SquatchinNY Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Getting real worried about nrn IL. The EMC WRF is a nightmare run for the area, and trends we're seeing seem to suggest that the threat may be higher than SPC is indicating. FYI I'm out chasing nrn IL right now. Could I have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Stayed in Topeka across the street from tsnow last night. Currently approaching Des Moines. We'll likely play the N. IL option on our way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 104 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 101 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF OSCEOLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 90 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. This will be of concern to se IA and the western IL region later if cells like this continue to develop. Note the speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 104 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 101 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF OSCEOLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 90 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. This will be of concern to se IA and the western IL region later if cells like this continue to develop. Note the speed. Wow. Good luck to anyone out chasing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Also a big question is will we get any sunshine at all? Before we were getting peaks of sun/filtered sunshine, but it is completely overcast. It has been overcast with "short" spells of hazy sun. Temperature has been stalled out for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Unless something fires close I'm staying here. Burnt out from the 14hr chase/7hr work day yesterday. Good luck to those who head out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Not a severe wx expert, but I told my brother (amateur chaser) to go find something to do in the southern burbs of the twin cities since it may still be a little wait. Twins are playing...Target Field can be a distraction...peeks of sun and warmed up real quick here IMBY (50 mi. SE of Twin cities) with some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Storms down here are really flying. AT 150 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CASSVILLE... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Looks like SPC may have requested a special balloon launch, data coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL IA...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 151856Z - 152030Z PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL IA AND SRN MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM A TRIPLE POINT 30 MILES SE OF SIOUX FALLS SD...WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING ENEWD FROM THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI. INHIBITION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO ERODE...WITH THE MODIFIED MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL 18Z RAOB ACCOUNTING FOR SFC OBS IN THE WARM SECTOR INDICATING UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH NEAR-ZERO CINH. A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF CONFLUENCE ALIGNS WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH SUPPORTING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE POTENTIALLY BECOMING RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 1930Z AND 21Z AS DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES TO THE EAST. ALREADY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MODEST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BANDS OF CUMULUS NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN WRN IA. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE STORMS FORM...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SVR GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-70 KT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY BACKED. ..COHEN.. 04/15/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Our window is probably over for Milwaukee. Unless those showers intensify in the next hour or so, they will only stabilize the atmosphere further. Yet another wasted opportunity in the couple years I've been on this forum. Threat will be both NW and SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Our window is probably over for Milwaukee. Unless those showers intensify in the next hour or so, they will only stabilize the atmosphere further. Yet another wasted opportunity in the couple years I've been on this forum. Threat will be both NW and SE of here. Relax...the cold front is still way out to the west. The threat may be higher farther west but it's not over yet for eastern WI. Barring rapid increase in coverage, those showers aren't going to do much to stabilize things. MKE's window should come this evening, possibly late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Can officially toss the GFS thermos for this event. NAM is going to be closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 230 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 330 PM CDT * AT 227 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR VERDIGRE...OR 31 MILES EAST OF ONEILL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED A VERY BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 1 MILE SOUTH OF VERDIGRE AT 227 PM. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... VERDIGRE...NIOBRARA...SANTEE AND VERDEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Hellacious cap on 18z DVN sounding. With the overcast skies over the area for the next few hours at least, going to need strong forced ascent to break through over northern IL and southern WI. Certainly could occur later as the upper trough and cold front approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Hellacious cap on 18z DVN sounding. With the overcast skies over the area for the next few hours at least, going to need strong forced ascent to break through over northern IL and southern WI. Certainly could occur later as the upper trough and cold front approach. Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I was looking at some of the storms/showers in MO and AR. Looks like there's too much shear for the CAPE (bulk richardson number too low). surface based storms are really almost non-existent now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Tornado watch issued for parts of IA/WI/MN until 11 PM central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 New Tornado Watch out pretty baseline. Mod for Tors, Low for strong Tors. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0178.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Down to 69 after that storm. Will be reflected with the 4pm observations. Unless we get some sun in the next few hours, my earlier statement probably still stands. Missed the little storm that came through because I went to a spaghetti dinner this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Down to 69 after that storm. Will be reflected with the 4pm observations. Unless we get some sun in the next few hours, my earlier statement probably still stands. Missed the little storm that came through because I went to a spaghetti dinner this afternoon. I concur with that. Clouds all day - now showers in NC/NW IL look to spread into the area and stabilize things. If it does clear out it will probably be after 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Down to 69 after that storm. Will be reflected with the 4pm observations. Unless we get some sun in the next few hours, my earlier statement probably still stands. Missed the little storm that came through because I went to a spaghetti dinner this afternoon. That's not that big of a drop. I think there is a difference between stabilization from a large MCS and cooling due to a localized tstorm. Much harder to overcome the former and get new development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Plenty of subtle backing of the surface flow across IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 414 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NORTH OF GHENT...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARSHALL. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. AT 411 PM...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 4 TO 7 MILES NORTH OF GHENT. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL LYON COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Looks like initiation is starting to go around Ft. Dodge and Algona IA, and several new surface-based cells about 70 miles west of Minneapolis. Cells west of Minneapolis should track toward low-instability area very quickly. Maybe this is the beginnings of some supercells in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. From the SPC mesoanalysis, it looks like areas east of Rochester MN over to Green Bay are pretty prime for supercells. For all you chasers who want to drive 95mph to catch these cells, have at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 152122Z - 152245Z ADDITIONAL WWS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY EAST OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE ARKLATEX IS STILL FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH...AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN 50-60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS LOCALLY ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES/ISOLATED TORNADOES... STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE...AND CONTRIBUTE TO NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE LINE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN NOW AND 00-02Z. ..KERR.. 04/15/2012 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...LZK... SGF...SHV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Another rapid mover BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 424 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... WESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 422 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELDON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 90 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Back to 70.9F now, maybe I underestimated the impact this warm sector airmass could have even with no sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Back to 70.9F now, maybe I underestimated the impact this warm sector airmass could have even with no sunshine. Yes, temps today have actually gone up under the cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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