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December Mid-Long Range Discussion


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I'm guessing this look persists in the means for the next 6 weeks......-PNA/+EPO, weakly -NAO.....I'm glad I went warm.....

Me too, I wish I hadn't entertained the possibility that the -ao might start nudging us towards cold but at least I didn't say it would for sure. If I had to guess at week 3 I'd certainly keep the pattern going.

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Me too, I wish I hadn't entertained the possibility that the -ao might start nudging us towards cold but at least I didn't say it would for sure. If I had to guess at week 3 I'd certainly keep the pattern going.

These extrapolated ensemble means for end of December show a much better Atlantic and a still crappy PAC... I think with colder climo we could sneak in a small northern stream event or 2....

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These extrapolated ensemble means for end of December show a much better Atlantic and a still crappy PAC... I think with colder climo we could sneak in a small northern stream event or 2....

I saw that and think that is our hope. Get the noa farther west and have some 50 50 low or transient trof and we could sneak an event.

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Not based on anything by anectodal memories, but I've always kind of believed that Dec was a precursor to winter. Bad december = bad winter. I guess it somewhat verfies with the research Bob and Wes have done regarding the AO index: big departures in Dec statistically verify with Jan and Feb anomolies. This year it appears that we have competing harbingers. We look to have a rather negative AO which should then average in the negative range for the rest of the winter, yet even in this -AO regime we are having a super-craptastic pattern and resulting weather. For gosh's sake we have a couple of +20s on tap for this week alone. It'll be interesting to see how the winter unfolds. Forgive me if it's been previously posted, but has anyone looked -AO winters to see if any of them had a crappy Dec and if so, did they turn colder? 76-77 is famous for the cold January and negative AO, what was Dec 76 like?

That's interesting. My memories growing up were that if winter started in early Dec, the rest of the winter was crap. But a normal winter to my recollection growing up in South Jersey usually didn't start until the last week of Dec.

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Folks,

The NOAA Nov. 2012 averaged PDO was just released and was -0.60 vs. -1.13 in Oct. My eyeballing tells me that the NOAA # is currently probably a bit lower than that....say, ~-.75 to perhaps as low as ~-1.00.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

Based on the pattern when comparing these two tables, I expect the U of Washington # for Nov. to be higher than -0.60...maybe as high as ~-0.40.

I honestly expected a more negative # than -0.60. This may bode well for the winter if we could finally shake off the stubborn -PNA as -0.60 is a pretty modest -PDO, especially for the NOAA table.

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That's interesting. My memories growing up were that if winter started in early Dec, the rest of the winter was crap. But a normal winter to my recollection growing up in South Jersey usually didn't start until the last week of Dec.

I have the same memory growing up in Ocean County which is where the rain/snow line found a home at exit 82. Pretty bad when even the GFS out to 384 is bad.

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Folks,

The NOAA Nov. 2012 averaged PDO was just released and was -0.60 vs. -1.13 in Oct. My eyeballing tells me that the NOAA # is currently probably a bit lower than that....say, ~-.75 to perhaps as low as ~-1.00.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

Based on the pattern when comparing these two tables, I expect the U of Washington # for Nov. to be higher than -0.60...maybe as high as ~-0.40.

I honestly expected a more negative # than -0.60. This may bode well for the winter if we could finally shake off the stubborn -PNA as -0.60 is a pretty modest -PDO, especially for the NOAA table.

Larry....The PDO region looks awful (even if the index isn't super low) and the PAC in general looks terrible..

12/3/12 versus 12/2/02

anomnight.12.3.2012.gif

anomnight.12.2.2002.gif

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Euro weeklies are very bullish for a big -NAO...I'm surprised it keeps insisting on this. But we'll find out soon enough if its right. Basically the whole 2nd half of December it has a big -NAO right over Greenland and the Davis Straight.

