michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Blah. Dare I say it, but that sounds like last winter! It seems as though the Pacific has ruled the pattern during many of our cold seasons. By the way, EXCELLENT analysis and write-up. I enjoyed reading it...even though it is NOT what I wanted to hear. I agree, always enjoy the writeups. Our dream run of winters came to a screeching halt last year, and trust me Im NOT saying you cant have two crappy winters in a row, as its happened many times before. In fact one bare winter certainly didnt statistically make up/even-up for the surplus of snow weve seen recentl,. Its just overall our weather pattern and conditions show that in the end, this winter should be nothing like last. While I dont think we will be seeing the gawdy season snow numbers of recent winters, I think this one's gonna be more for the winter sports enthusiasts and ice fishermen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I noticed that this map isn't for another 8 days or so. Wondering if there could be different arrangement in the troughs and ridge by then. Maybe the eastern Siberia low won't come as far west? Allow everything over North America to shift west? What if we end up with a west based block by Greenland? I see our eastern subforum friends look to be more in seasonable air during this time frame. How much has this map been changing every run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Love all your right ups, OHweather. Thanks much and keep them coming! Thanks! Blah. Dare I say it, but that sounds like last winter! It seems as though the Pacific has ruled the pattern during many of our cold seasons. By the way, EXCELLENT analysis and write-up. I enjoyed reading it...even though it is NOT what I wanted to hear. Thanks. I think the takeaway is though to be patient...we are already trying to weaken the stratospheric vortex (and it is fairly strong) before December...that didn't happen until ehh I want to say late January maybe last winter...and we are also getting convection east of the dateline already...which again was missing last year. In addition, we have seen several recent episodes of NAO blocking. So, while the end result hasn't been great for us, we certainly haven't torched and this certainly doesn't look like last winter. I noticed that this map isn't for another 8 days or so. Wondering if there could be different arrangement in the troughs and ridge by then. Maybe the eastern Siberia low won't come as far west? Allow everything over North America to shift west? What if we end up with a west based block by Greenland? I see our eastern subforum friends look to be more in seasonable air during this time frame. How much has this map been changing every run? The European ensembles have had that kind of look...with the emerging western/central US ridge and trough off the west coast, all pushing the eastern US trough off to the northeast...for a few runs now. If we had a true retrograding block into Greenland...say like what forced Sandy into the east coast...the trough would probably be quite sharp and the Lakes/Ohio Valley would be cooler. We'll see if it happens...the models have really favored more of a thumb ridge type block just east of Greenland for a while now as opposed to a massive west-based block. We really need to watch for changes over the Pacific...changes there are what may help us down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12Z GFS really cancels a lot of the warmup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Uh, ok? Instead of 60 degrees being pumped up to the Hudson Bay, its low 40's in lower Michigan. Thats a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Is now this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Worrying about temps at that range is like worrying about what the clown maps say. The U.P is building snowpack and I would rather see some signs that its not going to be torched by 60 degrees. BTW: Keep note, this is LONG TERM DISCO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Warming in the extended is looking unavoidable at this point with magnitude and duration the big questions. It will probably be more drastic the farther west you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 torch imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 :-( Oh the torch is imminent for southern Lakes, just not so bad for the yoop anymore. High temps in the mid 30's will be the worst they suffer. I'm heading up there on the 7th and hoping for the best, looks like a few more lake events and maybe a synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Hope your weather prediction is a lot better than your Tuesday in early early November one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Is Saukville producing these maps? Our averages the first week of December are right around freezing for the high temp and the upper teens for lows... Doesn't take that warm of temps to torch at that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Is Saukville producing these maps? Our averages the first week of December are right around freezing for the high temp and the upper teens for lows... Doesn't take that warm of temps to torch at that time of year. These maps have been wrong for 4 straight months... They never forecast below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Is Saukville producing these maps? Our averages the first week of December are right around freezing for the high temp and the upper teens for lows... Doesn't take that warm of temps to torch at that time of year. Lol, wouldn't be surprised if he was! It'll probably mean highs in the 40s for the lower lakes with lows in the 20s someplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Hopefully the Pacific gets it