Geos Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I can't remember a December in the last decade or so that didn't have at least one day in december that was near or above 50 and 60 and this yr looks no different.. I'm not asking for a Dec 2000 just give me seasonal day time temps from the 20th through January 1st...not really asking for a lot is it? Its just something that hasn't been done here since 2000 that I can remember.. So much grinch weather has happened during that Dec 20th to the 1st stretch that has killed winter outdoor activities. December 2007 highest temperature here was 45°. 8 days above 35°. December 2005 highest temperature here was 41°. Only 40°+ day of the month. Couldn't find any highs here in December that exceeded 57° in December since 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Donny Sutherland. 2002-03 - Less than 15" of snow total at MKE airport for dec/jan/feb Don't do it, wisconsinwx. I noticed MKE did good in March that year but still...the DJF gradient in 2002-03 was insane. ORD - 13.8" MKE - 14.5" DTW - 46.2" TOL - 46.5" I loved 2002-03 but I know Im in the minority on this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 December 2007 highest temperature here was 45°. 8 days above 35°. December 2005 highest temperature here was 41°. Only 40°+ day of the month. Couldn't find any highs here in December that exceeded 57° in December since 2002. December max temps at DTW since 2000 2000 - 38F 2001 - 67F 2002 - 53F 2003 - 50F 2004 - 59F 2005 - 42F 2006 - 55F 2007 - 52F 2008 - 62F 2009 - 48F 2010 - 52F 2011 - 57F By and large, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2010 were very wintry Decembers. Again, one or two days is the NORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Have a ton of respect for Don but I'm not sure about 02-03 as an analog...it was a solid moderate Nino for one thing and there are some other things that are different this year. Unless I'm misunderstanding what he's saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 December 2007 highest temperature here was 45°. 8 days above 35°. December 2005 highest temperature here was 41°. Only 40°+ day of the month. Couldn't find any highs here in December that exceeded 57° in December since 2002. December 2001 was 60 on the 4th and 68 on the 5th.. Dec 2007 highs. Gets an F for the 20th through 26th. 27th through 3rd was ok. Jan 4th through 13th was inferno.. 63 on the 7th. 20th - 38 21th - 37 22nd - 43 23rd - 48 .4" snow 24th - 23 25th - 39 26th - 43 27th - 36 0.5" snow 28th - 34 5.5" snow 29th - 30 30th - 30 0.1" snow 31st - 31 Jan 2008 1st - 24 0.2" 2nd - 20 0.2" Dec 2005 highs. Horrible. 20th - 22 21th - 20 22nd - 39 23rd - 43 24th - 38 25th - 38 26th - 36 27th - 38 28th - 36 29th - 37 30th - 35 1.1" snow 31st - 38 Jan 2006 Average high temp for the month of Jan 39.1 1st - 39 0.33" rain 2nd - 40 0.65" rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 December 2001 was 60 on the 4th and 68 on the 5th.. Dec 2007 highs. Gets an F for the 20th through 26th. 27th through 3rd was ok. Jan 4th through 13th was inferno.. 63 on the 7th. 20th - 38 21th - 37 22nd - 43 23rd - 48 .4" snow 24th - 23 25th - 39 26th - 43 27th - 36 0.5" snow 28th - 34 5.5" snow 29th - 30 30th - 30 0.1" snow 31st - 31 Jan 2008 1st - 24 0.2" 2nd - 20 0.2" Dec 2005 highs. Horrible. 20th - 22 21th - 20 22nd - 39 23rd - 43 24th - 38 25th - 38 26th - 36 27th - 38 28th - 36 29th - 37 30th - 35 1.1" snow 31st - 38 Jan 2006 Average high temp for the month of Jan 39.1 1st - 39 0.33" rain 2nd - 40 0.65" rain January 2006 was real ugly. That was like all inclusive version of last winter. I don't overlook that warm period in 2007-2008, but the winter weather was heavy weighted compared to the mild. The warm up was pretty interesting with those storms on Jan. 7th. Christmas 2005 I just scrapped by with a wet, white Christmas. Christmas 2008 occurred at the right time, the next day it was 50. ...Yeah I can't forget December 2001. Autumn didn't want to quit that year. Best white Christmas' for me were 2000 and 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Amazing how some still accept OP runs at day 10+ as gospel. Ensembles. Always ensembles. But, what's 16 degrees in difference amongst friends? Hint, look in and around Lake Superior. Or farther to the west/northwest. Though it's not the best "snow pattern" for most of us...as shown on the 12z Euro ensembles. Still, warmth looks to translate east eventually. Though as has been the case since late Summer, the core I believe will stay to the west of the Mississippi...especially if the NAO is negative. If not, well it encompasses everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I noticed MKE did good in March that year but still...the DJF gradient in 2002-03 was insane. ORD - 13.8" MKE - 14.5" DTW - 46.2" TOL - 46.5" I loved 2002-03 but I know Im in the minority on this subforum That was a kick ass winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 That was a kick ass winter Even though there wasn't a ton of snow here, it was still a great Winter. The cold was consistent enough that the all the Great Lakes froze over which caused brutal temps in March. I remember places in the UP getting down to the -40s in March because Lake Superior was covered in ice. We had single digit highs here in March on a day with strong NE winds and sunny skies. I think that's the last time it's been that cold with sunny skies here in the thumb with a NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 