Per orh

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Euro weeklies are very bullish for a big -NAO...I'm surprised it keeps insisting on this. But we'll find out soon enough if its right. Basically the whole 2nd half of December it has a big -NAO right over Greenland and the Davis Straight.

Per orh

I think there is a good deal of evidence pointing to a central/west based block....crappy pac versus good Atlantic....we can get snow from that setup...usuallly miller B's and snow to rain and clippers...

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not in the dailies

Matt,

Oops, yes, I obviously didn't realize you were talking daily instead of weekly. Indeed, I can see on the loop the new blue anomalies suddenly popping up in 3.4 the last three days. So, IF those maps are accurate, then it is now slightly negative. However, keep in mind that these are the same maps that showed that apparently "fake" major warming three weeks ago that lead to that infamous Nino fakeout (about which I've STILL not received an explanation from NOAA). This tells me to not put complete trust in that series of maps. Yes, the trend has been cooler and it could very well be negative right now as is suggested. I just think we need to validate it with other sources such as TAO. Don't you agree or at least see from where I'm coming?

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Matt,

Oops, yes, I obviously didn't realize you were talking daily instead of weekly. Indeed, I can see on the loop the new blue anomalies suddenly popping up in 3.4 the last three days. So, IF those maps are accurate, then it is now slightly negative. However, keep in mind that these are the same maps that showed that apparently "fake" major warming three weeks ago that lead to that infamous Nino fakeout (about which I've STILL not received an explanation from NOAA). This tells me to not put complete trust in that series of maps. Yes, the trend has been cooler and it could very well be negative right now as is suggested. I just think we need to validate it with other sources such as TAO. Don't you agree or at least see from where I'm coming?

I agree.....I wouldn't take SV maps or any daily readings too literally

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I wonder by what mechanism.

This is a loose connection at best but I think I can shed a little bit of light.

It has been correlated that waves in the upper troposphere/stratosphere at 60N are weakest when the -QBO combines with an active sun or an El Niño combines with an active sun.

Since it is more likely that in the modern data set winters will be considered "active sun" or "-QBO," you can see that it is an easier time to make a correlation out of nothing.

http://www.agu.org/p...0JD015226.shtml

It is not the -QBO's fault for the fast jet stream right now.

*Edit: Active sun is usually defined by flux being at or above 145 for a monthly mean I believe.

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He must be friends with JB, he always says delayed but not denied.

They should stare at the pattern in front of them over the next couple days because that is a pattern change. We are replacing a GOA low with a ridge and setting up a classic La Niña pattern, which we haven't seen in a while. Just ask the folks in the Midwest how things have been going...well I guess you Mid Atlantic guys understand.

If they are waiting for something to change again after something is in the process of changing now, it sounds like the beginnings of fail.

I wouldn't trust any -NAO predictions or cold forecasts for us through the end of the month. Things will turn around in January, however.

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They should stare at the pattern in front of them over the next couple days because that is a pattern change. We are replacing a GOA low with a ridge and setting up a classic La Niña pattern, which we haven't seen in a while. Just ask the folks in the Midwest how things have been going...well I guess you Mid Atlantic guys understand.

If they are waiting for something to change again after something is in the process of changing now, it sounds like the beginnings of fail.

I wouldn't trust any -NAO predictions or cold forecasts for us through the end of the month. Things will turn around in January, however.

Can we at least get temps to a respectable + 2 or so or are we staring at a +5 or greater December down here?

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Can we at least get temps to a respectable + 2 or so or are we staring at a +5 or greater December down here?

I suppose the end of the month could save the area from being an all out torch +5 type of December but I'll leave this question to the forecasters in your area who know better. I think that late December will start to see changes for the better but they won't be realized yet in our weather in time. But this whole period has been a big question mark for a month now.

It is always hard to time lags, inertia / persistence and development of new features. A great example is late Nov into early Dec this year where it was almost a home run but not quite. This is why i wasn't excited for the Mid Atlantic but it may even turn warmer than I had thought up North too mid-month.