act together by mid-December. I don't think I can take this board with another bad start. The crying and whining would be insufferable by Christmas. There are quite a few winters with warm first week Decembers that turn fairly quickly. Shame to waste all that air on the Pacific fish. The source region is there. The Pacific signal can overwhelm the Atlantic signal sometimes so an unfavorable Pacific can be brutal for our region. Hopefully a sort of pseudo Weak El nino effect kicks in later in the month so we can create a more favorable pattern. At this point i dont see the warming to continue across the ENSO regions esp with the SOI remaining more positive and the MJO heading into phases 1-3, La Nina-ish pattern? The GLAAM is finally positive and the Stratosphere is different compared to last year but if the ridge across Alaska can shift further East towards the Aleutians or Western Siberia we can develop a PNA ridge across the West and allow for a trough and possible subtropical action for more storms and cold in this region, lets see. But i dont see anything "fun" for now till Dec 10th. Whats your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The Pacific signal can overwhelm the Atlantic signal sometimes so an unfavorable Pacific can be brutal for our region. Hopefully a sort of pseudo Weak El nino effect kicks in later in the month so we can create a more favorable pattern. At this point i dont see the warming to continue across the ENSO regions esp with the SOI remaining more positive and the MJO heading into phases 1-3, La Nina-ish pattern? The GLAAM is finally positive and the Stratosphere is different compared to last year but if the ridge across Alaska can shift further East towards the Aleutians or Western Siberia we can develop a PNA ridge across the West and allow for a trough and possible subtropical action for more storms and cold in this region, lets see. But i dont see anything "fun" for now till Dec 10th. Whats your thoughts? Always remember, its not last year. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Is Saukville producing these maps? Our averages the first week of December are right around freezing for the high temp and the upper teens for lows... Doesn't take that warm of temps to torch at that time of year. Might as well shoot myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Might as well shoot myself. Eh...Cromartie was posting those maps back in October that showed a torch for most of November for our area. FWA is currently at -2.0°F for the month. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Eh...Cromartie was posting those maps back in October that showed a torch for most of November for our area. FWA is currently at -2.0°F for the month. LOL We were -9 for a one week period that had us previously in solid red. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Well its not the best long range. But it still beats the hell out of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 One thing to remember is even if the next month, maybe even 6 or so weeks are for the most part seasonably mild and perhaps boring, this is not last year and there has been talk of a backloaded winter...note how the CPC 8-14 day analogs, which show a zonal flow over our sub-forum, have several dates from winters that really picked up in January...2010, 1977, 1966, 1968...and to some extend 1980. So patience is required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I find the weather takes baby steps in long term cooling and warming trends. Very rarely does the temps plumit without some sort of warming up in the short term. Think of it as the law of averages. I think the long term winter trend will show the cold pushes will last longer and more frequent. Yes a warm spell or two might develope but will be quickly in and out. Winter will be cold and long. I just hope not too cold for the gulf moisture will be locked well to south for any major snow outbreaks. I'm no professional just a home schooled weather junky who needs to be one step in front of mothernature in the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Well its not the best long range. But it still beats the hell out of last year. Whether it verifies or not, the GFS is trying to moderate the torch. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 1842-43?? That seems to be a very harsh winter from a quick google search. What makes you think this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 As someone who usually throws the towel in first, I'm shocked to hear people already looking forward to January. I mean seriously, its 7 days from DECEMBER! I think its ok to throw the towel in on week 1, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 As someone who usually throws the towel in first, I'm shocked to hear people already looking forward to January. I mean seriously, its 7 days from DECEMBER! I think its ok to throw the towel in on week 1, but that's about it. Just need a good snow to get these folks to step back, off the ledge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 WOW! All ready talking about a "back loaded winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 WOW! All ready talking about a "back loaded winter" Its crazy. There is still one WEEK left of NOVEMBER. This winter/pattern is NOTHING like 2011-12. Its funny, we had how many harsh winters in a row before last winter? And people still had November angst (because even in those near-record snowy winters, this area couldnt buy a decent Nov). Now we had one mild, well-below normal snowfall season and every day with bare ground or every model run with some mild days brings in fear that we are seeing another 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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