That was a kick ass winter April 2003 FTW! Epic 4 day Ice storm followed by a 6" event left homes without power in Northern Oakland 4-10 days. My parents was without it for 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 April 2003 FTW! Epic 4 day Ice storm followed by a 6" event left homes without power in Northern Oakland 4-10 days. My parents was without it for 5 days. We actually got ice the day before you guys did. Then the second round came and thankfully it was pretty much all sleet when you guys were getting the ice. If we would have gotten ice the second night too, it would have been a disaster. The sleet was a couple of inches deep though. I think I recall the forecast just a couple days prior having highs in the upper 50s or something like. It never made it out of the upper 20s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Amazing how some still accept OP runs at day 10+ as gospel. Ensembles. Always ensembles. But, what's 16 degrees in difference amongst friends? Hint, look in and around Lake Superior. Or farther to the west/northwest. Though it's not the best "snow pattern" for most of us...as shown on the 12z Euro ensembles. Still, warmth looks to translate east eventually. Though as has been the case since late Summer, the core I believe will stay to the west of the Mississippi...especially if the NAO is negative. If not, well it encompasses everyone. Thank you for posting this, people need to stop looking at every single run with wild mood swings. Honestly those who jump off the cliff with every run need to stay jumped that way we don't have to continually read people freaking out about a day 10 prog that will change 50 times between now and it's occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Thank you for posting this, people need to stop looking at every single run with wild mood swings. Honestly those who jump off the cliff with every run need to stay jumped that way we don't have to continually read people freaking out about a day 10 prog that will change 50 times between now and it's occurrence. First off let me say that at times I do get excited when both the GFS and Euro show a similar solution with their OP runs 10 days out. I sometimes fail to remember that at this time of year, during the transition from fall to winter the models are even more speculative than normal. For those of you that find that annoying I apologize, that's why a couple of days ago I posted the Euro ensemble forecast, to counter act or confirm the OP's. I have been paying some attention to Allan's model site in regards to individual GFS ensemble members snowfall forecast, and frankly they have not been of much help. I have been fairly quiet the last couple of days regarding this potential storm as most of the models that showed a deepening system from WI to the Detroit have not really shown a strong phasing of the ULJ. In almost all cases the trough dropping south has picked up just the very northern portion of the southern jet, and for the most part not until it's over or close to the Arklatex area, which is not favorable for a low that tracks just west of Chicago. That weak signal of a coupled jet has had me suspicious of those runs. One more thing that kind of annoys me is the mention of this city or that city showing temps similar to this year and this and that happened down the road. That is really useless info for me unless it correlates to what we are seeing this year, a weak El Nino, a strong negative PDO and a strong positive AMO. I think the major player this year will be how strong is that negative PDO. Again sorry if I annoyed some peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Here is what I think will happen will happen with this winter. Deterministic forecast of course is low this far out, but a probability forecast this far out is slightly above average in the confidence factor. I think the baroclinic (sp) area will set up on the north side from Des Moines to Madison WI to Lansing MI. On the southern side I see it bordering Springfield IL to Indy IN and Columbus OH. Those areas I think will see above normal snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The met's that have been talking about the PV splitting and the cold dumping South were on the money. The arctic get's completely divided by ridging and strong elongated HP's. The Lakes Region will be under cold for part of this it seems before the torch out West head's East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Weenie time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 January 2006 was real ugly. That was like all inclusive version of last winter. I don't overlook that warm period in 2007-2008, but the winter weather was heavy weighted compared to the mild. The warm up was pretty interesting with those storms on Jan. 7th. Christmas 2005 I just scrapped by with a wet, white Christmas. Christmas 2008 occurred at the right time, the next day it was 50. ...Yeah I can't forget December 2001. Autumn didn't want to quit that year. Best white Christmas' for me were 2000 and 2010. 