Met1985 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Well taking Foothills advise figured i would start a thread on this storm. I have been looking at the models and looks like the Eastern part of North Carolina could get a substantial amount of rain when this low pulls up through the Atlantic and into the Northeast. Looks like the Eastern part of NC could get crushed with very heavy rainfall which will help a lot with the drought down there. As the low bombs out the low is really going to intensify and the winds are going to be blowing and i mean blowing hard. This is were it COULD get interesting for the mountains of North Carolina NE Tennessee, Part of Virginia, and almost all of West Virginia with snow. The farther west this low is the better chance for a snow storm especially in Western North Carolina and NE Tennessee. I thing West Virginia will get it no matter what especially if you live say 3000 feet up or more in elevation. Looks like the timing for the snow may be very early Monday Morning through the day possibly into the evening hours.There is still a lot this system has to do bu it is fixing to get ramped up fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NWS GSP is forecasting a possible 1" accumulation for Avery County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Already, the RUC is the most realistic along with NAM. Its time to look intensely at the vapor, and the baroclinic leaf is about to start for one thing (rain and cold cloud tops pushing north through Ga, Al). Also, the incoming northern vort is more intense on vapor and dropping nearly due south through eastern Dakotas, so small errors on models like this will have a huge impact in the next 24 hours. I see a more west phase, similar to NAM at 18z. By 24 hours, already most of central GA to most of Carolinas are enveloped like the NAM with extreme divergence going on, so some severe at the back edge tomrrow afternoon in GA especially, with the rapidly falling heights intercepting moisture thats stalled in the lee of the Apps. Heavy rain rates will pound the eastern Carolinas, and by then, that area will probably have already had several inches of rain before it pushes north and northwest. Its a fun system, by far the funnest, most exciting system for me since over a year ago, beating anything this last "winter". By Monday morning if the NAM is right, and I'm leaning more toward it mostly, there will be a true blizzard developing except surface temps won't be that low. Plenty of winds in western Maryland and all of the mountains of West VA and eastern Ohio, where 50mph is shown in gusts. The low pulls in and stacks in western MD, eastern West Va area, with a tight circulation around it. 9 Full contours at 850. Very impressive! I've seen storms like this blow up quickly on the east coast and catch places off guard. I think when all is said and done, there will be severe, maybe even tornadoes (very concerned northeast Ga, western SC central NC late Sunday), then heavy Apps snow (over 1 foot common, some places 2 feet) which will bring down trees. And high winds Monday many areas of Apps and east and south of Apps. Flash flood thanks to intense rates of rain in northeast NC, most of central and east Va to DC/De, se PA and NJ. Then hard freeze Tue AM or Wed AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 18z GFS is looking like NAM, still slightly east, but has stretched heavy snow further south which matches what usually happens at 5h in this type of cutoff. One thing I'm concerned about for Ga and Carolinas Sunday afternoon is the extreme divergence coming right into the lee, combined with the tilting cutoff. Usually, thats equated with severe for Atlanta GSP to CLT or CAE regions this time of year. So anywhere in there tomorrow afternoon watch for hailers or even possible twisters, but some type of severe is probable. The storm gets its act together and slowly works to near DC, and stalls. The snow will come down hard in all the Apps it appears, straight down to northeast TN and just north of Asheville Monday. Northern mountains of NC could get into the good stuff as well but that area is a question mark, if the further west/sw solutions occur, then it quickly turns to blizzard conditions in Avery and Watauga areas Monday. West Virginia and the mountains of southwest VA are a no brainer....big snow. And high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Wow just checked back in and looking at the Euro and the GFS they look a lot more colder and looks like the East is going to get drenched in this one. This low should really take off tonight and just clobber the Coast with lots of rain. and wind. Wow if you are on the Outer Banks watch out it is going to get crazy out there with the heavy rain and wind. Several inches of rain possible along the coast which would be a very welcome sight down there. Also the other aspect of this storm is the wintery kind. Wow as someone else has pointed out Winter Storm Watches out already up in the upper Appalachian Mountains. The Euro and the GFS has trended colder the next 24 to 48 hours were is i am a little more confident that Western North Carolina Mountains and in Eastern Tennessee could see some snowfall and maybe several inches higher up above 3500 feet. Still this thing is going to take off tonight and rapidly develop but very interesting developments to say the least! Also big thanks Foothills! I really appreciate the analysis and help. I agree this storm is going to be very active and very fun! This is way more exciting than anything we have see this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Nice to see you posting Robert! Wow if it were only Jan. To my untrained eyes it looks like with a small shift here & there the Mnts. could get a decent snow. I guess it's best that it doesn't & that is hard for a snow lover to say. Lots of havoc at this time of year with something of that nature. Some little nuggets in the GSP mid term below. .