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Tuesday/Wednesday Storm


CT Rain

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The NAM to me looks like we could see an isolated low topped supercell or two during the day on Tuesday followed by a Tuesday night deluge. A modest (and I mean modest) amount of surface based CAPE and very strong 0-1km shear with a LLJ up near 50 knots.

GFS has a surge coming north as well, Tuesday morning. Looks warm frontal-ish.

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I don't really see much severe with this..outside a renegade spin up possibly to our southwest.

Yeah for most of us agreed. I think CT down through the mid atlantic could get interesting along the warm front if we can generate some instability. Conditional tornado threat SW of HFD IMO.

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I don't really see much severe with this..outside a renegade spin up possibly to our southwest.

In terms of anything widespread... yeah absolutely not. Low topped supercell potential with isolated tornadoes and damaging gusts?

Much like the last event once we get into the overnight the best forcing lifts to our northwest and the dynamics begin to wane.

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Yeah for most of us agreed. I think CT down through the mid atlantic could get interesting along the warm front if we can generate some instability. Conditional tornado threat SW of HFD IMO.

I see that threat in CT and points SW as well. Conditional like you said. I guess I'm referring to the KFS derecho. Looks like more forced squall line with minimal instability. LLJ is strong though...maybe a few weenie gusts.

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