DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cool tool http://google.org/crisismap/sandy-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Not going to see this probably written by NHC for quite a while in their advisories... BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... ...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER. The first snowfall forecast in NHC history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sidenote... I just sent an email to the NHC regarding the current warning structure.... not that I actually expect it to be read at the moment, especially considering the massive volume of emails they must be receiving... but I feel so strongly about how poor of a decision it is for NHC to ignore putting out Hurricane Watches/Warnings for the coast, that I just had to do something. I urge other meteorologists to also contact them if they feel similarly. Hopefully a large amount of emails sharing our opinion can change their decision. Here is a text of my email: Protocol over Public Safety?Good afternoon, I am a degreed meteorologist that is extremely interested in public education and safety in the face of natural disasters... and I feel I must comment on the current situation with respect to public warnings in association with Hurricane Sandy. I think it is a tremendous failure of duty that the NHC is not issuing Hurricane Warnings for the area most likely to be impacted by the worst of Sandy. What does the public pay attention to more... Hurricane Warnings or Gale/Coastal Flood/High Wind Warnings? The fact is that Sandy could easily be warm core at landfall in the most populated area along the US coast... with no Hurricane Warnings out. Even if it did become post-tropical before landfall, there would still be hurricane-force winds and tremendous storm surge... and you should be allowed to have some flexibility in keeping up Hurricane Warnings due to the threat that exists and due to the fact that there would very likely not be much time between extratropical transition and landfall. I suppose this exposes a large flaw in the current watch/warning structure. The fact of the matter is that in the public eye, the current warnings being put out does not have the weight in their eyes as a Hurricane Warning. I only hope that no one is more adversely impacted than necessary due to the lack of Hurricane Warnings on the coast, as well as the confusion caused by NHC tweets and public advisory comments. I also hope this doesn't cause a breach of trust between the public and our amazing group of public meteorologists in this country. I would urge you not only to review and rethink your decision on this point, but in the aftermath of the event, hold a review that determines if the current course of action was the proper one. Thank you very much, and good luck with continuing to forecast and warn on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Impressive large band of 55-60 kt SFMR winds and 65-75 kt FL winds about 125 miles west of the eye. This is going to be a truly impressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sidenote... I just sent an email to the NHC regarding the current warning structure.... not that I actually expect it to be read at the moment, especially considering the massive volume of emails they must be receiving... but I feel so strongly about how poor of a decision it is for NHC to ignore putting out Hurricane Watches/Warnings for the coast, that I just had to do something. I urge other meteorologists to also contact them if they feel similarly. Hopefully a large amount of emails sharing our opinion can change their decision. Here is a text of my email: [/size][/font] I think NHC made a call too early that Sandy would go PT, and now it's too late to reverse their decision. I agree it's very odd to see their outlook maps with Sandy still a hurricane just before landfall in the most populated region of the US and there are no tropical warnings anywhere in its path. My feeling is that they regret this decision, and likely will take a different strategy the next time a similar situation develops. That being said, I think the WFOs are doing a good job ramping up their warnings to highlight the seriousness of this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 4 feet of surge in the mouth of Chesapeake Bay and the Virginia part of the Delmarva peninsula on the Atlantic side. 3 ft of surge in Delaware Bay. Impressive considering Sandy is nowhere near land, 275 miles from the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Peak wind gusts of 50-60 mph at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think NHC made a call too early that Sandy would go PT, and now it's too late to reverse their decision. I agree it's very odd to see their outlook maps with Sandy still a hurricane just before landfall in the most populated region of the US and there are no tropical warnings anywhere in its path. My feeling is that they regret this decision, and likely will take a different strategy the next time a similar situation develops. That being said, I think the WFOs are doing a good job ramping up their warnings to highlight the seriousness of this storm... Like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sidenote... I just sent an email to the NHC regarding the current warning structure.... not that I actually expect it to be read at the moment, especially considering the massive volume of emails they must be receiving... but I feel so strongly about how poor of a decision it is for NHC to ignore putting out Hurricane Watches/Warnings for the coast, that I just had to do something. I urge other meteorologists to also contact them if they feel similarly. Hopefully a large amount of emails sharing our opinion can change their decision. Here is a text of my email: [/size][/font] I think we should all use our social media to try to let people know this has the potential to be the most serious situation they have ever been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 18Z 850 mb observations 18Z 500 mb observations 18Z 300 mb observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sidenote... I just sent an email to the NHC regarding the current warning structure.... not that I actually expect it to be read at the moment, especially considering the massive volume of emails they must be receiving... but I feel so strongly about how poor of a decision it is for NHC to ignore putting out Hurricane Watches/Warnings for the coast, that I just had to do something. I urge other meteorologists to also contact them if they feel similarly. Hopefully a large amount of emails sharing our opinion can change their decision. Here is a text of my email: [/size][/font] It's strange that they kept this as a tropical cyclone all this time but are still planning on declaring it extra-tropical by