Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 No public forecast issued on board begets no ballz in pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 No public forecast issued on board begets no ballz in pants i told you...i like the #s you threw out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 i told you...i like the #s you threw out there So you've got 100+ at BDL both Wed/thurs.. Nice. i guarantee you Ryan won't. He 'll have 98 tomorrow and 100 thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 So you've got 100+ at BDL both Wed/thurs.. Nice. i guarantee you Ryan won't. He 'll have 98 tomorrow and 100 thurs i like ryan's #s too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I think it may even be a little more than an outside shot, especially if that low closes off. June convective rains can really dump. Just get that low to cut west and high dews/convection in here and you'll get your wish If it happens it happens, Still drying out from what we have had so far this month, The container garden is loving it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 KFS for BDL High temp Wed 100 High temp Thurs 102 High Temp Fri 97 4pm dewpoint Wed 69 Thurs 65 BDL Wednesday: 98 Thursday: 100 20Z dew point Wednesday: 68 Thursday: 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 So you've got 100+ at BDL both Wed/thurs.. Nice. i guarantee you Ryan won't. He 'll have 98 tomorrow and 100 thurs It's frightening your ability to take someones posts and figure out what they're forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 It's frightening your ability to take someones posts and figure out what they're forecasting. Or regurgitate your texts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Why does downsloping cause mixing to be superadiabatic? I'm asking physically..it doesn't make a lot of sense in my head. Compression warms the air dry adiabatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Why does downsloping cause mixing to be superadiabatic? I'm asking physically..it doesn't make a lot of sense in my head. Compression warms the air dry adiabatically. It's possible to also heat that air that has been compressed, via the sun. We see that a lot in March and April on NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 It's possible to also heat that air that has been compressed, via the sun. We see that a lot in March and April on NW flow. Downsloping (plus turbulent mixing) ensures you're at 9.8C/KM (away from Tolland). Include intense solar heating and you're able to go super adiabatic near the bottom of the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 It's possible to also heat that air that has been compressed, via the sun. We see that a lot in March and April on NW flow. Right...it makes more sense to talk about insolation causing a superadiabtic lapse rate in the low-levels than it does to talk about compression. If we already mixing dry to 850...how is compression doing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Downsloping (plus turbulent mixing) ensures you're at 9.8C/KM (away from Tolland). Include intense solar heating and you're able to go super adiabatic near the bottom of the boundary layer. Yeah exactly. Spring is a classic example of that when the folks in the Berkshires can be 10-12F cooler than BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Downsloping (plus turbulent mixing) ensures you're at 9.8C/KM (away from Tolland). Include intense solar heating and you're able to go super adiabatic near the bottom of the boundary layer. good example of that on a lot of the soundings showing up for thur - you can see those 11-12c/km LRs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Downsloping (plus turbulent mixing) ensures you're at 9.8C/KM (away from Tolland). Include intense solar heating and you're able to go super adiabatic near the bottom of the boundary layer. basically...we are assuming in areas outside of downslope that they are not getting a perfect dry rate...but they are still superadiabatic near the ground...so it effectively becomes dry. Areas that are downsloping are right at dry...and the superadiabatic lapse in the low-levels is causing them to exceed effective dry to 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Right...it makes more sense to talk about insolation causing a superadiabtic lapse rate in the low-levels than it does to talk about compression. If we already mixing dry to 850...how is compression doing anything? Well you are taking that compressed air and actually heating it more. That will actually help raise mixing heights just a bit since you are superadiabatic and the parcel is able to bust into the inversion layer a little higher up in the column. So you have air forced and compressed down a mountainside ensuring adiabatic lapse rates and now intense solar heating from the June sun. It's a good question though. That's my thought anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Well you are taking that compressed air and actually heating it more. That will actually help raise mixing heights just a bit since you are superadiabatic and the parcel is able to bust into the inversion layer a little higher up in the column. So you have air forced and compressed down a mountainside ensuring adiabatic lapse rates and now intense solar heating from the June sun. It's a good question though. That's my thought anyways. I wonder if and how much downslope can raise the inversion above 850 if we are only talking about several hundred feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Well you are taking that compressed air and actually heating it more. That will actually help raise mixing heights just a bit since you are superadiabatic and the parcel is able to bust into the inversion layer a little higher up in the column. So you have air forced and compressed down a mountainside ensuring adiabatic lapse rates and now intense solar heating from the June sun. It's a good question though. That's my thought anyways. How far out from a mountain (or whatever) does that effect reach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Well you are taking that compressed air and actually heating it more. That will actually help raise mixing heights just a bit since you are superadiabatic and the parcel is able to bust into the inversion layer a little higher up in the column. So you have air forced and compressed down a mountainside ensuring adiabatic lapse rates and now intense solar heating from the June sun. It's a good question though. That's my thought anyways. Actually what it more or less equates to, his lapse rates in the lower levels that are higher than what we would expect with SW winds. So basically the air would probably be close to dry adiabatic of we had SW winds, lets say. Now, you are taking air and compressing the flow which ensures dry adiabatic flow and throwing solar insolation into the mix. I don't think it would be super adiabatic if it were not from the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 10.86" in 1917. Currently sitting on 7.99", good for 6th. Farmington record is 13.96" in 1998. They've measured somewhat more than my 5.52" to date, but are probably still short of the halfway mark. No way it gets broken (I hope!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 4km NAM...that's 100F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 basically...we are assuming in areas outside of downslope that they are not getting a perfect dry rate...but they are still superadiabatic near the ground...so it effectively becomes dry. Areas that are downsloping are right at dry...and the superadiabatic lapse in the low-levels is causing them to exceed effective dry to 850? Yeah turbulent mixing will get you close to 9.8 but the downslope assist can make sure you keep 9.8C/km in lowest km plus solar insolation and you can really bake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 How far out from a mountain (or whatever) does that effect reach? I think it depends on wind velocity and elevation. Out west, Chinooks last hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Actually what it more or less equates to, his lapse rates in the lower levels that are higher than what we would expect with SW winds. So basically the air would probably be close to dry adiabatic of we had SW winds, lets say. Now, you are taking air and compressing the flow which ensures dry adiabatic flow and throwing solar insolation into the mix. I don't think it would be super adiabatic if it were not from the sun. Yeah it can't be but you're able to ensure a deep mixed layer at 9.8 c/km plus super adiabatic near the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Yeah it can't be but you're able to ensure a deep mixed layer at 9.8 c/km plus super adiabatic near the ground. Too bad we don't live in GC or Mt Tolland where every day is super adiabatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Too bad we don't live in GC or Mt Tolland where every day is super adiabatic. Only in winter. In summer every day is sub-dry adiabatic. BDL is summer's verification spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 I think BOX screwed up heat advisory. HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 103 DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. Mean upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 FWIW I actually agree with Ryan for BDL. Not like this is some contest with wide range of temps or anything. I think I'll go with 97 tomorrow though for tomorrow..just to be a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Should be interesting to see power consumption Weds & Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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