Damage In Tolland Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 every time the models show a warmup, coastalwx posts about it potentially being muted Next week looks pretty damn torchy for everyone from Wed onwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 When's the climo date for warnings there? Could it be later in the season? But even the apple orchards have blossoms. Time to throw climo out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Next week looks pretty damn torchy for everyone from Wed onwards What's your call chief? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 What was your high? Impressive cold banked up west of the CT valley. The high of 47.7 was at 1:13a.m. It was about 41* or so when I came down at 5:30a.m. Can't figure out why my station has fallen off the pdfamily site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Hasn't stopped snowing in almost 7 hours now...have a whopping 0.5" at 950ft on elevated surfaces. However just up the road is a much different story. Exciting and nice to see snow in the air. I just can't believe we won't get our of the mid 30s for afternoon highs. I can tell it's impressively cold up high in the H85-H7 level where the orographic lift is forming the snow because snow growth is quite good. It's not needles or grauple but real upslope flakes that would be fluff in January. downslope here, pushing 60. 60 on the vineyard. No snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Tuesday might be crappy it appears..or at least not the nicest day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 What's your call chief? 3 days at least and maybe 4 of 75-80 interior SNE You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 3 days at least and maybe 4 if 75-80 interior SNE You? So you are picking a station closest to your climo like BDL? Since both of you downslope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 But even the apple orchards have blossoms. Time to throw climo out the window. leaves now Scoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I could see a couple of days at least getting there especially in parts of CT. I just never like those stupid wavy fronts near SNE. I wouldn't be shocked if a day or 2 featured CT in its own climate zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 So you are picking a station closest to your climo like BDL? Since both of you downslope? Your forecast please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 leaves now Scoot I'm just curious. I'm pretty sure mother nature is laughing at climo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Your forecast please? It's tough. I'll say BDL has the best shot of 2 days of 75+. Can't go higher right now. Might even be too bullish if clouds screw it up, or se-s winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 But even the apple orchards have blossoms. Time to throw climo out the window. Yeah I was just wondering if that's the reason...BTV has been in the same boat and have been stressing that just because a warning isn't out for interior VT or Dacks, doesn't mean it won't be cold. Someone also looking at BOXs warnings might think they don't have to worry in SNH because nothings issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 What warm up? spring 2010, summer 2010, spring 2011, summer 2011, last march, april, next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 spring 2010, summer 2010, spring 2011, summer 2011, last march, april, next week... I don't get it. Other than telling weenies it wouldn't be 110F every day, when did I say it was muted? Talking about pros and cons of warm ups and actually saying it's not going to happen are two different things. The only thing I was wrong on, was the rain about 3 weeks ago and even during then, I acknowledged that it may not happen. Other than that, it's worked out. If a warm up is clearly on the horizon..I'll mention it. I guess you missed my post from 3 days ago saying there could be 2-3 very warm days next week. However, that got muted over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I don't get it. Other than telling weenies it wouldn't be 110F every day, when did I say it was muted? Talking about pros and cons of warm ups and actually saying it's not going to happen are two different things. The only thing I was wrong on, was the rain about 3 weeks ago and even during then, I acknowledged that it may not happen. Other than that, it's worked out. If a warm up is clearly on the horizon..I'll mention it. I guess you missed my post from 3 days ago saying there could be 2-3 very warm days next week. However, that got muted over the last few days. i guess i'm overreacting to your reaction toward the weenies. thurs-fri look hot to me, but i'm also not near boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 i guess i'm overreacting to your reaction toward the weenies. thurs-fri look hot to me, but i'm also not near boston Yeah it could be near NYC, but you're right in that SNE could be in a different world. I mentioned CT possibly having its own climate zone due to just that. Trust me I don't want crappy weather, but I guess when you live here in April and May..you sort of have to be on gaurd for that. FWIW I'm not saying drizzle and fog horns the whole time either. I could see 2-3 days eeking out good weather hopefully..even with e-se winds. I'm just not sure of the days and days of 80+ that Kevin is thinking. Maybe Thursday or Friday up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Yeah it could be near NYC, but you're right in that SNE could be in a different world. I