good convection east of the dateline and don't want to try to rush things. If the MJO amplitude is weak and towards the circle, then I think the cold air will overwhelm the MJO influence. The blocking and PV displacement south should be enough to flip to cold by the end of next week. The SSW events are forecast to continually bombard the polar vortex at all levels of the stratosphere through the end of the month. Of course if the MJO is favorably in phases 8-2 then we will have a stronger signal for a frigid period of time coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 If the MJO amplitude is weak and towards the circle, then I think the cold air will overwhelm the MJO influence. The blocking and PV displacement south should be enough to flip to cold by the end of next week. The SSW events are forecast to continually bombard the polar vortex at all levels of the stratosphere through the end of the month. Of course if the MJO is favorably in phases 8-2 then we will have a stronger signal for a frigid period of time coming up. Yeah. I still like what I was thinking a couple days ago of cold dumping into the central US beginning late next week and moving east with time, likely slower than what the GFS is showing. Initially much of this subforum may still be warm but that should change. The MJO forecasts are more suggestive towards the 2 week timeframe of the pulse staying coherent and heading towards phase 8, which would really aim cold into the subforum, but is also very uncertain at this time. The Euro splits the stratospheric vortex at all levels within 4 days so that is looking quite likely, and is suggestive of a potential severely -AO developing after mid-month and really displacing the polar vortex southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 The 18z GFS does develop a strong D8 cutter but man if that all ejects as one piece and doesn't hang anything back.....would be even more impressive. Something to watch as we head into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 The 18z GFS does develop a strong D8 cutter but man if that all ejects as one piece and doesn't hang anything back.....would be even more impressive. Something to watch as we head into next week. That would be a blockbuster storm if it does eject in one piece, possibly both on the cold and warm sector sides. 18z GFS ensembles definitely have a few monsters between 168 and 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I'll extend my LRF over the weekend but everything has been panning out nicely and my forecast looks on track and I'll post a review of the forecast up to this weekend with verification.If these forecasts are close to being correct and we can pull the MJO through even just phase 6,7 at a decent amplitude we would have a decent shot for some shortwaves to produce some snow, which this table from Chicago Wx last year attests to phase 6/7 being able to produce for GLKS. Based off my strat/GWO forecast I think there should be plenty of cold air to work with to keep these all snow in the Jan 18-30 time frame if the MJO forecasts came to fruition. I'm a bit skeptical though...yesterday both had it stalling in 5/6 and COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Looks good to get to phase 7 per the op GFS. Looks like that would be about the 14th it would enter phase 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The NAEFS is nasty cold out west.... Can't imagine these neg anomalies don't move east with time.......:? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2013010412_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 DLL - The normal temperatures would be welcome in these parts while were waiting for the good stuff! The forecast is for those cold anomalies to shift east. B. Anderson doing the euro weeklies again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 That 1/14-1/20 pattern screams for one or more snowstorm(s) in the region, along with warm sector fireworks, especially in the SE/possibly north into the OH Valley. Clearly there is a potent baroclinic zone setting up there with potentially unseasonably strong moisture advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 CEOs, it sure beats a warmish rain washing away what snow is left like those to the east are likely to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 My forecast is still pretty tame compared to what the GFS and Euro show for surface temps.... I noticed that LOT really backed down on the 50's and certainly 60 in Chicago. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 That 1/14-1/20 pattern screams for one or more snowstorm(s) in the region, along with warm sector fireworks, especially in the SE/possibly north into the OH Valley. Clearly there is a potent baroclinic zone setting up there with potentially unseasonably strong moisture advection. No doubt. Pacific/Gulf air on the warm side, Arctic air on the cold side of the boundary. That will = a weather show down. This GFS 500mb map shows that same setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 00z GFS might go big with that second storm this time if the cut off ejects in time (sort of like the 12z Euro yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 00z GFS might go big with that second storm this time if the cut off ejects in time (sort of like the 12z Euro yesterday). Big time phase coming by the end of truncation, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I've been sick the last week so I haven't been following the models too closely but it seems the last few runs of the GFS have been slowly trending towards the EURO idea of keeping the W US trough more sluggish and thus delaying the arrival of any potential mid month cool/cold down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 00z GFS might go big with that second storm this time if the cut off ejects in time (sort of like the 12z Euro yesterday). Big time phase coming by the end of truncation, impressive. you beat me to it, fully phased and a bomb to boot, don't about bombogenisis (sp) in technical terms, but the results are impressive enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 lol, talk about increasing wavelength. We're not in July anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Holy crap by 204...monster blizzard for the Northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Wow, the fantasy land GFS now takes us into the latter half of Jan. This season is flying by it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Holy crap by 204...monster blizzard for the Northern Plains. Man is that winter weather porn at it's best, now if only it could verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Man is that winter weather porn at it's best, now if only it could verify Its kinda funny, in order for you to get a monster storm.... 90% of the subforum gets screwed. Not that I blame you, its just the way it is. This storm would even bring rain to the entire UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I've been sick the last week so I haven't been following the models too closely but it seems the last few runs of the GFS have been slowly trending towards the EURO idea of keeping the W US trough more sluggish and thus delaying the arrival of any potential mid month cool/cold down. That's my interpretation too. The 0z GFS is much warmer for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Holy crap by 204...monster blizzard for the Northern Plains. GFS with a Palm Sunday like 135 kt at 500 mb. Good thing it's not April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 GFS with a Palm Sunday like 135 kt at 500 mb. Good thing it's not April. Not sure the areas further SW would be so fortunate (like the Ozarks and eastern parts of the Southern Plains). Almost 100 kts at 700 mb at 204 hrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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