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Mid-Atlantic tropical thread


Ian

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stationary fronts aren't tropical. hasn't that been the cause for 2 of our heaviest rainfall events over that last 5-10 years or so?

june 06 wasn't tropical at all... last yr was certainly at least partially aided by lee. plus we had irene etc. we tend to get at least one or two good dumpings a year from tropical stuff i'd say.

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june 06 wasn't tropical at all... last yr was certainly at least partially aided by lee. plus we had irene etc. we tend to get at least one or two good dumpings a year from tropical stuff i'd say.

I knew the second i posted that i should have thrown Lee in there as a counter example. Some of those were so hit or miss as far as who really got nailed.

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Ian you are right. Usually you get 1 or 2 systems a year that pass close to the East Coast and/or actually bring us a decent rain. The situation is growing a bit more interesting at the very end of the month with the expected pattern and of course peaking tropical season. There are also some analog years, like 2006, that had something at the end of August. For personal reasons, I hope the end of August is bone dry and warm. ;)

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Ian you are right. Usually you get 1 or 2 systems a year that pass close to the East Coast and/or actually bring us a decent rain. The situation is growing a bit more interesting at the very end of the month with the expected pattern and of course peaking tropical season. There are also some analog years, like 2006, that had something at the end of August. For personal reasons, I hope the end of August is bone dry and warm. ;)

Always nice when you and I are on the same page.

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My source says things should get active soon

MJO is going to be favorable for development/intensification and the synoptic pattern will be favorable for an East Coast landfall. I'm telling people +\- 5 days around Aug 31. By next Wednesday, it will be obvious on the models
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My source says things should get active soon

Your source is definitely correct that models will be a little behind on this potential. I agree that the very end of the month would support something coming close to the East Coast. I'm not sure the pattern will be as ideal as Irene but this period is notable in the analogs if something were to come along in the Atlantic.

I am hoping the idea is wrong altogether. I will be at the beach in his forecast interval! :(

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The MJO is currently in phase 1 so it should be in phase 3 by 10 days. Phases 2-3 are pretty good for rapid intensification based on this study.

http://typhoon.atmos...otzbach2012.pdf

post-70-0-23219000-1344872525_thumb.png

It also tells you what to look for in terms of velocity potential. We certainly should have enhanced convection in the tropical Atlantic which increases the chances of development so Mapgirl's source may not be quite on the level of JB or Ji. I'm not sold on the east coast but it's way to early to know where any storm might go. Plus, we don't yet have a storm. If the Canadian model with its high bias for storms doesn't pick up on something soon, even with the favorable MJO, I'd be hesitant to jump unless of course a system looks like it is forming on satellite.

HM, your beach trip probably is the biggest and best factor for improving the chances of a storm hitting the east coast.

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