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Mid-Atlantic tropical thread


Ian

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I think the paper suggests the same things about phases 1-3 being the most favorable for development. Even if it is a flawed paper, I like the figure showing phases 1-3 being more favorable for development than the other phases.

Ventrice, M. J., C. D. Thorncroft, and P. E. Roundy (2011), The Madden-

Julian Oscillation’s influence on African easterly waves and downstream

tropical cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 2704–2722, doi:10.1175/

MWR-D-10-05028.1.

Wes, I'm sorry for the late response. I had a family emergency over the last week but things are getting better.

I agree that the overall theme with the phases and possibility for rapid intensification are basically intuitive at this point. It's not the lack of originality that gets under my skin as much as the way they went about manipulating the data to use to develop that lack of originality. It just adds frustration to more frustration and then suddenly I find myself hating the whole paper. Really, what use or good comes from his findings anyway (good luck forecasting a MJO wave > 1SD in late summer/early autumn beyond a few days to anticipate a RI of some hurricane).

Did you see how he divided ENSO? Years like 1991, e.g., are labeled "neutral" with his method. I don't mind the use of the MEI but dividing the years simply by how the stack against other years is NOT representative of the mean ENSO circulations. Therefore, some years were misrepresented.

Also, where is the information to tell us he has a true MJO wave? How did he correct for possible false signals? Anyone involved with these EOFs knows that in the summer, generally a true MJO wave has a less of a chance at being detected than in the winter. He didn't account for this possibility or the fact they could be kelvin waves. Simply taking 1 SD MJO waves is not cutting it when there are numerous issues with that data.

Stuff like this was being produced years before the paper and I found it to be "jumping on the bandwagon" more than anything enlightening.

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Filter skin ftw, Dave.

Id imagine SEP will be in effect soon.

I think the problem with SEP is that is does reduce some of the fun of tracking these systems. I personally enjoy the play-by-play for the model runs coming in. Nobody is even discussing the GFS here or on the main board (haven't checked the other sub-forums).

Anyway, the GFS is a hurricane killer, with a lot of interaction with Hispaniola, and then a traverse right down the spine of Cuba.

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I think the problem with SEP is that is does reduce some of the fun of tracking these systems. I personally enjoy the play-by-play for the model runs coming in. Nobody is even discussing the GFS here or on the main board (haven't checked the other sub-forums).

Anyway, the GFS is a hurricane killer, with a lot of interaction with Hispaniola, and then a traverse right down the spine of Cuba.

There might not be much model talk since it is almost akin to winter storm watching. Every little model shift will send people into a tizzy. It is just so hard to take anything seriously with the large amount of uncertainty.

That said, any trend the GFS has toward a more W track would only give more credence to what the Euro showed from last night.

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There might not be much model talk since it is almost akin to winter storm watching. Every little model shift will send people into a tizzy. It is just so hard to take anything seriously with the large amount of uncertainty.

That said, any trend the GFS has toward a more W track would only give more credence to what the Euro showed from last night.

The "trend" this year is for slow development and west/south trends IMO. Haven't looked closely enough but wouldn't be shocked to see it miss south as much as I'd like to see it track across the islands to screw up the hype.

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There might not be much model talk since it is almost akin to winter storm watching. Every little model shift will send people into a tizzy. It is just so hard to take anything seriously with the large amount of uncertainty.

That said, any trend the GFS has toward a more W track would only give more credence to what the Euro showed from last night.

Not like there is anything else going on other than one ridiculously beautiful day out. :)

Scrapes the entire west coast of FL

post-1746-0-72639500-1345566601_thumb.gi

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The "trend" this year is for slow development and west/south trends IMO. Haven't looked closely enough but wouldn't be shocked to see it miss south as much as I'd like to see it track across the islands to screw up the hype.

the best chance at a real system is definitely the south route. These forecasts are always tough...there really isn't all that much difference in track between what would be a 40 kt ts over Hispaniola/Cuba or a 110 kt monster just south lol.

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I think the problem with SEP is that is does reduce some of the fun of tracking these systems. I personally enjoy the play-by-play for the model runs coming in. Nobody is even discussing the GFS here or on the main board (haven't checked the other sub-forums).

Anyway, the GFS is a hurricane killer, with a lot of interaction with Hispaniola, and then a traverse right down the spine of Cuba.

I saw some talk on the main page, but even if SEP is in effect, it's mainly for the main thread. I can't imagine Ian, Randy and Midlo would SEP in here...as long as we aren't ridiculous (which we, as a subforum, tend not to be)

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I saw some talk on the main page, but even if SEP is in effect, it's mainly for the main thread. I can't imagine Ian, Randy and Midlo would SEP in here...as long as we aren't ridiculous (which we, as a subforum, tend not to be)

Pretty much. We're trying to cater to everyone here. Amateur hobbyists have the banter thread in the main forum and the subforum threads devoted to the tropics and the hard core science nerdy stuff goes in the main thread.

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