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 206 PM SATURDAY...AS STRONG/DEEP CYCLONE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...WRAP-AROUND/NW FLOW MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. STRONG ORTHOGONAL FLOW ACTING ON THIS MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS. AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE LIKELY FALLING TO AROUND 2500 FEET BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FEET. ALTHOUGH I/M NOT SURE WE WILL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMS ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AN HWO MENTION...CONSIDERING THE LATE SEASON NATURE OF THE EVENT. ADVECTIVE FREEZE CONCERNS WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAJOR VALLEYS SHOULD STAY WELL-MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL ISSUES. HOWEVER... LOCATIONS AT AROUND 3000 FEET WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING TEMPS...WHILE AREAS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL EASILY SEE FREEZING TEMPS. NW FLOW PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY...LEAVING THE WIND AS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT BACKED OFF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE H8 WINDS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE DEEP EASTERN TROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CYCLONE STILL MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... THE SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MANY AREAS WELL MIXED. SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL SEE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD VALLEY FREEZING TEMPS SEEMS A LITTLE IFFY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO HOWEVER. OTHERWISE...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS ITS PROGRESSION OFF THE EAST COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I can barely believe my eyes...It's April 21st. Next snows start to fly in only five months in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 I can barely believe my eyes...It's April 21st. Next snows start to fly in only five months in the mountains. Lol that a good way of putting it. I was thing you no some people may see more snow with this one storm than they had the whole winter and ironically it comes after summer arrived in March and then we have several freezes the beginning of April now some may see a huge wet snowstorm or even blizzard and we are going to see another round of freezing temps. Just wow at all this crazy weather/patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 The low is really starting to flex it's muscle. It is starting to pull in Gulf and Atlantic moisture which should really start to increase the coverage of rain and really help with deepening the low itself. Things should start to get interesting tonight. I have already heard reports of people in South Georgia getting up to 9 inches of rain today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 There's a real slow moving thunderstorm up here in NC west of Fayetteville that's dumped over 6.5" (GR3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Pre frontal rain event is setting up shop west of hwy 1, into central VA, likely through DC. Makes sense given a parent track along the inner banks into the tidewater. Thought we may have been online for the frontal convergence here, but a track almost right overhead puts the best theta e a little west. Still expecting around 1.5 locally. Oxford up towards Arlington VA, maybe some 3" amounts. No real evidence of gulf coast convention robbing or adding to totals. Classic track, a little weak, but still a sub 990 riding up and into the MA. GFS pretty consistent on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 <540dm @ H5 for ~48hrs, not bad for mid - late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Don't think any models are handling the southern stream correctly yet. RUC is close but still not quite there versus reality. There's a good inflection point (pivot axis) where the rain will rotate around. Roughly ATL region is the center overnight, so points east will eventually fill in. The RUC has intensity increasing over most of SC by morning and into NC has it really exploding during the day. Very beneficial rains Gulf Coast, much of GA and hopefully central and western SC can get hit, even though strange things happen a lot there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Don't think any models are handling the southern stream correctly yet. RUC is close but still not quite there versus reality. There's a good inflection point (pivot axis) where the rain will rotate around. Roughly ATL region is the center overnight, so points east will eventually fill in. The RUC has intensity increasing over most of SC by morning and into NC has it really exploding during the day. Very beneficial rains Gulf Coast, much of GA and hopefully central and western SC can get hit, even though strange things happen a lot there. You took the words right out of my mouth I'll be happy if we get anything over .25 Nice to see you posting Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Don't think any models are handling the southern stream correctly yet. RUC is close but still not quite there versus reality. There's a good inflection point (pivot axis) where the rain will rotate around. Roughly ATL region is the center overnight, so points east will eventually fill in. The RUC has intensity increasing over most of SC by morning and into NC has it really exploding during the day. Very beneficial rains Gulf Coast, much of GA and hopefully central and western SC can get hit, even though strange things happen a lot there. 