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On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter


weathafella

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1618 is going to be a problem the next few days. The solar flux is back up today....

regions2.jpg

That damn sun--ruining a good winter spell. At least that may give me time to size the 20 trees I have lying out back.

Signs of a delayed approach to winter:

1) switched to my snows this morning

2) snowblower's getting repaired/tuned up on Monday

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Mostly sunny

51 degrees, gorgeous day allowing wood operations to continue. Nice haul of Red Oak yesterday and two loads of Beech today compliments of Hurricane Sandy.

The one's I'm working on now are about 45% cherry, 45% maple, 10% ash. I suppose I could have sold them off and bought firewood, but where's the fun (or exercise) in that?

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That damn sun--ruining a good winter spell. At least that may give me time to size the 20 trees I have lying out back.

Signs of a delayed approach to winter:

1) switched to my snows this morning

2) snowblower's getting repaired/tuned up on Monday

haha... this is its final chance before it goes into a quieter period late Nov/early Dec. I think even if it does reach Smax levels, it won't ruin the December potential. The vortex is already strong and very cold and the waves that are upwelling (wave 2) are already in play.

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The one's I'm working on now are about 45% cherry, 45% maple, 10% ash. I suppose I could have sold them off and bought firewood, but where's the fun (or exercise) in that?

I agree Mike! I love splitting the wood by hand, gives me something to do during Jan and Feb. I burned some cherry last night house smelled so good and when you walked outside. Hoping to find some Ash later today, so nice to split and almost immediately burn it!

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GFS looked a little better than the NAM for a few flurries on Sat afternoon...but that still needs a lot of improvement to get anything like squalls or even scattered moderate snow showers.

"Little" being the operative word on that post. But, like Scott says, a couple flakes are good for the holiday spirits. Long time between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year--lots of time for storminess (or frustrations!).

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In response to Will,

I thought he was thinking that and a post band or two, but it still looks rather unimpressive...at least right now. Maybe P-Town gets clipped with a SHSN.

Well front comes thru Fri nite as we had discussed. I'm talking post frontal with instability snow showers and squalls popping in the cold AirMass as arctic air pours in
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Well front comes thru Fri nite as we had discussed. I'm talking post frontal with instability snow showers and squalls popping in the cold AirMass as arctic air pours in

It looks like the type of day where you get streamers of CU coming in and maybe a flurry or two, but mostly meh. I suppose you never can rule out some rotting renegade streamer moving in.

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I've received those KI of 4 values in my email from work, so not nearly as strong as the last solar event anyways.

We'll see what this sunspot group can do between today and Friday. I don't think the stratosphere can get any colder in and around the vortex so I'm not too concerned about the proton flux from any flare. My biggest worry at this point would be if some how the solar activity aided in warming the Tropics and Subtropics and reduced the upward wave flux from Eurasia.

The stratopause levels are still exciting and there are definitely signs of a growing top-down signal from upwelling equator--> N.P. waves on the modeling. This is something we don't want to see get disturbed.

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I agree Mike! I love splitting the wood by hand, gives me something to do during Jan and Feb. I burned some cherry last night house smelled so good and when you walked outside. Hoping to find some Ash later today, so nice to split and almost immediately burn it!

With 20 trees with logs 18" in diameter, I'll stick to my splitter. But lifting and rolling those big logs is a good workout just the same. Shouldn't yours be covered in snow in January?? lol

You're burning that soon after cutting/splitting? I hope you clean your chimneys! I'll likely have to use some of this wood for winter 2013-14, but most will be going to the 2015-2016 supply.

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One thing that may be possibly, and the GFS hints at this...is a band of very light snow well ahead of the low in the deep south. The WAA aloft will occur way out ahead of the low and with the flow sort of creating weak frontogenesis at 700mb or so...it is possible. It's not a high probability since the airmass is dry, but I've seen it before.

post-33-0-73025400-1353514939_thumb.gif

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With 20 trees with logs 18" in diameter, I'll stick to my splitter. But lifting and rolling those big logs is a good workout just the same. Shouldn't yours be covered in snow in January?? lol

You're burning that soon after cutting/splitting? I hope you clean your chimneys! I'll likely have to use some of this wood for winter 2013-14, but most will be going to the 2015-2016 supply.

No! All this wood is for next year and the year after.

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GFS looks like some brief light snow to mix for the interior...then rain. Not a lot of qpf on the overrunning part though.

But noticably deeper trough and vortmax now deep into the south. Yesterday this looked like a relatively weak wave. Today it looks pretty potent. The recent trend is toward a much more significant east coast storm on the GFS. Mostly rain for now in terms of actual weather impact, but if the modeling continues the amplifying trend, it's going to have a tendency to redevelop a surface low further southeast after the initial Ohio Valley low weakens. That could turn things much more wintry, esp if there ends up being less ridging ahead of the trough.

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