landfall. I'm pretty sure Sandy is only going to become more tropical as it approaches landfall since the core is protected now.... but low level baroclinicity is increasing in the outer vortex so this isn't a clear cut situation. Essentially we're going to have a tropical cyclone embedded inside of a mid-latitude cyclone. Could be a major backfire for the NHC if they don't issue hurricane warnings and Sandy comes ashore with a well-defined eye, which I think is more likely than not. This is a very tricky situation and I don't blame them either way, people gotta get over not listening to NWS advisories vs. listening to hurricane advisories. Impacts are impacts regardless of the exact thermodynamic structure of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I think we should all use our social media to try to let people know this has the potential to be the most serious situation they have ever been in. Most of the folks I know are just laughing at how serious I believe the situation to be. What can you do with that kind of attitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sidenote... I just sent an email to the NHC regarding the current warning structure.... not that I actually expect it to be read at the moment, especially considering the massive volume of emails they must be receiving... but I feel so strongly about how poor of a decision it is for NHC to ignore putting out Hurricane Watches/Warnings for the coast, that I just had to do something. I urge other meteorologists to also contact them if they feel similarly. Hopefully a large amount of emails sharing our opinion can change their decision. Here is a text of my email: [/size][/font] I wonder how much financial considerations weighed on this decision. There is a big difference as far as insurance with a tropical system as compared to a noreaster. Where do you stop the damage from one and start the other? Again I am not sure this was a deciding factor at all. Might have been a lot of potential law suits by and against insurance carriers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Most of the folks I know are just laughing at how serious I believe the situation to be. What can you do with that kind of attitude? This isn't surprising considering how badly the media has cried wolf with every storm, but I think this is the real deal and people need to listen to what the National Weather Service is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well I got a response to my email just linking me to this: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf My point was missed, apparently. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like an eye to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dropsonde from NOAA mission just measured 66 kt at the surface 185 nmi west of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I wonder how much financial considerations weighed on this decision. There is a big difference as far as insurance with a tropical system as compared to a noreaster. Where do you stop the damage from one and start the other? Again I am not sure this was a deciding factor at all. Might have been a lot of potential law suits by and against insurance carriers though. And here's more of a train wreck - what if it is officially extratropical at landfall but gets changed to tropical in post-season analysis? Tens of thousands of lawyers would be employed for years. Not to mention that the insurance policy language seems to say "named storm" - but their intent seems to be to use "extratropical storm Sandy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Dropsonde from NOAA mission just measured 66 kt at the surface 185 nmi west of the eye. Jesus. Hurricane force winds nearly 200mi from the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It's strange that they kept this as a tropical cyclone all this time but are still planning on declaring it extra-tropical by landfall. I'm pretty sure Sandy is only going to become more tropical as it approaches landfall since the core is protected now.... but low level baroclinicity is increasing in the outer vortex so this isn't a clear cut situation. Essentially we're going to have a tropical cyclone embedded inside of a mid-latitude cyclone. Could be a major backfire for the NHC if they don't issue hurricane warnings and Sandy comes ashore with a well-defined eye, which I think is more likely than not. This is a very tricky situation and I don't blame them either way, people gotta get over not listening to NWS advisories vs. listening to hurricane advisories. Impacts are impacts regardless of the exact thermodynamic structure of the storm. That pretty much sums it up turtle, no real precedence by which to go by so everything was done, real time, with a sharp learning curve. This has been touched on by many, some disagree, but I believe the NHC made the correct call in handing off coastal products to the WFO's in the MA and NE. Are we really at a point where a hurricane warning and a hurricane force wind warning are that different; seriously? If anything, I place more weight on the latter given the implications of non-topical characteristics at the northern latitudes. What happens in 24hrs when the NHC releases her, ET transition complete? Do we all of a sudden drop the hurricane warning for 7 States and hoist the force warnings, for the sake of continuity, NWS handled this remarkably well given no previous precedence. That is all I have to say about that, MA and SNE should have an extensive hangover after this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The G-IV is flying above the center of Sandy at a pressure altitude of 170 mb, just above the tropopause. First time I've seen the G-IV intercept the core of a cyclone in awhile. Should get a dropsonde soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That pretty much sums it up turtle, no real precedence by which to go by so everything was done, real time, with a sharp learning curve. This has been touched on by many, some disagree, but I believe the NHC made the correct call in handing off coastal products to the WFO's in the MA and NE. Are we really at a point where a hurricane warning and a hurricane force wind warning are that different; seriously? If anything, I place more weight on the latter given the implications of non-topical characteristics at the northern latitudes. What happens in 24hrs when the NHC releases her, ET transition complete? Do we all of a sudden drop the hurricane warning for 7 States and hoist the force warnings, for the sake of continuity, NWS handled this remarkably well given no previous precedence. That is all I have to say about that, MA and SNE should have an extensive hangover after this one... Hurricane Force Wind Warnings are a marine product though, and I have found that the general public rarely, if ever, pays