Cheeznado Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GGEM has shifted way east, looks like the GFS. Not a good sign for the phase...... EDIT: but the GFS ensembles looks a lot better with quite a few members deeper with the trough in the central/east. So it is now on to the Euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I've been right where you are! Beautiful place isn't it! Did you meet the Unbelievable guy? On your travel matter... If at all possible try and call daily or once every two days to your Airline and get a status update. The Airport at Provo does not have the facilities to keep airliners there for more than overnight. Most likely there are going to have to take the planes out and bring them back in after the storm. I see by your avatar info box that you live in NJ. I'm guessing you flew American from JFK or the other airline (which escapes me) from Newark. If that's the case then if Sandy decides to visit the east coast your stuck, because all your planes and crews are grounded. If you flew American, consider asking the airline to put you on the flight to Miami on Saturday, at least that will get you back in the US. If all else fails consider just flying Air Canada to Toronto, you have your passport. Try airline codeshares, and talk with your airline about your options. Going back and forth to the airport is going to be very very pricy depending where on this island you are. So save a trip to the airport whenever possible. Otherwise, buckle down and have fun! It is beautifull even in this weather. Guess its not going to be much fun once the storm starts cranking up. As of right now I think we are going to stay put and hope everything works out on Saturday they can fly around the storm if they have to. Sounds like this is going to be a great story of a honeymoon! I hope the winds don't get to crazy and they keep the lights on. Going to go enjoy what we can of this wil post updates when we are stuck in our room because of the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The Mean of the GFS does exaclty what the European did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Only 4 of the members actually capture Sandy wholesale, another 4-5 develop a secondary near that spot, the rest are solidly OTS with a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12Z Euro, 950ish low moving NW into southern New England/Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12Z Euro, 950ish low moving NW into southern New England/Long Island. 936mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 936mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That wikipedia image looks familiar. =) Looking nice, Curved Band y-t3 on this picture: The Original Dvorak technique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Looks like HPC went ECMWF/ECMWF mean again today. This is an eastward shift in their guidance since yesterday morning due to trends seen in the ECMWF over that time period. NHC's track has been subtly shifting left with the GFS guidance, as should be expected since half of their guidance is GFS-based, so NHC's and HPC's ideas concerning Sandy are converging. Convergence in the deterministic guidance upon a common solution appears to have begun. Let's see how long it takes the strong deterministic guidance to give us a more realistic center pressure, somewhere in the neighborhood of the 960s, as it passes near/by/through New England. My guess is that it will take another couple days. Sounds about right in the middle of Noreaster27's its definitly going way out to sea and some of the doom mega low talk in the NE subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Considering it's raining in the Catskills and snowing in Harrisburg on the Euro, it's a pretty awesome solution November 1950 FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just imagine if the November 1950 storm merged with a tropical cyclone.... November 1950 FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just imagine if the November 1950 storm merged with a tropical cyclone.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Hurricane_of_1804 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A much more recent snowy former Hurricane for Maine... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Noel http://en.wikipedia....rricane_of_1804 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro Ens mean southern New England hit, but the 500MB mean low is actually a bit west of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 77.6W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE BAHAMAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 There is a hurricane warning for Jamaica per the NHC's latest Public Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 NHC cone keeps edging closer and closer towards the SE coast of FL. Nassau, Bahamas was near the westernmost edge of the cone per advisory 1 yesterday. Now they're only a few miles west of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No inner-core. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I noticed a shift west in the cone in the first 24-48 hrs, then bombing even farther east afterwards, despite the fact it's moving NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No inner-core. Meh Diurnal min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro Ens mean southern New England hit, but the 500MB mean low is actually a bit west of the op. Not suprising, the troff is to the west, hence a lower mean height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Diurnal min. What does that have to do with the price of beans? Even with all the convection it had earlier today, it still looks like it couldn't do anything internally. Additionally, established tropical cyclones don't usually tend to feel the max and min as much as a disturbance would. Recon will be in shortly. I have a feeling that the FL and surface centers still may be displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The LLC looks to be a bit (one-tenth of a degree) W of the NHC track as of 00Z...my original analysis and 50-kt peak-intensity forecast in the Caribbean looks good due to strong, increasing shear displacing the mid- and low-level centers from each other. Even if the wind field expands, most of the winds west of the center will be gradient- rather than TC-related over the next three days. Given the likelihood that most convection will be east of the center within this time frame, FL should avoid sustained TS winds and the Bahamian impact may be less than expected. I certainly think a hurricane seems unlikely in Jamaica or Cuba. Due to the weaker intensity, the track may bend one- or two-tenths of a degree west of the official path over the next 48 hours. Edit: Reconnaissance data are reporting 46° winds near 16.0N 78.2W...suggesting a center maybe as far as two-tenths west of the NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 microwave looks impressive though... no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 microwave looks impressive though... no? The appearance is superficial...the strong convection is related to net surface flux that is occurring east of the center in the upward movement and vorticity provided by a jet maximum...while low-level dry air (stratocumuli) and mid-tropospheric shear are displacing the LLC to the west of the well-defined MLC that you see in the image. Furthermore, the overall structure of the storm is still tilted and is increasingly developing a comma-like convective pattern east of the LLC along a SSW-NNE axis. This shape is indicative of increasing vertical wind shear and does not indicate a rapidly intensifying system...more likely, it indicates stability or weakening, or the beginning of a transition (due to lower 700-mb relative humidity being transferred into the core via advection from the NW) beginning in the next 12 hours. Note the sharp edge on the N and W sides of the convection that currently comprises the MLC. Due to the structural changes, Sandy might take on a hybrid-type structure or characteristics within 24 hours after leaving Jamaica, though it will likely retain a warm core for a few additional days thereafter. I think ET transition might occur 12+ hours earlier than shown by the NHC at the end of the five-day track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The appearance is superficial...the strong convection is related to net surface flux that is occurring east of the center in the upward movement and vorticity provided by a jet maximum...while low-level dry air (stratocumuli) and mid-tropospheric shear are displacing the LLC to the west of the well-defined MLC that you see in the image. 991.2 mb EXTRAP in about the location of the well-defined MLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 First fix is around 991mbs EDIT: Down to 990 actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 are the centers still displaced (por favor)? per recon you know " the curse of this years tropical systems" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 are the centers still displaced (por favor)? per recon you know " the curse of this years tropical systems" Two observations from this Atlantic tropical season: 1.) Tropical systems never strengthened as quickly as progged. 2.) Tropical systems have moved further west with respect to landfall with successive model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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