RickinBaltimore Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 WTF....we are tracking a snowstorm in October now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 WTF....we are tracking a snowstorm in October now? Did you miss the Euro snowfall map? INCHES TO FEET OF SNOW NEXT WEEK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Let me ask - with no intent of offense - at this point, with this set up, do you think winter weather experts or tropical experts, would have the most helpful insights? I am guessing tropical, as that's what has to happen first, but then the phasing would require a more winter-centric perspective. Just asking as I'm trying to judge which perspectives across the various threads to weight more heavily this far in advance - your expertise, of course, is always humbling! I think tropical as it will start as a tropical system and then may or may not transition to an extratropical one. I suspect that the euro is overdoing things as its ens mean is farther east but also suggests quite a bit of uncertainty. The gfs ens show lots of uncertainty. I think right now CWG will have their tropical expert do an article on the storm and may also have me do one if it looks warranted as the storm possibly transitions to an extratropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 LOL. If that happened then I'd even happily accept another Dec - Mar failure winter like last year. TBH- I don't want it at all. Howling winds and 1-2' of heavy wet snow combined with trees still hanging onto their leaves would be an absolute disaster. I'm tired of dealing with tree damage in my own yard. The damage from something like this would be unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Wait, Midlo was serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 you thought i was kidding, snow on the pumpkins FTW I sure as hell did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 TBH- I don't want it at all. Howling winds and 1-2' of heavy wet snow combined with trees still hanging onto their leaves would be an absolute disaster. I'm tired of dealing with tree damage in my own yard. The damage from something like this would be unprecedented. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Storm_%22Aphid%22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 TBH- I don't want it at all. Howling winds and 1-2' of heavy wet snow combined with trees still hanging onto their leaves would be an absolute disaster. I'm tired of dealing with tree damage in my own yard. The damage from something like this would be unprecedented. I give it a .00000000001% chance of happening. And that may be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I give it a .00000000001% chance of happening. And that may be high. So you're saying theres a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 DC's biggest Oct snowstorm is 2.2" ... verbatim that is about #3/#2 all time. Climo certainly argues against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 DC's biggest Oct snowstorm is 2.2" ... verbatim that is about #3/#2 all time. Climo certainly argues against it. Plus how many times have you seen a tropical system wrap into the 500 low? Agnes? Hazel? I can't say I've seen many such cases. If you include a tropical ssytem racing nwd into NE that the probability is a lot higher but still probably would not be a snow producer. But then again, who really knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Based on chatter in other subforums looks like it's about to be a depression here at 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Plus how many times have you seen a tropical system wrap into the 500 low? Agnes? Hazel? I can't say I've seen many such cases. If you include a tropical ssytem racing nwd into NE that the probability is a lot higher but still probably would not be a snow producer. But then again, who really knows? I don't know those storms enough would have to look. I don't think I've seen anything like it myself that's for sure. Tho I do like these tropical / winter trough interaction storms generally. Wilma/nor'easter was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 WTF....we are tracking a snowstorm in October now? Sure...why the hell not? Gotta start sometime. Besides, it's not like we have much to track in winter, so we might as well get it in while we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 TBH- I don't want it at all. Howling winds and 1-2' of heavy wet snow combined with trees still hanging onto their leaves would be an absolute disaster. I'm tired of dealing with tree damage in my own yard. The damage from something like this would be unprecedented. Agreed. If that worst-case happened I'd imagine it would be the worst natural disaster in this region's history. There'd be people still without power at Christmas, maybe Valentines day given the June derecho event. That being said, however, I just can't bring myself to root against it. It's all a moot point, however, because in the end we'll probably get scattered showers, breezy conditions, and temps in the low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Agreed. If that worst-case happened I'd imagine it would be the worst natural disaster in this region's history. There'd be people still without power at Christmas, maybe Valentines day given the June derecho event. That being said, however, I just can't bring myself to root against it. It's all a moot point, however, because in the end we'll probably get scattered showers, breezy conditions, and temps in the low 50s. Right now it looks like a 75% chance of total destruction. Our options: -Massive