SpartyOn Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Meh..breezy and wet. Open wave.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 lol CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 lol @ ytterbium still posting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy didn't even feel Jamaica! Winds strengthened to 85mph. Cone of uncertainty brushing the coast now. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not so fast recon heading back into sandy. It looks even stronger than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is the CRAS still run by North Korea? I'd love it to come west, about 40 inches of snow for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Plenty of spread on the 18z GEFS... take your pick. My personal choice is the bottom left corner: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Holy balls at the raw T#'s that sandy is putting out right now. Good luck Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Never heard of the CRAS model. It's now my new favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 FWIW, which is about zero, the DGEX is on board with the Euro/GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Recon just went through Sandy's eye and found what looks like about a 10 mb drop since the last fix eight hours ago and a peak flight level wind of 96 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Recon just went through Sandy's eye and found what looks like about a 10 mb drop since the last fix eight hours ago and a peak flight level wind of 96 kt. They should have named this thing Hurricane Marshawn Lynch. This thing is in BEAST mode!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Recon just went through Sandy's eye and found what looks like about a 10 mb drop since the last fix eight hours ago and a peak flight level wind of 96 kt. We've got a solid Cat. 2 then. Sandy will be crossing about 90 miles of land, probably won't phase it too much. 96kts = 105mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow at the development. Cuba gonna get blindsided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'll obviously sip the 18z GFS kool-aid. Brings snow into northern IL Halloween evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow at the development. Cuba gonna get blindsided Seems like most are going to get caught flat footed re: intensity (for Cuba at least). It's in an area with very high heat content so I guess it's not too shocking that it's managed to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We've got a solid Cat. 2 then. Sandy will be crossing about 90 miles of land, probably won't phase it too much. 96kts = 105mph I think you gotta take 80-90% of flight level winds to come up with an estimate for surface though I'm not totally sure. Though it's probably academic as the overall presentation seems to suggests it is not done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'll obviously sip the 18z GFS kool-aid. Brings snow into northern IL Halloween evening. Not just snow on Halloween. Snow on Halloween derived from the moisture of a tropical storm/hurricane. We had that back with Katrina in November 1999. It's almost surreal when you start thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not just snow on Halloween. Snow on Halloween derived from the moisture of a tropical storm/hurricane. We had that back with Katrina in November 1999. It's almost surreal when you start thinking about it. well this run was weird. The 12z GFS keeps Sandy as one big system as it swings around but the 18z GFS pushes into northeast out of the picture as a new sfc low develops under the nrn stream trof/ULL and moves back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I bet it's a high 2/low 3 on the next date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We've got a solid Cat. 2 then. Sandy will be crossing about 90 miles of land, probably won't phase it too much. 96kts = 105mph Which was Peak Flight Level winds @ 700mb. Top SFMR winds were 79kts (90mph) It's undergoing RI yes, but it's not a 95-100kt storm just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think you gotta take 80-90% of flight level winds to come up with an estimate for surface though I'm not totally sure. Though it's probably academic as the overall presentation seems to suggests it is not done. Which was Peak Flight Level winds @ 700mb. Top SFMR winds were 79kts (90mph) It's undergoing RI yes, but it's not a 95-100kt storm just yet. Yeah I just thought... that's probably flight level. That would be pretty cool to see snow on Halloween from the resulting ULL! Edit: Has there ever been snow in this region that was associated with left over tropical moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Did the CRAS really get posted in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy goes out to sea, but then hits Nova Scotia to New Brunswick, then into ME! - extra tropical at that point no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like the GFS refuses to bring Sandy to the party, instead, has its eyes on one of her cousins. What a cad. I gotta hand it to the GFS. It literally picked the best case possibility(or for the weather weenie, the worst case). Scattered sprinkles/flurries for me on Tuesday night- :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 0z GFS hinting at some possible LES in northeast IL/northwest IN monday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy goes out to sea, but then hits Nova Scotia to New Brunswick, then into ME! - extra tropical at that point no doubt. Would end up having a major impact on Oceanstwx if some of these runs pan out. He used to be a QC met and now lives in Portland ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 0z GFS hinting at some possible LES in northeast IL/northwest IN monday morning.. Probably a mix in most areas just like the wraparound precip indicated Tuesday night into Wednesday in the Great Lakes region. That said, it looks decent, showing nearly a tenth of an inch of precip, and models tend to be unable to capture the magnitude of lake effect events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Borderline cat 3 right now. Based on the look of the 00z GEFS mean, there are probably still a few members that are pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NOGAPS at 96 hours brings Sandy into the Delmarva. ...Then it backs the low into Ohio and it sits over Cleveland for awhile! Snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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