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May 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Crazy! I wonder what their climate is like...similar to ours perhaps?

Yup. I was born in Bosnia. I grew up in Germany tho. THe climate is very similar, however they have no humidity/dews are always low! Basically temperatures can heat up to 100f during the day and fall to the 40s overnight. It's amazing. Lots of nature, and it's very hilly. Here are a few pictures. Views from my house are amazing, I can see the whole city! It's somewhat like Denver, Co.

post-1161-0-69825200-1337036963_thumb.jp

post-1161-0-75486500-1337036978_thumb.jp

post-1161-0-23159700-1337036994_thumb.jp

post-1161-0-94295500-1337037004_thumb.jp

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Crazy dewpoint spread right now between lakeside and inland. Lake breezes do much more than cool an airmass!

CLE-HOPKINS MOCLDY 65 31 28 N3 30.04R

CLE-LAKEFRONT PTCLDY 59 50 72 W3 30.01R

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Crazy dewpoint spread right now between lakeside and inland. Lake breezes do much more than cool an airmass!

CLE-HOPKINS MOCLDY 65 31 28 N3 30.04R

CLE-LAKEFRONT PTCLDY 59 50 72 W3 30.01R

That's interesting... at UGN airport it is 65° 33°, which is 4 miles from the lake. and

at a Weatherbug site about 1/2 miles from the lake in Waukegan it is 67° 32°.

Lake Erie must be "acting" different then Michigan.

Down to 60° at 9:15pm.

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Me thinks the SPC slight risk this afternoon is going to struggle mightily. I simply do not see the oepratioal GFS/NAM dews of mid/upper 60s panning out across southern WI into N IL.

Low level parcel trajectories based on the 00z run of the NAM last night were from eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, where dews mixed out to the mid and upper 40s yesterday afternoon, which suggests even low 50s dewpoints might be a stretch. Latest HRR has greatly backed off on shower coverage in northern IL.

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Me thinks the SPC slight risk this afternoon is going to struggle mightily. I simply do not see the oepratioal GFS/NAM dews of mid/upper 60s panning out across southern WI into N IL.

Per local discos, the projected dews were more in the 55-60 range, and most of those discos expected them to bust, so this isn't a big surprise really, and it looked like a long shot from the start.

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Not sure why I'm in a Slight Risk today. There are large T/Td spreads here, and I'm not seeing anything that looks like an inverted V sounding. With the steep lapse rates, I suppose some marginally severe wind gusts could occur with a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Today reminds me a bit of 5/17/08 in that regard, but with today's activity expected to arrive after dark, I don't expect any strong winds to mix down to the surface here.

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Per local discos, the projected dews were more in the 55-60 range, and most of those discos expected them to bust, so this isn't a big surprise really, and it looked like a long shot from the start.

Steep mid-level lapse rates are there but the moisture source is vertically diluted and in a narrow ribbon. Anything that forms will be high based. I'm having a hard time seeing how anything will go severe in western Michigan given SW flow off the lake.

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Low level parcel trajectories based on the 00z run of the NAM last night were from eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, where dews mixed out to the mid and upper 40s yesterday afternoon, which suggests even low 50s dewpoints might be a stretch. Latest HRR has greatly backed off on shower coverage in northern IL.

Agreed. RAP had that nailed....only dews in the 40s to near 50-52 across a small area. We will see. I was doing my forecast disco for AWOC today...and was shocked at the stark differences...decided to forecast severe down in the SE. Glad I did...not seeing much of a threat this afternoon up that way.

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12z GFS is a torch through the entire run...

We would easily be looking at 70s-90s through the entire run after Wednesday/Thursday locally.

It's certainly possible if we can finally and fully shake off the Greenland Block. Beyond that, it's just a matter of if things will be warm/wet or warm/dry.

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