mentioned CT possibly having its own climate zone due to just that. Trust me I don't want crappy weather, but I guess when you live here in April and May..you sort of have to be on gaurd for that. FWIW I'm not saying drizzle and fog horns the whole time either. I could see 2-3 days eeking out good weather hopefully..even with e-se winds. I'm just not sure of the days and days of 80+ that Kevin is thinking. Maybe Thursday or Friday up here? 3-4 days of 75-80 has turned into days and days of 80's..? This is how the KFS forecasts always get changed around from what it actually issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Yeah it could be near NYC, but you're right in that SNE could be in a different world. I mentioned CT possibly having its own climate zone due to just that. Trust me I don't want crappy weather, but I guess when you live here in April and May..you sort of have to be on gaurd for that. FWIW I'm not saying drizzle and fog horns the whole time either. I could see 2-3 days eeking out good weather hopefully..even with e-se winds. I'm just not sure of the days and days of 80+ that Kevin is thinking. Maybe Thursday or Friday up here? the models keep bouncing the front around.... i wish just one of these annoying wavy front setups would deliver good mcs rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Little OT but driving through the HFD area, leaf out is pretty much 100% Whole different world down here in terms of foliage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Little OT but driving through the HFD area, leaf out is pretty much 100% Whole different world down here in terms of foliage. Come to.uconn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Had some weenie flakes in the air here during the past hour. Still overcast, windy, and cold. Different world out here compared to most of SNE. Already down to freezing at 2K in Peru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Come to.uconn Lol I bet with some elevation there a difference lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Had some weenie flakes in the air here during the past hour. Still overcast, windy, and cold. Different world out here compared to most of SNE. Already down to freezing at 2K in Peru. Congrats, Mitch. I've been keeping any eye for them, but I haven't spotted anything. Sun's actually come out over the last hour or so. Not much of an impact on temps though, as they continue to tick downward. 37.4/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Little OT but driving through the HFD area, leaf out is pretty much 100% Whole different world down here in terms of foliage. AWT . Every tree has leaves everywhere in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 AWT . Every tree has leaves everywhere in CT Eh. Hartford does. I'm down near Haddam now and it's about 25% full leaves 50% tiny leaves and 25% big buds. I'll update when I'm back on the shoreline. Guarantee it's less than that there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 AWT . Every tree has leaves everywhere in CT The vast majority are out here, too. Of course, they're damned cold 36.6/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Back home and it's about 50% small leaves 50% buds so the shoreline still has maybe 10 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 My own thought for next week somewhat echo these from NCEP's mid range chit-chat: "...WHAT DOES HAVE PROMISE...IN THE FORECAST...IS FOR RISING HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS VALLEY AND A STORM TRACK THAT KEEPS THE ORGANIZED MIGRATORY WAVE PATTERN AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE(S) GENERALLY NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR DAYS 5-7. VOJTESAK..." Both the CPC/CDC are tightly clustered around a -1.5 drop in the PNA standard deviation starting now and on through the fist week of May. It ends up around -1.5 or so. When the majority of the operational runs types settle into solutions the bare resemblance to the majority teleconnector means, this usually takes over determinism in lieu of individual outliers. One thing I have been noticing about the Euro operatoinal run's D6+ time frames, it keeps repeating the same bias of taking these innocuous, almsot non-definable "dents" in the geopotential contours at D4.5, and quite literally behaving as if to spontaneously emerge them into the deeply carved out cold NW Atlantic lows. If you look at the D5-8 span of the current 12z Euro, its doing it yet again; an almost non-discerned perturbation in the flow up near Lake Superior in one 24 hour period, turns into a negatively tilting trough as it leaves NE, then into a 3 contoured closed feature just S of NS. The affect of having this bias is to have deep features that "never seem to get inside of D5". Anyway, the reason I bring it up is because I believe that ridge/eastern height response next week is being unfairly damped in the northern periphery by spurious trough incursions supplied by phantom deepening (Euro). That, combined with the GFS having a progressivity bias native to its own cookie jar of frustrating annoyances, might be masking some of the the ridge's ultimate amplitude. It seems to me we bottom out - so to speak - tonight through Sunday morning, then start gaining 4-7F per day through next Thursday. As a mean high, I like 62 Monday, 65 Tusday, 72 Wednesday and 84 Thurs, and mid 80s ahead of some kind of fropa on Friday. I also suspect this currect CAA is the deepest until next Autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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