0z NAM has a crazy looking "boomarang look" bringing the precip shield back into Ohio as you alluded to in a post on your website or here. Any chance this jogs back further west? By the looks of its position on the radar in the gulf, the NAM looks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Don't think any models are handling the southern stream correctly yet. RUC is close but still not quite there versus reality. There's a good inflection point (pivot axis) where the rain will rotate around. Roughly ATL region is the center overnight, so points east will eventually fill in. The RUC has intensity increasing over most of SC by morning and into NC has it really exploding during the day. Very beneficial rains Gulf Coast, much of GA and hopefully central and western SC can get hit, even though strange things happen a lot there. Just looking at radar and water vapor, I'm starting to buy into the idea that significant precip will be much farther west than what was predicted as recent as the afternoon discussions. The next 48 hours is going to be wild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Just looking at radar and water vapor, I'm starting to buy into the idea that significant precip will be much farther west than what was predicted as recent as the afternoon discussions. The next 48 hours is going to be wild... I secend that. Also as Foothills said earlier the more west the precip is and the further west the low comes the better chance of Western North Carolina and North East Tennessee getting some heavy wet snow. Noaa for my area is buying a rain to snow changover tomorrow night. Will be wild ended and darn fun to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 0z NAM has a crazy looking "boomarang look" bringing the precip shield back into Ohio as you alluded to in a post on your website or here. Any chance this jogs back further west? By the looks of its position on the radar in the gulf, the NAM looks right. Just looking at radar and water vapor, I'm starting to buy into the idea that significant precip will be much farther west than what was predicted as recent as the afternoon discussions. The next 48 hours is going to be wild... this is tricky. the newly released NAM is about the same, 9 contours closed at 7h and 850, and about the same location. The models have missed the cutoffs in this region before, but I'd guess something between NAM and GFS is likely, so a compromise, but probably closer to NAM since most are trending that way, and it looks to have support of actual obs today. I don't know how far west it gets, but eastern Ohio I've said is probably the western most, and extreme ne Tn and nw NC. By the way , for central NC even down to CLT or just north of there Monday and esp. toward GSO and RDU, watch out Monday afternoon. All models have enough moisture wrapping in during the day for low based cumulus hail, sleet or showers. Wet snow can't be ruled out toward Winston or GSO. Lapse rates will be insane. For western VA east of the mountains, the NAM still insists on good wrap around making it east of the mountains so Blacksburg Radford down to Galax probably atleast some snow or mix or . The heavy wet snow still is on tap for the high mountains just east of Charleston WVa. Mtns of West Virginia will really rack up if the NAM isn't blowing this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 this is tricky. the newly released NAM is about the same, 9 contours closed at 7h and 850, and about the same location. The models have missed the cutoffs in this region before, but I'd guess something between NAM and GFS is likely, so a compromise, but probably closer to NAM since most are trending that way, and it looks to have support of actual obs today. I don't know how far west it gets, but eastern Ohio I've said is probably the western most, and extreme ne Tn and nw NC. By the way , for central NC even down to CLT or just north of there Monday and esp. toward GSO and RDU, watch out Monday afternoon. All models have enough moisture wrapping in during the day for low based cumulus hail, sleet or showers. Wet snow can't be ruled out toward Winston or GSO. Lapse rates will be insane. For western VA east of the mountains, the NAM still insists on good wrap around making it east of the mountains so Blacksburg Radford down to Galax probably atleast some snow or mix or . The heavy wet snow still is on tap for the high mountains just east of Charleston WVa. Mtns of West Virginia will really rack up if the NAM isn't blowing this setup. Still, an amazing storm to watch. So, do you think this will be a typical late season storm(loosely termed) or