Tropical Storm Isaac, Part 2: Isaac Moving Into The Gulf Of Mexico-Hurricane Warnings For Morgan City, LA/MS/AL & FL Panhandle To Destin, FL

[Superstorm93]

Trof is still going to grab this and bring it NNW into the Panhandle.

Still slower and stronger than the 12z by 84 hours.

FWIW: 1000-850mb winds on the GFS are around 80+ knots.

[Derecho!]

0Z UKMET has a very goofy double-barreled low (init has a low over Jamaica) that I suspect may ruin it.

[yoda]

Looks like landfall near Destin/Pensacola around 96 hrs

[ALhurricane]

Once it reaches the coast it's slowing down big time on this run.

[WeSuck]

From 93-108 hours, it just sits over western Panhandle with very little movement

EDIT: Finally beginning to move by 120. Wow

[phil882]

From 93-108 hours, it just sits over western Panhandle with very little movement

EDIT: Finally beginning to move by 120. Wow

Its a pretty precarious solution, not unlike what occurred with with Georges in 1998. It wouldn't take much of a southward shift for the system to stall in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Superstorm93]

Its a pretty precarious solution, not unlike what occurred with with Georges in 1998. It wouldn't take much of a southward shift for the system to stall in the Gulf of Mexico.

Taking a look at the 500mb panels...

Holy cow at the death ridge that develops 24 hours later.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Yikes!!! At what's happening in the Southeast post-landfall. The entire state of Georgia would eliminate its drought and by 144 its stalling out over the Southern Appalachians...

[Analog96]

Its a pretty precarious solution, not unlike what occurred with with Georges in 1998. It wouldn't take much of a southward shift for the system to stall in the Gulf of Mexico.

If it stalls right on or very close to the coast, and a good deal of the storm remains over water, weakening would be greatly diminished from a storm that's well inland.

[Derecho!]

Hilarious windshield-wipe from the Canadian..now goes down the SOUTH side of Cuba and ends up West of New Orleans....

[gulfcane]

So far the trend I've seen from all models is they've caught on to the slower forward speed. GFS, CMC, HWRF, NOGAPS all slower thus far.

[SnowGoose69]

The NHC forecast track has this storm spending about 72 hours with the core over open water before impacting the FL panhandle. I've got to believe that's enough time for some real strength surprises to the upside if all goes well. K***ina was a Cat 1 in the Everglades.

It seems any storm the last 5-10 years thats had a decent structure and not been too large in size upon entering the Gulf has undergone some kind of crazy strengthening at some point, wouldn't be surprised if this one does too.

[Amped]

It seems any storm the last 5-10 years thats had a decent structure and not been too large in size upon entering the Gulf has undergone some kind of crazy strengthening at some point, wouldn't be surprised if this one does too.

FL keys would have a threat from that if it happens north of Cuba. Of course it probably won't happen but they still have to start evacuating now.

[jcwxguy]

looks like he is making landfall,or will be very shortly

[turtlehurricane]

Mountains disrupting the northwest quad, the next 6-12 hours are going to be tough as Isaac crosses high terrain.

[Superstorm93]

WRT strength, if this somehow manages to avoid Cuba over the next 12-18 hours, then it's obvious that Isaac will be decently stronger than forecast while passing through the Florida Straights. This area is rather popular for significant intensification of tropical cyclones over the past century and if everything works out well for the storm, it could be a hurricane while passing through.

Now it seems like there will be a marginally favorable environment for strengthening in the GOM, but nothing perfect by any means. HWRF and GFDL only bring Isaac up to a minimal C1 while the ECMWF has pressures in the low 960's. Experimental HFIP guidance isn't excited either. This makes me a bit skeptical that we see anything too surprising while in the Gulf, but I would not rule the possibility of some quick intensification if this can enter the GOM as a well-established storm.

Given the projected environment and the less-than-enthused intensity models, I'd say that Isaac has the potential to max out around 80-90 knots before landfall.

[Dunkman]

Wow the Euro track is absolutely identical to last night's 0z run through 48h. It is substantially weaker though.

[Superstorm93]

Wow the Euro track is absolutely identical to last night's 0z run through 48h. It is substantially weaker though.

I wouldn't say substantially weaker.

It's actually south/west/weaker than the 12z after leaving Cuba.

Starting to see a trend in the 00z models. Slower speed is the name of the game.

[HurricaneJosh]

WRT strength, if this somehow manages to avoid Cuba over the next 12-18 hours, then it's obvious that Isaac will be decently stronger than forecast while passing through the Florida Straights. This area is rather popular for significant intensification of tropical cyclones over the past century and if everything works out well for the storm, it could be a hurricane while passing through.

Now it seems like there will be a marginally favorable environment for strengthening in the GOM, but nothing perfect by any means. HWRF and GFDL only bring Isaac up to a minimal C1 while the ECMWF has pressures in the low 960's. Experimental HFIP guidance isn't excited either. This makes me a bit skeptical that we see anything too surprising while in the Gulf, but I would not rule the possibility of some quick intensification if this can enter the GOM as a well-established storm.

Given the projected environment and the less-than-enthused intensity models, I'd say that Isaac has the potential to max out around 80-90 knots before landfall.

I basically agree with all of this-- especially the bolded.

[andyhb]

00z GFDL is substantially stronger south of Miami at 42 hrs, 977 mb. (Just to throw a wrench in Superstorm's prediction lol)

[Superstorm93]

0Z ECM wayyy east and weaker

Keep this kind of stuff in the banter thread.

00z ECM makes landfall in Pensacola by 96 hours. Too many isobars to tell how strong it is.

Right on track with the GFS.

[Dunkman]

Keep this kind of stuff in the banter thread.

00z ECM makes landfall in Pensacola by 96 hours. Too many isobars to tell how strong it is.

Right on track with the GFS.

979mb...all signs are pointing to a cat. 1-2 really. It does go from 993 to 979 the last 24 hours so the Euro thinks that is going to be a pretty favorable environment.

[Minnesota Meso]

Euro and GFS seem to be locking onto to a near Pensacola landfall, the GFS appears to be a bit faster, say by 6-12hrs, way to early for any intensity forecast though

[Superstorm93]

HWRF is also stronger on its 00z run

EDIT: 00z GFDL has interaction with SFL

[CooL]

Just like the gfs, euro slowly moves or even stalls isaac just north of landfall. Trough misses it and it gets stuck under the ridge

[tmagan]

06Z Observations

[Superstorm93]

00z HWRF has the kind of strengthening that I mentioned could be possible if this takes advantage of the Florida Straights.

Only problem is that it moves Isaac into SFL thereafter.

[tornadotony]

00z HWRF has the kind of strengthening that I mentioned could be possible if this takes advantage of the Florida Straights.

Only problem is that it moves Isaac into SFL thereafter.

On that path, it'll weaken 5 knots tops passing over the Everglades and immediately resume strengthening in the Gulf.

[Scott747]

It has made landfall already and looks to track right over Gonave Island.

[Dunkman]

It has made landfall already and looks to track right over Gonave Island.

Pretty impressive 51 knot dropsonde on the south side of the circulation. It may have gotten to hurricane status briefly. To be fair the message said it was dropped in the eye but the 60mph W wind kinda makes me think it missed.