Hoosier Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Question for the tropical folks...is it possible that this system could pull some sort of trickery as it approaches Jamaica? We have seen erratic movements before as storms get close to land. Is this a candidate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Unfortunately there is a lack of wind on the NE side now. If winds increase to about 70mph (Wilma just before RI) it can realy capitalize on the tchp and start the rapid freefall to it's MPI. Yea, it's moving into a area of increasing shear. shear should dissipate in the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 NHC forecast now takes it up to hurricane status prior to Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 2:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 Location: 12.9°N 78.7°W Moving: Stationary Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 I don't have much change to my thoughts from yesterday. Probably still in the 25% range for a major impact in the Northeastern US. My track forecast took Sandy to Nova Scotia. The tropical part of this forecast is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Surprised at how dead this thread is.... Interestingly, a significant change in the 0Z GFS Ensembles - 7 members now bend back to hit the US from Maryland to New Brunswick... http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al182012/track_gfs/aal18_2012102300_track_gfs.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Surprised at how dead this thread is.... Interestingly, a significant change in the 0Z GFS Ensembles - 7 members now bend back to hit the US from Maryland to New Brunswick... http://www.ral.ucar....0_track_gfs.png I'm not, really. The tropical part of this forecast is trivial. The interesting stuff happens along the EC, so it's being discussed in the regional subforums. I wish more discussion would come out here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm not, really. The tropical part of this forecast is trivial. The interesting stuff happens along the EC, so it's being discussed in the regional subforums. I wish more discussion would come out here though. Yeah, it occurred to me it was all in the the subforums right after I posted that. Ecch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Adding to the ensemble thing, there was a significant shift west in all but maybe 2 GFS ensembles from 00z to 06z this morning. Here is the difference from 00z at 90hr and 06z at 84hr: What is also interesting is that the correction is mainly due west in many of the members, which would indicate that the GFS is slowing "Sandy". If it were at the same speed, Sandy would be more NW I would think. What impact does speed have on a potential capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What is also interesting is that the correction is mainly due west in many of the members, which would indicate that the GFS is slowing "Sandy". If it were at the same speed, Sandy would be more NW I would think. What impact does speed have on a potential capture? That's gonna depend on how sharp the incoming trough is, and how the northern stream vort presents itself. That's on top of the position of the NATl low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 That's gonna depend on how sharp the incoming trough is, and how the northern stream vort presents itself. That's on top of the position of the NATl low.... Yeah, I don't think position of the Sandy on Friday has a big impact on this forecast. It's more about the upstream H5 pattern, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Recon hit the center, but what they found wasn't necessarily something I was expecting. Only a 2mb drop for the last official fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 For those that can look at temps on the euro, it's got a pretty classic warm seclusion. Don't read into that statement, other than the fact that it's very cool to see from a met standpoint. The 12z run had even a greater representation of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 For those that can look at temps on the euro, it's got a pretty classic warm seclusion. Don't read into that statement, other than the fact that it's very cool to see from a met standpoint. The 12z run had even a greater representation of that. Considering it's raining in the Catskills and snowing in Harrisburg on the Euro, it's a pretty awesome solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Recon hit the center, but what they found wasn't necessarily something I was expecting. Only a 2mb drop for the last official fix. Looked good last night until the NW side collapsed and never came back.. Now it's back to the same useless convective flareups 2012 is known for. Quantaty, not Quality should be this years motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'd wait at least six hours or so until I'd call it a definite bursting pattern. If deep convection can maintain over the LLC, then this may have this first decent inner core in the Caribbean since Ernesto (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Considering it's raining in the Catskills and snowing in Harrisburg on the Euro, it's a pretty awesome solution I know. Pretty cool to see. It's tough for me to buy these solutions, but having the rather consistent EC ensemble continue with an interesting solution has me wondering here. I still think something east here, or perhaps something indirect like a low on the front may be plausible. Still time to work things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Meh... Still needs time. Read the remarks section. 000 URNT12 KNHC 231240 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 23/11:51:40Z B. 13 deg 22 min N 077 deg 53 min W C. 850 mb 1391 m D. 22 kt E. 307 deg 29 nm F. 044 deg 24 kt G. 307 deg 88 nm H. 997 mb I. 17 C / 1519 m J. 20 C / 1519 m K. 16 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF301 0218A SANDY OB 08 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 12:18:30Z Sfc cntr 340/12nm from flight level center. Flight level center up against convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I don't know where this is going, all I know is it will track at least 150 miles northeast of where the NAM says 48hrs in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 I know. Pretty cool to see. It's tough for me to buy these solutions, but having the rather consistent EC ensemble continue with an interesting solution has me wondering here. I still think something east here, or perhaps something indirect like a low on the front may be plausible. Still time to work things out. Yeah, I favor an indirect impact for the US, but the Euro solution is plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Surprised at how dead this thread is.... Interestingly, a significant change in the 0Z GFS Ensembles - 7 members now bend back to hit the US from Maryland to New Brunswick... http://www.ral.ucar....0_track_gfs.png It's still far out, but perhaps a lot of the discussion is focused in the regional threads. Given the strong blocking in place, I think it's reasonable to suggest the potential