will it challenge the record books? If the NAM(which you mention looks a bit overdone) comes close to verifying and the coast gets hammered, looks to me like it may be memorable for many. Is Annapolis is danger of flooding w/ this storm's approach in relation to the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Still, an amazing storm to watch. So, do you think this will be a typical late season storm(loosely termed) or will it challenge the record books? If the NAM(which you mention looks a bit overdone) comes close to verifying and the coast gets hammered, looks to me like it may be memorable for many. Is Annapolis is danger of flooding w/ this storm's approach in relation to the bay? considering the trends I think it will be memorable. For April its not uncommon to get some snow in the mtns but this much is a lot. I still won't bite on NAM totally, but a compromise of it and GFS, but I know GFS has been slowly trending that way. Looks like eastern half of Va will get up to 3" of rain but GFS is a little less and places more on southern New England and Long Island. As usual some of these big events comes down to the last minute. I'd love to see NAM score a big coup on this one. (even though ECMWF had it 10 days out...which is about a first for it in a long time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 What do the latest total precip maps look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I look at the satellite over and over and still looks like there is a circulation in Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I would not mind if we miss most of the QPF Sunday this far back in NC. There has been a slug of persistent thundershowers from North Wilkesboro,NC to Hillsville, VA all day. (Or yesterday since it's past midnight). Already closing in with 1.5inches. And the last rain event was near 2-3 inches in north-west NC after that dry stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 By the way , for central NC even down to CLT or just north of there Monday and esp. toward GSO and RDU, watch out Monday afternoon. All models have enough moisture wrapping in during the day for low based cumulus hail, sleet or showers. Wet snow can't be ruled out toward Winston or GSO. Lapse rates will be insane. Interesting considering my current forecast for Monday from RAH. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Breezy, with a west wind between 11 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Interesting considering my current forecast for Monday from RAH. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Breezy, with a west wind between 11 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Looks a little warm to me. Depends on cloud cover this time of year, but GFS has about 52 to 54 degrees for the high RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Interesting considering my current forecast for Monday from RAH. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Breezy, with a west wind between 11 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. I am east of the mountains too and here's mine. Different NWS...difference of 8 degrees and more clouds. I guess a instability shower in the evening could bring something interesting down with the biting wind. Monday Overcast. High of 54F. Windy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 339 am EDT sun Apr 22 2012 Tonight: maximum middle level height falls of 150-200 meters/12 hours...in association with the potent northern stream disturbance...are forecast over central NC early tonight. While the warm conveyor deep moisture plume and mesoscale forcing will have departed to the northeast of central NC with the deepening surface cyclone by that time...the strong qg middle level forcing will maintain saturation aloft sufficient for bergeron...particularly before midnight...then lingering overnight north of Highway 64 where those locales may be grazed by the southernmost lobe of a developing trowal on the west side of the gradually occluding cyclone. Interestingly...forecast soundings accordingly indicate periods of continued sufficient saturation aloft for bergeron/Crystal growth...with a melting level down to around 1000-1500 feet above ground level over the northwest Piedmont between 09-12z Monday...suggestive of a conditional non-zero probability of a few wet flakes mixing in provided precipitation indeed continues that late into the night. However... forecast partial thicknesses crash into the indeterminate range...which is characterized by a steep lapse rate environment that climatology suggests rarely produces precipitation. For that reason...will carry only a slight chance of light rain during the late night hours. Lows in the upper 30s to lower to middle 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I really couldn't care less about a "few wet flakes." What I care about is the huge QPF bustola I see shaping up for much of the NC coastal plain, where we actually could have used even half of the promised 1.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Had .86" in the tube at 7:00 this morning. Over by the Wake Co. line 8 miles away, 2 stations had almost double that amount - that area was lucky enough to get some training thundershowers yesterday. A nice gentle light rain is falling now, after a period of moderate to heavy showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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