Mr Torchey Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Congrats Kevin and Will, beautiful pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 A little over 60 hours before winter begins, its here no more woulda coulda shoulda, will this winter deliver I ask you our brave and talented METS? Give us your official forecasts, how much snow, how cold? ITs time to schite or get off the pot, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just a sickening weather pattern as far as the eye can see. Everything just keeps on getting pushed back further and further. Reminds me exactly of last winter. Even though the upper air pattern is different than last year it doesn't guarantee us to be colder and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Next two weeks look meh. I hate the fact we can't grab a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just a beautiful radar image of the IVT over the coast of Maine this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It's not that bad of a pattern folks. It's better than anything we had last year. Cut the whiny crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Maybe the CFS sees something the weeklies don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 It's not that bad of a pattern folks. It's better than anything we had last year. Cut the whiny crap It's pretty meh, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just a few days ago the Euro was advertising an impressive polar plunge this week, Friday will certainly be chilly but nothing like advertised originally. Looks like we just need to get through the next two weeks and hopefully things turn around as we head into the holidays, I feel good about a white Christmas this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It's pretty meh, man. until Dec 10. Then good. Ride HM ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 until Dec 10. Then good. Ride HM ideas Hmm...that's the date I told you when you were pimpin' the 5th..lol. Maybe we sneak something in before then, but the pattern is one that drives down cold into the west and heights rise in the east. We'll have to hope one of these cutters can usher in the cold and set us up for a SWFE. Otherwise, I'm not a big fan of what I see. The GEFS have been the most weenis-ish and even they are being pushed back. SWFE aren't seen well..so lets just hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Next two weeks look meh. I hate the fact we can't grab a -NAO. I think the La Niña-like gradient idea over a full blown torch is the way to lean although I admit this one is tough. LIke I said before, this is the first December in a while that wasn't clear cut. I don't mean to be so "just keep waiting for the -NAO" but the next -NAO tendency period comes as we move into January based on tropical and solar data. This may also link up with the ongiong stratospheric changes. .... but none of this saves early December haha. until Dec 10. Then good. Ride HM ideas lol... just keep things in perspective please. I was never and I'm still not forecasting anything major here but I do think threats will emerge in between warm shots mid-december. The dates, as usual, are guesswork and occasionally I get them right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Check out the total reversal of the GOA Low on the 6z GEFS. This reversal is around the 10th of December, which is a date that multiple mets have been honing on for the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just a beautiful radar image of the IVT over the coast of Maine this morning. A good bit of that is just flurries, at least here on the western end of the midcoast. Had a forecast of 1" - 2" for today, but Gray cut it back to .5". 27.5°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Check out the total reversal of the GOA Low on the 6z GEFS. This reversal is around the 10th of December, which is a date that multiple mets have been honing on for the past week. GEFS have been doing this for a week, but of course they change their tune as you get closer. A compromise GEFS/EC would be good here in SNE, so lets hope for sometime around or after the 10th...but I'm not holding my breath. The one good thing we have going up here, is that crappy lows coming in from the Ohio Valley are hard to see so far out, so I'm hoping we can pop something from the cold air in the wake of any cutter. The tropics show subtle signs of trying to emerge at the very end of their range, but MJO convection can be difficult to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 November has def been a great start to the cold season. I believe one we will never forget NYC -3.9 4.7 of snow Ewr -3.5 6.6 of snow Bdr -2.8 8.4 of snow Orh -0.8 7.8 of snow Bos -2.3 0.4 of snow Bdl -2.3 2.9 of snow Pvd -2.1 1.3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 November has def been a great start to the cold season. I believe one we will never forget NYC -3.9 4.7 of snow Ewr -3.5 6.6 of snow Bdr -2.8 8.4 of snow Orh -0.8 7.8 of snow Bos -2.3 0.4 of snow Bdl -2.3 2.9 of snow Pvd -2.1 1.3 inches Easily forgetable here, but I know it's different there. Best cold and dry November evah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 A good bit of that is just flurries, at least here on the western end of the midcoast. Had a forecast of 1" - 2" for today, but Gray cut it back to .5". 27.5°F You won't enjoy the next forecast update then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Maybe a little snow and mixed precip late Friday night and Saturday morning over where else....CT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Easily forgetable here, but I know it's different there. Best cold and dry November evah. Agree. Doubt this november will ever be topped down here. Atleast it was cold for you, warm nov and green grass make me puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Maybe a little snow and mixed precip late Friday night and Saturday morning over where else....CT! 1-3 inches with lollies to 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Maybe a little snow and mixed precip late Friday night and Saturday morning over where else....CT! don't worry...as the winter evolves and we get past this bad december...i think the tide will turn in our favor. a lot of orh to pvd pts east events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 You won't enjoy the next forecast update then... Can't say that I am surprised. Atmosphere seems dry, and coverage on radar is shrinking big time. Hopefully a cold front squall this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Question. Why has the GFS been so amped up lately in the longer range, compared to the Euro (looking at d7-10 time frame)? Sorry for the question, and thanks to anyone who replies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 CFS is a little torchy for the first week of december: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Easily forgetable here, but I know it's different there. Best cold and dry November evah. It wasn't epic here either. We had two snow events, but we average like 3" of snow in November anyway. It was cold and snowy for November standards though...just not epic compared to climo like down in parts of NJ or SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Is the CFS run off of GFS parameters at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 lame pattern through Dec 10. That gives Scooter time to become a Dad then he'll be home and up all hours of the night with BabyKev giving us weenies awesome analysis. no need to waste the cold/snow now !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 CFS is a little torchy for the first week of december: I just had a flashback to late last November. That map is pretty hideous. If I see a deep, persistent vortex start to appear near the GOA.... Not long ago the consensus seemed to be a pattern change in the first part of December to cold, relaxing towards Xmas, reloading in January. The pattern creep seems to be occurring. Hoping for the best such a shame to waste what was a cold November with a warm early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 wow mega torch coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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