attention to marine products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Also I don't understand why actual Hurricane Warnings can't be kept in place even if Sandy goes ET before landfall... as it would likely be within 24 hours of landfall. HPC could keep such warnings in place... it isn't like the impact suddenly changes because it transitioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Also I don't understand why actual Hurricane Warnings can't be kept in place even if Sandy goes ET before landfall... as it would likely be within 24 hours of landfall. HPC could keep such warnings in place... it isn't like the impact suddenly changes because it transitioned. The NHC has never issued hurricane warnings for an extra-tropical cyclone, they're not going to break one of their most basic rules for the sake of keeping the public hyped up. Sandy will undoubtedly be largely baroclinic upon landfall throughout the outer vortex, besides a small core with tropical cyclone like characteristics. If they call that a hurricane and issue hurricane warnings for it then we better start issuing advisories for Polar Lows/Blizzards with warm cores in the Atlantic and East Pacific. I think that would be a good idea since they're dynamically similar, but this isn't the right time to make that decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayShore Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sidenote... I just sent an email to the NHC regarding the current warning structure.... not that I actually expect it to be read at the moment, especially considering the massive volume of emails they must be receiving... but I feel so strongly about how poor of a decision it is for NHC to ignore putting out Hurricane Watches/Warnings for the coast, that I just had to do something. I urge other meteorologists to also contact them if they feel similarly. Hopefully a large amount of emails sharing our opinion can change their decision. Here is a text of my email: [/size][/font] Appreciate the concern to those of us on the coastal regions. I'm directly on the south shore of long island and the towns are issuing evacuations (just like Irene) for homes with a canal in their back yard. My part of the same block on the other side of the street is not an evacuation zone unless the Hurricane is a Cat 1. While it's important for the NHC to not downplay these items, it doesn't mean people are completely oblivious to the potential danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 And here's more of a train wreck - what if it is officially extratropical at landfall but gets changed to tropical in post-season analysis? Tens of thousands of lawyers would be employed for years. Not to mention that the insurance policy language seems to say "named storm" - but their intent seems to be to use "extratropical storm Sandy" I hinted to the insurance side of things earlier in the thread. Being in the property insurance industry, I can grant a bit of insight. 1. If the storm is determined to not trigger the "hurricane/tropical storm deductible" during the original handling of the damages, but is then later is changed to a hurricane in post-season analysis, there is no way for the industry to backtrack and retroactively apply a higher deductable. This falls into an area of bad faith claim handling and the individual states department of insurance would not allow it. The decision regarding "nor'easter vs hurricane" will happen very quickly after the storm is complete, and as such any post-storm changes are irrelevant. 2. The NHC continuing to call this a hurricane will in all likelyhood trigger the hurricane deductable across the entire east coast. Where the industry would have legal issues is if in post-season analysis it is determined that this was NOT a tropical system, then you would see the lawyers, etc. I can understand the public safety standpoint of calling this a hurricane, but see my previous post for the mathmatics of the hurricane deductable. Either way, its going to cost someone (homeowners or the insurance industry as a whole) a lot of money. This makes sense to me, as I certainly understand the public safety aspect of things. However, to throw another wrench into the discussion, keeping this as a "hurricane" or "tropical storm" may end up costing homeowners along the cost hundreds of thousands if not millions more dollars due to deductible wording in their homeowners policy. Being a property insurance professional (who is prepared to spend some serious time in a hotel on the east coast), the designation of hurricane or tropical storm triggers the hurricane deductible, which is usually a percentage of the overall limit of liability on the policy. So for a $300,000 home, a $1000 deductible may be normal, but they may have a 2%, 3%, or higher hurricane deductible. As a hurricane, with a 2% hurricane deductible, the out of pocket cost for the homeowner jumps to $6,000. So if the NHC continues to call it a hurricane, when it is questionable as it if it is a hurricane in all conventional frames of reference, we could see a lot of litigation between states and insurance companies after the application of the hurricane deductible begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That pretty much sums it up turtle, no real precedence by which to go by so everything was done, real time, with a sharp learning curve. This has been touched on by many, some disagree, but I believe the NHC made the correct call in handing off coastal products to the WFO's in the MA and NE. Are we really at a point where a hurricane warning and a hurricane force wind warning are that different; seriously? If anything, I place more weight on the latter given the implications of non-topical characteristics at the northern latitudes. What happens in 24hrs when the NHC releases her, ET transition complete? Do we all of a sudden drop the hurricane warning for 7 States and hoist the force warnings, for the sake of continuity, NWS handled this remarkably well given no previous precedence. That is all I have to say about that, MA and SNE should have an extensive hangover after this one... Agreed Someone took care of it. Hurricane force wind warning was issued by the local office instead of NHC. Big Deal? The Katrina disaster when tornado warnings had to be issued in the eyewall area exposed a huge gap in NHC warning system. Until then, 74mph got winds get the same warning as Andrews 164mph winds. I think the Slidel office might have been trying to mock them during that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Apologies if this has been posted. Live webcam on Virgina Beach boardwalk: http://www.vbbound.c...virginia-beach/ Even better: http://www.visitob.com/webcams/sea-ranch-kill-devil-hills/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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