strongwxnc Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I plan to not see any rain this afternoon in mby, which sucks because the forecast was for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 One thing I'm concerned about for Ga and Carolinas Sunday afternoon is the extreme divergence coming right into the lee, combined with the tilting cutoff. Usually, thats equated with severe for Atlanta GSP to CLT or CAE regions this time of year. So anywhere in there tomorrow afternoon watch for hailers or even possible twisters, but some type of severe is possible. One thing I'm confused about is the severe weaher threat for Sunday afternoon. Front has moved through, gusty NW winds here already. Dewpoints in the 40's.......where is any severe weather supposed to come from today? Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks like the models are still going with rain changing to snow after midnight tonight and maybe several inches in the higher elevations. I am a little surprised that the coastal areas seem to be getting dry slotted. Very interesting but i think that will fill back in this morning. Also looks like the middle of the State is getting some very beneficial rains this morning. It will be interesting to see how tonight and tomorrow morning works out with the temps falling and the moisture coming back in. I also would think that the upslope effect would matter with having such strong NW winds coming in and helping rally ring out all the moisture against the mountains that comes across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Hmmm....I thought last night when going to bed that the precip would be much closer to the mountains/foothills than it currently is. Oh well...guess that's why I am the amateur. Got to admit, this reminds me so much of the storm 2 months ago where we barely missed out on a phase... Looking forward to an update from Robert later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 One thing I'm confused about is the severe weaher threat for Sunday afternoon. Front has moved through, gusty NW winds here already. Dewpoints in the 40's.......where is any severe weather supposed to come from today? Am I missing something? looks like the southern part moved faster, so here comes the dry punch. I also think the NAM is too far west so far so it will probably shift more east overall, like the GFS. Like Moto said, the sun will come out soon west of central Carolinas today and points west already, so the moisture will be gone when any good dynamics aloft arrive. Only had .06" here, but wasn't expecting much this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 So is it to early to say Bust? .22 here in Greenville NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 So is it to early to say Bust? .22 here in Greenville NC Unless that mass of heavier rain offshore gets up here its gonna be tough to get the 2-4" the NWS was saying we were going to get lol. I would say so far that this thing has been a HUGE bust here east of I-95 at least unless you are right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 lol @ this storm. I knew it wasn't going to be a big wash out, but I didn't expect the radar to be this disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Ya pretty disappointed in the way the low tracked and the heaviest rainfall seem to just ride up the coast and up into the NE. Strange system but it till be fun to see how the low coming from the west interacts with the low just east of us. Not much rain at all here. Just way to far south. I say it was a big bust for rainfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Big bust.....(.15") here so far for the event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 lol @ this storm. I knew it wasn't going to be a big wash out, but I didn't expect the radar to be this disappointing. It was a pretty nice soaker along about a 30-mile-wide corridor just west of I-95. But, overall, what a stinker of a storm in eastern NC! That's how droughts get started: events never seem to bust high; they always bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tennwxspot Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 lol @ this storm. I knew it wasn't going to be a big wash out, but I didn't expect the radar to be this disappointing. LOLWUT? Thats a pretty hefty amount of rain And you're not done either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It was a pretty nice soaker along about a 30-mile-wide corridor just west of I-95. But, overall, what a stinker of a storm in eastern NC! That's how droughts get started: events never seem to bust high; they always bust low. That's exactly what I thought this morning when I looked outside and everything was barely wet. There does seem to be a correlation between the start of drought conditions to busting the exact opposite of QPF forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It was a pretty nice soaker along about a 30-mile-wide corridor just west of I-95. But, overall, what a stinker of a storm in eastern NC! That's how droughts get started: events never seem to bust high; they always bust low. Its raining pretty good at the moment and we might be lucky and get a few periods like this throughout the day and squeeze a 1-1.5" total outta this thing by tonight.......still not the 2-4" NWS had us getting and we need all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 LOLWUT? Thats a pretty hefty amount of rain And you're not done either Unless something major shifts that second map is going to be flat out wrong.....I live right under the 3.2" bullseye in eastern NC and so far we have maybe got .30-.50" of rain and the heaviest rainfall is well offshore so I wouldnt put to much faith in that map. The local NWS office has lowered our forecast rainfall totals to around 1-1.5" and we will be lucky to see that I think. Most of Central NC has got less than a inch and will be lucky to see to much more based on trends and that is well less than they were forecast as well....so I think Widremann post is pretty much correct unless you are one fo the few that got under a storm last evening you are going to end up busting on the low side precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 We had some big rain totals here. We saw the opposite of all of you that busted. NWS only forecasted 1/3 to 2/3 rain totals for Southeast Georgia and 1-3 across Northeast Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm glad that we weren't suppose to get this much precip in the winter time only to have it bust this badly. Talk about disappointment then! Gonna take some sort of a miracle to reach the widespread 2 inches being called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Unless something major shifts that second map is going to be flat out wrong That second map isn't kosher anyway -- 18 hours since it was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Gonna take some sort of a miracle to reach the widespread 2 inches being called for. As long as the upper-low bowling ball is still south of us, there is room for faint hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 LOLWUT? Thats a pretty hefty amount of rain And you're not done either All of that was from a line of storms associated with the dying cold front. The first map you posted make it look a lot more exciting than it actually was. Storm totals from KRAX show just two narrow bands of heavier totals. The Triangle pretty much missed out on all of that. The main storm is not going to produce anything here. The big band of rain will be way too far east and won't really get started until VA northwards anyway. The blob that the models showed pretty much never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Must say, the appearance of the upper low on satellite is making me sit up and take notice. See how the high clouds have once again over-spread central and eastern NC. Notice the strong SE fetch evident on the low's north side, with moisture crashing into the coast. It could lead one to believe the afternoon might bring interesting developments. Must say I am also totally underwhelmed by what the radar is showing. You'd never know, from looking at a southeastern US radar loop, that such a potent upper low was even there. P.S. Still raining lightly at my house. .80" storm total so far, so if it ended now, it could have been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Must say, the appearance of the upper low on satellite is making me sit up and take notice. See how the high clouds have once again over-spread central and eastern NC. Notice the strong SE fetch evident on the low's north side, with moisture crashing into the coast. It could lead one to believe the afternoon might bring interesting developments. Must say I am also totally underwhelmed by what the radar is showing. You'd never know, from looking at a southeastern US radar loop, that such a potent upper low was even there. P.S. Still raining lightly at my house. .80" storm total so far, so if it ended now, it could have been worse. It'll be too little too late for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Must say, the appearance of the upper low on satellite is making me sit up and take notice. See how the high clouds have once again over-spread central and eastern NC. Notice the strong SE fetch evident on the low's north side, with moisture crashing into the coast. It could lead one to believe the afternoon might bring interesting developments. Must say I am also totally underwhelmed by what the radar is showing. You'd never know, from looking at a southeastern US radar loop, that such a potent upper low was even there. P.S. Still raining lightly at my house. .80" storm total so far, so if it ended now, it could have been worse. .39 here. Not nearly what I hoped for but I'll take whatever I can get.Only 1.28 for the month and 7.66 for the year, with the hot weather getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I had thought the southern-stream upper low was progged to hug the coast as it got absorbed into the northern trough. But it seems to be kicking out to sea on a course more easterly than northerly, and that's not helping. No luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I had thought the southern-stream upper low was progged to hug the coast as it got absorbed into the northern trough. But it seems to be kicking out to sea on a course more easterly than northerly, and that's not helping. No luck. Same as every other coastal for the past decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 We saw the northern edge of the rain shield stall our 30-50 miles to our south and east. Columbus did not pick up a DROP of rain! Areas near Albany, GA saw places pick up more than 2". I was afraid this would happen and informed my viewers about it over the past few days. However, I didn't expect to NOT pick up anything... Oh well, on to the next system down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Funny how that works I got a solid half inch, and my previous rain event had given me .02. Half inch seemed like a monsoon here, lol. Got to love those bands when they happen to go overhead, got to hate 'em when they don't I guess you were just 39 miles the wrong way. T Edit: Well, I quoted Candyman, but got the wrong quote. This editor is messing up on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Via Henry Margusity twitter account...Snowshoe web cam showing snow already. http://ow.ly/arnij Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I had thought the southern-stream upper low was progged to hug the coast as it got absorbed into the northern trough. But it seems to be kicking out to sea on a course more easterly than northerly, and that's not helping. No luck. Well I guess something is better than nothing but we will finish around .75-1" which means we only hit at best 50% of the low end forecasted amount so the word bust fits pretty well. At least for a few hrs there around lunchtime it looked the part outside to bad it only lasted a few hrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Via Henry Margusity twitter account...Snowshoe web cam showing snow already. http://ow.ly/arnij It's sticking, too. Nice! Mt. Mitchell should get some accumulating snow out of this, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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