that next week could turn stormy along some portion of the East Coast. Details remain to be seen, and it's far too soon to be confident in exact solutions e.g., a phased outcome vs. something with a lesser impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 a couple of SFMR winds close to 60 mph on the latest recon pass, well away from the center though, pressure down to 996 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Looking nice, Curved Band y-t3 on this picture: The Original Dvorak technique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS rolling in, little change with the storm position thru 96. However, major change in the handling of the block in the north Atlantic, we will see if that has ramifications down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The GFS is incrementally closer to the Euro, but still is a miss. Good trend though, again we wait for the GGEM and new Euro, do they stay the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Hey guys I don't post in this forum much but I'm at beaches Turks and caicios with limited Internet access but it seems we are in some of the outer bands of this storm winds pick up quick rains like hell then stops. Is this going to get crazy here I can't looks up much? but we have red flags at the beach and they are cleaning all the drainage catch basins today. Looks like the center will track to the west of us. Any one want to give me a quick forecast we are supposed to leave sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Hey guys I don't post in this forum much but I'm at beaches Turks and caicios with limited Internet access but it seems we are in some of the outer bands of this storm winds pick up quick rains like hell then stops. Is this going to get crazy here I can't looks up much? but we have red flags at the beach and they are cleaning all the drainage catch basins today. Looks like the center will track to the west of us. Any one want to give me a quick forecast we are supposed to leave sat morning. You're going to get raked on the eastern side of a broad system. Squally rain for 48-60 hours and winds will probably be 40-45 kts sustained, gusting to 55-65 kts. Worst of the system will be Wednesday night through Friday morning. Sandy will be moving away Saturday morning, and I'd imagine you'll be able to get out assuming no damage to the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Hey guys I don't post in this forum much but I'm at beaches Turks and Caicios with limited Internet access but it seems we are in some of the outer bands of this storm winds pick up quick rains like hell then stops. Is this going to get crazy here I can't looks up much? but we have red flags at the beach and they are cleaning all the drainage catch basins today. Looks like the center will track to the west of us. Any one want to give me a quick forecast we are supposed to leave sat morning. I've been right where you are! Beautiful place isn't it! Did you meet the Unbelievable guy? On your travel matter... If at all possible try and call daily or once every two days to your Airline and get a status update. The Airport at Provo does not have the facilities to keep airliners there for more than overnight. Most likely there are going to have to take the planes out and bring them back in after the storm. I see by your avatar info box that you live in NJ. I'm guessing you flew American from JFK or the other airline (which escapes me) from Newark. If that's the case then if Sandy decides to visit the east coast your stuck, because all your planes and crews are grounded. If you flew American, consider asking the airline to put you on the flight to Miami on Saturday, at least that will get you back in the US. If all else fails consider just flying Air Canada to Toronto, you have your passport. Try airline codeshares, and talk with your airline about your options. Going back and forth to the airport is going to be very very pricy depending where on this island you are. So save a trip to the airport whenever possible. Otherwise, buckle down and have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It is very easy to look at the current situation and imagine that the GFS is progressively losing the signal of a phase potential between Sandy and the approaching wedge of higher thicknesses ahead of a cold front. The signs are all there for a solution much closer to the 1938 scenario than the 12z GFS OTS outcome. Higher pressure remains largely planted well back to the north and northwest at the moment and the small surge of colder air into Montana is supported more by surface cooling over Alberta from upslope snow -- this argues for a rapid decrease in the CAA potential whereas the large source region of the unseasonable warmth in the southern plains combined with rising heights over Greenland seems to be a signal for the front to slow down perhaps even more than the Euro and GEM solutions (from 00z) but certainly more than the GFS solution. Related to this, the slower the thickness falls over the east coast, the further north Sandy would be able to retain tropical characteristics. This may be too crude but would suggest that as long as the storm is deeper than 970 mbs and surrounded by the 570 dm thickness contour, the more likely it will be that the NHC will consider it an ongoing named storm (changing it to subtropical means little in this context) and in some of the slower cold front scenarios the storm could remain tropical as far north as landfall in Long Island which now looks most likely around late Monday. I could see the westward jog scenario but given the large-scale circulation the most likely path from landfall would be NNW into eastern Ontario and up towards eastern Hudson Bay. Another strong signal that this storm will not go northeast and miss the northeast U.S. is that retrogression is quite strong at the present time over Europe and this should have the effect of pushing higher pressure west towards Labrador and Quebec. It is not hard to imagine that blocking making a full linkage with the warm high now setting up on the east coast and likely to be around 65W by the weekend. So in other words I would expect the Euro to hold serve later, and bring a strong storm into the northeast around Sunday-Monday. If the GEM maintains any track west of landfall in NS then it could be considered to be supporting the ECM, a landfall in NS would probably make that the favoured model outcome as consensus, and if the GEM joins the GFS then we have a classic either-or model-watch for 72h. But the subjective "look" of the pattern is ominous for the east coast and we should be aware that northward phasing hurricanes tend to accelerate rapidly north of 30N, so as soon as model clarity is achieved the storm could be close to the 48h to landfall point which in the past has been defined by 30N. If this does phase there would be heavy snow potential but my feeling is that it would be mainly restricted to elevations above 800' as temperatures will remain in the 40s near sea level in that part of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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