weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 That's a really impressive synoptic setup for a NE severe weather event. As other have mentioned timing looks a bit slow for us but it looks impressive just west of us. I wouldn't be surprised to see some discrete activity form out ahead of the line which could try and work into western sections early on. I see the main line surviving fairly well (of course with some breaks in the line) but how much severe weather we see from it will all depend on how much instability we have left. Even for several hours after dark though some models have some decent instability. No inversion in the BL either so we shouldn't have many issues mixing down some strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sct tstms that I talked about yesterday over SE MA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Odd to see a 30% hatched SWODY2 for a chunk of SNE and not even a mention of severe weather in the BOX AFD. That's really surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sort of bummed I have my brother's stag party tomorrow. Ugh. Ladies and gents, red tag post of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Odd to see a 30% hatched SWODY2 for a chunk of SNE and not even a mention of severe weather in the BOX AFD. That's really surprising. Do you ever remember seeing us go from a SEE TEXT to 30% hatched in the span of one outlook? I can't think of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 With the extreme heat down south I'm wondering if as the trough amplifies over the next 36 hours it may be able to tap into the reservoir and advect a narrow column of hot dry air northward. I think the euro may be hinting at this slightly. If that were to occur, perhaps it may add to our elevated instability overnight? Any extra CIN that may come with it I would think would be overcome by the strong forcing associated with the fropa. I find it hard to believe that we'll get much if anything rooted at the surface much after sunset, but a solid light show certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sct tstms that I talked about yesterday over SE MA now. Ya I mentioned in my blog post yesterday that there was a chance for scattered showers and storms in portions of SNE for today too. As for Saturday still not excited. Let me know if this mornings NAM speeds up by about 6 hours. Then I might like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Those storms were so tiny..lol. Not sure how much else develops, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Odd to see a 30% hatched SWODY2 for a chunk of SNE and not even a mention of severe weather in the BOX AFD. That's really surprising. Probably because like me BOX still has there tail between their legs from the last severe weather threat that had timing issues. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sct tstms that I talked about yesterday over SE MA now. But that was more for the afternoon/evening I thought..not early morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 I really like the fact we have a somewhat rapidly deepening sfc low just off to our west along with a sharpening trough. The vort along the trough is nothing to sneeze at either...that thing will mean business. Dynamics rapidly increase in response to the deepening low and sharpening trough as well and there should be large amounts of both 0-1 and 0-3km helicity with great speed shear as well. As far as the timing of things goes the only thing I think that will matter with will be the potential for a few tornadoes and a more widespread damaging wind event. Even if we see the line come through after dark the sfc stays somewhat unstable thanks to a flux of llvl moisture and high theta-e air so we should see at least isolated svr all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Can we change the topic name? Wtf is with the low topped squall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Can we change the topic name? Wtf is with the low topped squall line? I did that for Kevin He's made several post the past few weeks mocking me about my love for low topped squall lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Can we change the topic name? Wtf is with the low topped squall line? We all know that is Wiz's # 1 fetish..Low topped squall lines. He makes a minimum of 5 threads each fall about them..and rarely if ever do they occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 thats impressive!! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wow Impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 The 12z NAM is pretty impressive. EHI values are pretty robust and I wouldn't be shocked to see discrete cells developing across eastern NY and moving into VT/MA/CT as early as 4 PM or so. Only issue is not much directional shear in the 700-500mb level, however, the speed shear is there and great deal of directional shear between the sfc and 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 The lift is going to be pretty nuts...some decent omega values being spit out by the NAM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On my phone now, is the low level shear similar to the 00z run last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 On my phone now, is the low level shear similar to the 00z run last night? If anything it's a tad more impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On the whole the 12z Nam slightly weaker with the low compared to 0z. Trough not as consolidated as it amplifies over the lakes. Result is not quite as impressive winds in NY, but pretty much identical for SNE. Sim radar (which I generally hate) is balls to the walls on the line around dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The MLCAPE axis on the SPC SREF mean is fairly meager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 One thing to watch too is where the warm front gets hung up or washed out...would leave an area of further backed winds and we would have localized areas of even higher helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 The MLCAPE axis on the SPC SREF mean is fairly meager. The SPC SREF hasn't been as impressive with it's past few runs with some of the parameters...interesting b/c other models haven't been backing off much. I just hope we can develop just enough Cape so where updrafts aren't being torn apart by strong winds aloft...although with the amount of forcing/lift involved here that could be enough to compensate for lack of stronger Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 If anything it's a tad more impressive! Will check soundings later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Will check soundings later. The hodos are pretty sick looking...long and curved. If we can get discrete cells along with sufficient instability those cells will go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On the whole the 12z Nam slightly weaker with the low compared to 0z. Trough not as consolidated as it amplifies over the lakes. Result is not quite as impressive winds in NY, but pretty much identical for SNE. Sim radar (which I generally hate) is balls to the walls on the line around dark. Link to the sim radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Link to the sim radar? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/12/nam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 But that was more for the afternoon/evening I thought..not early morning? There may be a few cells popping later. All I meant was that don't be shocked for iso or sct stuff around today. Reality is that only a few will see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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