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What a horrible December pattern setting up IF the GFS is right. Persistent southerly flow and basically no connection to cold. It's all to the west :( Hoping for a turn around. Really stinks to get a good NAO/AO but a horrible pacific. Goes to show you can't just go off one or the other.

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This is a loose connection at best but I think I can shed a little bit of light.

It has been correlated that waves in the upper troposphere/stratosphere at 60N are weakest when the -QBO combines with an active sun or an El Niño combines with an active sun.

Since it is more likely that in the modern data set winters will be considered "active sun" or "-QBO," you can see that it is an easier time to make a correlation out of nothing.

http://www.agu.org/p...0JD015226.shtml

It is not the -QBO's fault for the fast jet stream right now.

*Edit: Active sun is usually defined by flux being at or above 145 for a monthly mean I believe.

Then his reasoning is probably about as sound as it was when he called for a pattern change to colder weather last winter due to the stratospheric warming. Of course, despite my skepticism, he could end up being right as I don't have much confidence in my being able to see much past week 2 during any year except for those rare seasons like 2009-2010 when all the signs were pointing to a big winter. Take away the enso signal and making long range forecasts become much more of a crap shoot at least to me.

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Then his reasoning is probably about as sound as it was when he called for a pattern change to colder weather last winter due to the stratospheric warming. Of course, despite my skepticism, he could end up being right as I don't have much confidence in my being able to see much past week 2 during any year except for those rare seasons like 2009-2010 when all the signs were pointing to a big winter. Take away the enso signal and making long range forecasts become much more of a crap shoot at least to me.

Head over to the Philly subforum where Adam and I are talking about the 30mb temperatures. If anything, the -QBO has NOT been helping and the equatorial regions have been pretty warm since mid-November (like a +QBO).

Great information you've been posting by the way.

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I suppose the end of the month could save the area from being an all out torch +5 type of December but I'll leave this question to the forecasters in your area who know better. I think that late December will start to see changes for the better but they won't be realized yet in our weather in time. But this whole period has been a big question mark for a month now.

It is always hard to time lags, inertia / persistence and development of new features. A great example is late Nov into early Dec this year where it was almost a home run but not quite. This is why i wasn't excited for the Mid Atlantic but it may even turn warmer than I had thought up North too mid-month.

I was originally going to go +3, but I thought it was too ballsy for a seasonal outlook...Glad I went warm though..A lot of people will bust in DEC

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They should stare at the pattern in front of them over the next couple days because that is a pattern change. We are replacing a GOA low with a ridge and setting up a classic La Niña pattern, which we haven't seen in a while. Just ask the folks in the Midwest how things have been going...well I guess you Mid Atlantic guys understand.

If they are waiting for something to change again after something is in the process of changing now, it sounds like the beginnings of fail.

I wouldn't trust any -NAO predictions or cold forecasts for us through the end of the month. Things will turn around in January, however.

could continue...region 3.4 is in an epic freefall

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I was originally going to go +3, but I thought it was too ballsy for a seasonal outlook...Glad I went warm though..A lot of people will bust in DEC

Yeah I definitely liked your winter outlook and I'm also glad you went warm. Too early to worry about magnitude verification yet! :)

could continue...region 3.4 is in an epic freefall

We have begun a tropical shift away from IO forcing and a GLAAM spike and this should last through at least Christmas. From that point on, things may begin to reverse again but I still don't know how quickly. It could take a while to break this type of stable pattern.

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The pacific looks pretty horrid through the 06Z GEFS run. The Atlantic is meh, not terrible but not good enough to lower heights enough to keep storms going to our west. The GEFS also retorgrades the Pacific ridge far enough in the extended to bring back the rpns so there are no changes from my thinking yesterday with regards to DCs weather the through the 1st 16 days of Dec. The cold calls from Dec are going to crash and burn. The MJO remains in the tank and as HM has noted, the pattern looks more nina-ish at 500h than nino like.

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