OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 meanwhile up north... http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0291.html and the sfc obs up here... low to mid 70's up on the trans-canada highway from brandon to thunder bay in late march? severe hail possible in ND and maybe even southern MB/nw ON? could be an interesting night up here as well, depending on timing. I know we had talked about possibly the northern Plains being a little more active this year. I don't think we thought March though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The area to watch this evening is from Laredo to Del Rio and on E toward San Antonio. The cap has broken @ DRT with a temp of 86F and further S in LRD it's 93F.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The area to watch this evening is from Laredo to Del Rio and on E toward San Antonio. The cap has broken @ DRT with a temp of 86F and further S in LRD it's 93F.... I think you may be right. And a number of models/progs were depicting 00z through 06 as the time of greatest potential. May be due to the incoming jet and the final breaking of this cap. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 New severe t-storm watch coming out for OK/AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 From research, have timed energy peak for 02z with southwest vector of enhancement. Probably means that the cells now passing Sonora will feed into a tornadic cluster south of ABI-FTW near or east of Brownwood TX with large-scale development (F2-3) likely around 23z-01z, Dallas-Fort Worth south to 50w Waco would be the zone for max tornadic risk. Mostly heavy rain event north of TX-OK border with isolated severe storms (mainly F0-1) in s MN and e IA, e MO and AR. Texas activity will likely persist overnight with heavy rainfalls developing from cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Eh, the convection south of the TOR-warned cell is already setting up in a linear fashion. We need to get something discrete, but all the stuff is going linear and throwing out outflow boundaries before it even reaches the area of best dynamics. There will still probably be some impressive hail reports from down that way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Junction better watch out. Tor warned cell is linked to the squall's outflow boundary which is nearly stationary over the town attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkylerP Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 From research, have timed energy peak for 02z with southwest vector of enhancement. Probably means that the cells now passing Sonora will feed into a tornadic cluster south of ABI-FTW near or east of Brownwood TX with large-scale development (F2-3) likely around 23z-01z, Dallas-Fort Worth south to 50w Waco would be the zone for max tornadic risk. Mostly heavy rain event north of TX-OK border with isolated severe storms (mainly F0-1) in s MN and e IA, e MO and AR. Texas activity will likely persist overnight with heavy rainfalls developing from cluster. Where is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 A discrete cell looks to be forming south of Uvalde and east of Eagle Pass ahead of the boundary. Maybe...just maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Decent couplet west of Junction, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 S Central Texas could really light up soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 S Central Texas could really light up soon... Maxed out close to San Antonio, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 0-3 km SRH Bullseye over and just west of San Antonio. That Crystal City cell is growing fast (hail marker up to 1.00" now) and moving into that area of maximized shear. I'd be flying towards it right now. And there's a new cell popping up over Asherton. I'd definitely be headed west on I-10 right now out of SAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The cell that has my interest is the one south of Uvalde, seems to be exibiting some rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 97 kt couplet at 5700 ft AGL crossing I-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Cell west of Rocksprings has broad rotation also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Keeping an eye SW of SAT in Zavala County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The cell south of Uvalde should be splitting soon, not surprising given the shear profiles. How this split pans out (overall destructive, dominant left mover, or dominant right mover) will be a good indicator of how good the shear profiles are down there, and therefore how significant the threat will be for San Antonio and vicinity in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 EWX extends Tornado Watch further W to the Rio Grande. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 seemed most models last few days focused in on 21z-0z and later. could see good uptick in warnings still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Rocksprings storm showing signs of life for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Looks like the Crystal City cell has split and the southern cell is becoming dominant. Still hasn't recovered to where it was 30 minutes ago though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Rocksprings storm showing signs of life for the time being. Last couple scans look decent, but the question is if it will maintain as it interacts with other boundaries/convection around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 left split southeast of Uvalde now svr warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 left split southeast of Uvalde now svr warned. Nice anticyclonic meso on that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Things getting a little more interesting in South Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Looks like the Crystal City cell has split and the southern cell is becoming dominant. Still hasn't recovered to where it was 30 minutes ago though. Looks like I spoke too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Is it me, or did the KDFX Doppler Radar (Laughlin AFB, TX)... just have a bad radar data return there on the last scan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Look out SAT area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 several cells now to watch southwest of San Antonio. That one west of Pearsall is looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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