storm surge and tree toppling wind -Biblical flooding -Snow bomb with 5% of trees surviving -Sun and a breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 ...Tropical depression forms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea... ...Tropical storm watch issued for Jamaica... summary of 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...information ----------------------------------------------- location...13.5n 78.0w about 320 mi...515 km SSW of Kingston Jamaica maximum sustained winds...30 mph...45 km/h present movement...SW or 230 degrees at 5 mph...7 km/h minimum central pressure...1003 mb...29.62 inches http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Now this made me LOL ! Right now it looks like a 75% chance of total destruction. Our options: -Massive storm surge and tree toppling wind -Biblical flooding -Snow bomb with 5% of trees surviving -Sun and a breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Right now it looks like a 75% chance of total destruction. Our options: -Massive storm surge and tree toppling wind -Biblical flooding -Snow bomb with 5% of trees surviving -Sun and a breeze Surely the snow bomb option will pan out. Even Wes is in here discussing it. He Pm'd me five minutes ago and said privately he's all in and that preparations to secure life and property should begin immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 TBH- I don't want it at all. Howling winds and 1-2' of heavy wet snow combined with trees still hanging onto their leaves would be an absolute disaster. I'm tired of dealing with tree damage in my own yard. The damage from something like this would be unprecedented. Agreed. Hopefully it misses or is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I realized we have a tricky scenario here if Sandy has to become Athena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 12z Euro is the most important run of October 22nd, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Right now it looks like a 75% chance of total destruction. Our options: -Massive storm surge and tree toppling wind -Biblical flooding -Snow bomb with 5% of trees surviving -Sun and a breeze I'm ever so slightly leaning towards option #4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I don't know those storms enough would have to look. I don't think I've seen anything like it myself that's for sure. Tho I do like these tropical / winter trough interaction storms generally. Wilma/nor'easter was fun. Here's agnes right as it is being absorbed by an upper low. http://www.esrl.noaa...mit=Create Plot Here's hazel as it is getting swept up ahead of a monster upper trough. http://www.esrl.noaa...mit=Create Plot Here it is a little later as it gets captured and pulled into the upper low. http://www.esrl.noaa...mit=Create Plot Interactions with upper troughs are really tricky and timing is super important. that is why the euro is probably wrong. It has the timing about as good as it gets. Think of it as analogous to a winter storm where the sourthern stream has to interact perfectly with the northern stream to get a big storm, most times it's a fail. Of course you already know all that but some might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 DC's biggest Oct snowstorm is 2.2" ... verbatim that is about #3/#2 all time. Climo certainly argues against it. You don't say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I realized we have a tricky scenario here if Sandy has to become Athena. I'm pretty sure that this is the 40" of snow that BB predicted. he just predicted it using Southern Hemisphere time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 http://en.wikipedia....e_Storm_"Aphid" I was going to bring that storm up in my post but didn't. I remember the pic albums from it. Just awful tree destruction. That kind of damage leaves scars for decades. I give it a .00000000001% chance of happening. And that may be high. Yep, the snow part is just silly. Not this far south. WAY too much going against that. Northern half of PA is a different story. Forgetting the snow thing and just looking at the outcome if it did retrograde as depicted would still be very damaging storm over a very large area. If it didn't produce a single flake but took the Euro path it would be historic of pretty large proportions. I think at the very least the odds of a high impact event are high enough to pay quite a bit of attention here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Surely the snow bomb option will pan out. Even Wes is in here discussing it. He Pm'd me five minutes ago and said privately he's all in and that preparations to secure life and property should begin immediately. I thought that was about the election, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I was going to bring that storm up in my post but didn't. I remember the pic albums from it. Just awful tree destruction. That kind of damage leaves scars for decades. Yep, the snow part is just silly. Not this far south. WAY too much going against that. Northern half of PA is a different story. Forgetting the snow thing and just looking at the outcome if it did retrograde as depicted would still be very damaging storm over a very large area. If it didn't produce a single flake but took the Euro path it would be historic of pretty large proportions. I think at the very least the odds of a high impact event are high enough to pay quite a bit of attention here. and i was just reading about Hazel, wow http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 bob ryan thieved my stuff :< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.