2007-08 was interesting because first, my area got the worst screwjob I have ever seen from the New Years snowstorm, then a few days record we were basking in one of the all-time January "heatwaves".....yet.....that winter and its 78.2" of snow is 2nd only to 2004-05 imby (and by less than 2 inches). For DTW its the 4th snowiest winter on record (71.7"). I will take a few day January heatwave for another winter like that. And btw, that Jan 2008 warmspell, imo, was the true definition of a "torch". And if Im not mistaken thats when the word "torch" started on these boards (now it is applied for almost anything above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 We actually got ice the day before you guys did. Then the second round came and thankfully it was pretty much all sleet when you guys were getting the ice. If we would have gotten ice the second night too, it would have been a disaster. The sleet was a couple of inches deep though. I think I recall the forecast just a couple days prior having highs in the upper 50s or something like. It never made it out of the upper 20s here. Missed the brunt of the ice storm thanks to hours of 33F and rain, had some decorative icicles on everything but not enough to cause problems. And they amazingly didnt melt the next day lol. Did get 5" of snow April 7th. 2002-03 is special because it was my first 60"+ winter (its old hat five 60"+ winters later ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Here is what I think will happen will happen with this winter. Deterministic forecast of course is low this far out, but a probability forecast this far out is slightly above average in the confidence factor. I think the baroclinic (sp) area will set up on the north side from Des Moines to Madison WI to Lansing MI. On the southern side I see it bordering Springfield IL to Indy IN and Columbus OH. Those areas I think will see above normal snowfall rates. I will take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 2007-08 was interesting because first, my area got the worst screwjob I have ever seen from the New Years snowstorm, then a few days record we were basking in one of the all-time January "heatwaves".....yet.....that winter and its 78.2" of snow is 2nd only to 2004-05 imby (and by less than 2 inches). For DTW its the 4th snowiest winter on record (71.7"). I will take a few day January heatwave for another winter like that. And btw, that Jan 2008 warmspell, imo, was the true definition of a "torch". And if Im not mistaken thats when the word "torch" started on these boards (now it is applied for almost anything above normal). The New Years storm lives on forever. Lol. We got between 8-9 inches troy where i was staying the time. But i remember places to the south around the city got 3-5. Thats awfull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The New Years storm lives on forever. Lol. We got between 8-9 inches troy where i was staying the time. But i remember places to the south around the city got 3-5. Thats awfull. That was a nice storm for Novi... I remember that one well. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The New Years storm lives on forever. Lol. We got between 8-9 inches troy where i was staying the time. But i remember places to the south around the city got 3-5. Thats awfull. LOL I would have KILLED for 3-5"! DTW actually did respectable with 5.5". What did I get, some 8 or so miles east on the river? Well, 1.8", but it actually RAINED at the end and sunk then froze into less than an inch of crust. I remember I was furious, but already that young winter I had a 10" storm under my belt (well, 9.8", from Dec 15/16) and I knew 60+ temps were 4 days away, so I dealt with it. The rest of the winter was snowstorm galore, and us same river communities screwed Jan 1st were jackpotted with 10-11" Mar 5th (most of the region still saw a decent 4-8"). So, after almost getting 80" of snow for winter, nearly double climo, I was more than willing to forgive ma nature for the Jan 1st debacle. But thanks to the fact it was quite a memorable storm for most of my SE MI comrades, Ill never be able to forget it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 EURO has an impressive cold shot in about 7 days, but then like the GFS and GGEM, there's quite the warming trend as we get towards 240 hours. I wouldn't even mention it considering how far out it is but all 3 of those long range models hint at it so there's probably at least a modicum of merit to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 EURO has an impressive cold shot in about 7 days, but then like the GFS and GGEM, there's quite the warming trend as we get towards 240 hours. I wouldn't even mention it considering how far out it is but all 3 of those long range models hint at it so there's probably at least a modicum of merit to it. Quite impressive for November standards too. But like you said the GFS says otherwise. Again its the long range, 5+ days out and anything can change but i do foresee a cold end through the last week of November and maybe the first few days of December. Pattern may become zonal and gradient type their after in my opinion. We may end up with a December similar to 2007 or 2005 in my opinion but nothing in my mind seems to indicate a repeat of last year's December or 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 If the polar vortex is going to split and half of it come south, I would not expect a "torch" anytime soon! Usually once the vortex splits during the early part of the winter, the AO stays largely negative and prevents any long term mild periods. I don't think there's any question that the rest of this month for this subforum it will be below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Our main problem here coming up is going to be the large vortex over NE Asia that doesn’t seem to want to go away—aka a –WPO—and the associated