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18-20 March 2012 severe prospects


tornadotony

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meanwhile up north...

http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0291.html

and the sfc obs up here...

low to mid 70's up on the trans-canada highway from brandon to thunder bay in late march? severe hail possible in ND and maybe even southern MB/nw ON? could be an interesting night up here as well, depending on timing.

I know we had talked about possibly the northern Plains being a little more active this year. I don't think we thought March though.

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The area to watch this evening is from Laredo to Del Rio and on E toward San Antonio. The cap has broken @ DRT with a temp of 86F and further S in LRD it's 93F.... ;)

I think you may be right. And a number of models/progs were depicting 00z through 06 as the time of greatest potential. May be due to the incoming jet and the final breaking of this cap. We will see.

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From research, have timed energy peak for 02z with southwest vector of enhancement. Probably means that the cells now passing Sonora will feed into a tornadic cluster south of ABI-FTW near or east of Brownwood TX with large-scale development (F2-3) likely around 23z-01z, Dallas-Fort Worth south to 50w Waco would be the zone for max tornadic risk. Mostly heavy rain event north of TX-OK border with isolated severe storms (mainly F0-1) in s MN and e IA, e MO and AR.

Texas activity will likely persist overnight with heavy rainfalls developing from cluster.

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Eh, the convection south of the TOR-warned cell is already setting up in a linear fashion. We need to get something discrete, but all the stuff is going linear and throwing out outflow boundaries before it even reaches the area of best dynamics.

There will still probably be some impressive hail reports from down that way though.

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From research, have timed energy peak for 02z with southwest vector of enhancement. Probably means that the cells now passing Sonora will feed into a tornadic cluster south of ABI-FTW near or east of Brownwood TX with large-scale development (F2-3) likely around 23z-01z, Dallas-Fort Worth south to 50w Waco would be the zone for max tornadic risk. Mostly heavy rain event north of TX-OK border with isolated severe storms (mainly F0-1) in s MN and e IA, e MO and AR.

Texas activity will likely persist overnight with heavy rainfalls developing from cluster.

Where is that from?

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0-3 km SRH

Bullseye over and just west of San Antonio.

srh3.gif?1332193548132

That Crystal City cell is growing fast (hail marker up to 1.00" now) and moving into that area of maximized shear. I'd be flying towards it right now.

And there's a new cell popping up over Asherton. I'd definitely be headed west on I-10 right now out of SAS.

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The cell south of Uvalde should be splitting soon, not surprising given the shear profiles. How this split pans out (overall destructive, dominant left mover, or dominant right mover) will be a good indicator of how good the shear profiles are down there, and therefore how significant the threat will be for San Antonio and vicinity in the coming hours.

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