ridging over Alaska/the Aleutians, which is going to continue to want to produce troughing off the west coast and try to raise heights over the central US: With a falling AO/NAO and splitting PV early next week, with plenty of cold air over western Canada thanks to the Aleutian ridging causing a cross polar flow, this will effectively dump a good amount of cold air into the central and eastern US next week: Given the extensive blocking in this time frame, this cold air will stick around. However, the Aleutian ridge is expected to remain in place, and troughing is expected to persist near the US west coast, and heights, per most modeling, are expected to rise in the central US, shunning the cold east: Note how the northeast Asian vortex remains very strong, which is maintaining the Aleutian ridge through day 10 of the European ensembles. The GFS and European ensembles are in fairly good agreement on this configuration in the western Pacific/eastern Asia at day 10: This isn’t good for us, as it will make it hard to maintain lower than normal heights over the central US. The MJO is still expected to move into phase 1 this upcoming week and potentially into phase 2 in early December: However, a look at the 180 hr GFS shows that while the model is hinting strengthening the upper level tropical ridging east of the date line thanks to convection occurring east of the dateline, the WPO vortex overwhelms the pattern and continues to pump up the Aleutian ridge and thus, make it harder for ridging to pop on the west coast of the US: As we look ahead on the GFS ensembles at the end of their runs 12z, although there is expected variance among the ensemble members, the general idea seems to be for the northeastern Asia vortex to remain in place, which will allow the unfavorable Pacific pattern to continue. Looking at the bottom portions of the stratosphere as we head into early December, the GFS and ECM (above) show a split polar vortex with warming from the bottom up from eastern Asia towards Alaska. This will on the bright side potentially encourage the AO to not go raging positive as we wait for the northeast Asian vortex to weaken or shift west. However, until that happens, we likely won’t see more than parting cold shots with an average to slightly above average temp regime in between in the Lakes/Ohio Valley, with no substantial snow storm threats. We may see this change the second week of December…if we don’t by then, a continued eastward progression of the MJO from phase 2 towards phases 3-7 would favor a rising NAO, which may keep things rather uninteresting well into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Just because it shifts south doesn't mean much if it is going to party in western Canada and Baja. We need a overhaul of the pacific.........which will hopefully occur at some point in December. Good research. True that the polar vortex has to move the right direction to share some of it's cold with us. I have to say I've never seen high heights over the central US with a Greenland Block! That 4th map is odd looking. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Good research. True that the polar vortex has to move the right direction to share some of it's cold with us. I have to say I've never seen high heights over the central US with a Greenland Block! That 4th map is odd looking. lol Ya it's a good example of how the Pacific can overpower the Atlantic, which looks like will happen starting late next week. Either way, it looks like the Atlantic side may remain neutral if not favorable until around mid-December assuming the MJO takes a couple of weeks to propagate through phases 1 and 2 as it normally does. If that polar vortex over Asia doesn't either shift around or weaken in that time we will probably waste a decent period of NAO blocking without any significant storms or long lasting cold, with next weeks moderate end potential over a small area not withstanding. So what I'm saying is we may get another small window somewhere around or just before mid-December if the Pacific cooperates. If not we may need to wait until some point in January. And don't take this as me cancelling winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Love all your right ups, OHweather. Thanks much and keep them coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Ya it's a good example of how the Pacific can overpower the Atlantic, which looks like will happen starting late next week. Either way, it looks like the Atlantic side may remain neutral if not favorable until around mid-December assuming the MJO takes a couple of weeks to propagate through phases 1 and 2 as it normally does. If that polar vortex over Asia doesn't either shift around or weaken in that time we will probably waste a decent period of NAO blocking without any significant storms or long lasting cold, with next weeks moderate end potential over a small area not withstanding. So what I'm saying is we may get another small window somewhere around or just before mid-December if the Pacific cooperates. If not we may need to wait until some point in January. And don't take this as me cancelling winter Blah. Dare I say it, but that sounds like last winter! It seems as though the Pacific has ruled the pattern during many of our cold seasons. By the way, EXCELLENT analysis and write-up. I enjoyed reading it...even though it is NOT what I wanted to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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